卫星钟差预报模型的分析与比较

为了分析二次多项式模型(QP)、灰色模型(GM(1,1))、时间序列模型(ARIMA)以及小波神经网络模型(WNN)这4种模型钟差预报的效果,采用GPS提供的RTS精密钟差数据作为实验数据,通过不同数量的建模数据对4种常用模型进行建模;并预报接下来的30 min和1 h两个时长的钟差数据.据此对4种模型的钟差预报效果进行分析和比较,总结了各模型预报钟差的优点与不足.     

厦门湾海洋塑料垃圾的运动特性及输移机理

作为新型海洋污染物,海洋塑料垃圾入海通量计算过程中涉及的源汇过程、迁移途径、输运过程等尚未完全清楚,需进一步研究完善。以工业高速发展的厦门湾为研究对象,考虑潮流、入海径流、风等因素的影响,基于MIKE3软件的生物仿真模拟技术(Agent Based Modelling),模拟研究了漂浮及悬浮塑料垃圾的分布特征和迁移规律,并提出经验公式对沉积塑料垃圾的通量进行了预测。结果表明漂浮塑料垃圾在不利风、常风向和最大风的作用下集中堆积于岸线处。而悬浮塑料垃圾由海面向下呈现指数式下降的分布特征,且其水平迁移分布与潮流运动密切相关;流速小的区域悬浮塑料垃圾更容易堆积使局部浓度升高。悬浮塑料垃圾的扩散速率也与塑料颗粒的物理性质有关,沉降速度小的塑料颗粒在水中悬浮的时间更长,更容易被传输到距离污染源更远的地方。同时,研究发现沉积微塑料通量的增长规律近似为线性变化,通量大小与厦门塑料产量和厦门湾的水动力特性相关。     

国际能源贸易依赖网络特征及替代关系研究：化石能源与可再生能源

随着可再生能源成为国际能源贸易重要增长点,国家和地区间的能源贸易依赖关系也随之变化。基于2011—2020年世界能源、经济及创新指数等数据,通过社会网络分析法阐释化石能源和可再生能源的贸易情况,探讨化石能源和可再生能源贸易依赖网络的演化过程,使用 QAP回归方法定量分析化石能源贸易依赖网络和可再生能源贸易依赖网络之间的关系。结果表明：在2011—2020年,化石能源贸易的稳定性较高,而可再生能源贸易发展迅速。可再生能源贸易依赖网络展现出更高的整体依赖程度,其对化石能源贸易的依赖关系产生了替代作用。中国既要大力推进可再生能源产业发展,也要加强与能源大国的贸易合作,从而与世界建立更加稳固的双向能源贸易合作的网络关系。     

Fluid inclusion and isotope geochemistry of the Yangla copper deposit,Yunnan, China

The Yangla copper deposit, with Cu reserves of 1.2 Mt, is located between a series of thrust faults in the Jinshajiang–Lancangjiang–Nujiang region, Yunnan, China, and has been mined since 2007. Fluid inclusion trapping conditions ranged from 1.32 to 2.10 kbar at 373–409 °C. Laser Raman spectroscopy confirms that the vapour phase in these inclusions consists of CO₂, CH₄, N₂ and H₂O. The gas phases in the inclusions are H₂O and CO₂, with minor amounts of N₂, O₂, CO, CH₄, C₂H₂, C₂H₄, and C₂H₆. Within the liquid phase, the main cations are Ca²⁺ and Na⁺ while the main anions are SO₄ ^2? and Cl^?. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of the ore-forming fluids (?3.05‰?≤?δ¹⁸O_H2O?≤?2.5‰; ?100‰?≤?δD?≤??120‰) indicate that they were derived from magma and evolved by mixing with local meteoric water. The δ³⁴S values of sulfides range from ?4.20‰ to 1.85‰(average on ?0.85‰), supporting a magmatic origin. Five molybdenite samples taken from the copper deposit yield a well-constrained ¹⁸⁷Re–¹⁸⁷Os isochron age of 232.8?±?2.4 Ma. Given that the Yangla granodiorite formed between 235.6?±?1.2 Ma and 234.1?±?1.2 Ma, the Cu metallogenesis is slightly younger than the crystallization age of the parent magma. A tectonic model that combines hydrothermal fluid flow and isotope compositions is proposed to explain the formation of the Yangla copper deposit. At first, westward subduction of the Jinshajiang Oceanic Plate in the Early Permian resulted in the development of a series of thrust faults. This was accompanied by fractional melting beneath the overriding plate, triggering magma ascent and extensive volcanism. The thrust faults, which were then placed under tension during a change in tectonic mode from compression to extension in the Late Triassic, formed favorable pathways for the magmatic ore-forming fluids. These fluids precipitated copper-sulfides to form the Yangla deposit.