规划实施动态评估技术支撑体系研究

主要研究城乡规划实施动态评估技术支撑体系,将传统评估数据与城市动态数据相结合,将空间地理数据与社会属性数据相结合,将城市定量工具分析与专家经验分析相结合,最终实现了规划动态评估新模式;主要从城市发展现状动态监测、数据挖掘、动态评估工具及系统构建3个方面阐述城乡规划实施动态评估支持技术体系的关键技术及应用模式。     

河北保定气象站长序列气温资料缺测记录插补和非均一性订正

基于多源的气温月值资料,在数据整合和初步质量控制基础上,同时采用标准化序列法和多元线性回归法对河北保定气象站1913-2014 年月平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料进行了插补。通过交叉检验法分析发现,标准化序列法插补得到的气温序列效果较好,并且气候统计特征与同区域周边站的研究结果更具一致性。利用惩罚最大F 检验（PMF）对插补后序列的均一性进行了检验,结果表明：通过插补得到的保定站百年气温月值序列的均一性相对较好,仅月平均最低气温序列存在2 个显著间断点,分别由同类型仪器的更换和台站迁移导致,研究中采用分位数匹配（QM）对其进行了订正,建立了保定站百年气温月值序列。通过与邻近单站及我国中东部区域均一化百年气温序列的综合对比显示,本文建立的保定站百年气温月值序列与邻近单站的相关性基本达到0.8 以上;从增暖趋势来看,保定站与中东部区域平均序列分别达0.121 ℃/10a、0.204 ℃/10a,基本在同一量级内：这一定程度上说明建立的保定站百年气温序列相对合理。     

长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响

选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库：以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明：随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。     

Long-term variation in the salinity of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass, 1976–2006

This paper discusses the long-term variation in the salinity of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (SYSCWM) and examines factors influencing the SYSCWM based on hydrographic datasets of the China National Standard section and the Korea Oceanographic Data Center. The mean salinity at the center of the SYSCWM showed a decreasing long-term trend. In empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the second EOF mode showed a similar long-term trend. The mean salinity of the center of the SYSCWM was related to the intrusion of saline water from the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), the salinity of the source area of the YSWC, the evaporation minus precipitation (E–P) flux, and discharge from the Changjiang River. The decreasing salinity trend to the southwest of Cheju Island produced a freshening trend in the YSWC, resulting in a reduction in the salinity of the SYSCWM. The freshening trends of the water from the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea were seen as the reason for the decreasing salinity trend from the intrusion of water into the Yellow Sea (YS). The freshwater flux influenced the surface salinity and was brought to deep layers by strong mixing in winter. The mean E–P flux signal and Changjiang River discharge signal lagged the first principal component of the SYSCWM by approximately 5 months.     

Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

黑河下游尾闾区植物群落物种多样性与稳定性格局

黑河下游尾闾区作为西北干旱区典型的脆弱生态系统,其植物群落物种多样性与稳定性对维持该地区生态安全和可持续发展具有重要意义.以黑河下游尾闾区荒漠植被为研究对象,采用K-Means聚类,基于距河道距离及其对应的土壤含水量数据,将黑河下游尾闾区垂直于河道0-4 km区域可分为距河0-0.3 km(T0-03)、0.3-1.7...     

基于手绘草图的北京居民认知地图变形及因素分析

认知地图是外界环境在人们头脑中的表征, 往往与现实地图不一致, 研究认知地图及 其变形对城市规划和建设具有重要意义。手绘草图是当前挖掘认知地图的一种主要方法。通 过问卷调查, 获得北京居民手绘草图样本, 分析草图中体现的北京城市意象要素。采用二维 回归(BR) 与标准偏差椭圆方法定量测度认知地图整体和局部的变形。对于二维回归计算出 的变形系数(DI) 进一步采用蒙特卡罗模拟计算其变形半径, 得出北京居民的认知地图平均变 形在2-3 km, 整体变形以二环为界, 内小外大, 并呈西南-东北斜向拉伸, 东西收缩的趋 势, 局部变形北部大于南部。个体的变形系数与对地标的熟悉程度负相关, 男性小于女性, 驾车者小于不驾车者, 日常活动范围越广、出行频率越高、居住时间越久、距离锚点越近的 被试认知变形越小。     

用ＯｐｅｎＦＯＡＭ 实现数值水池造波和消波

基于OpenFOAM求解器interDyMFoam,开发实现数值水池造波(包括推板和摇板造波)和阻尼消波。所编写的造波边界条件,可依据实验造波理论将各种造波模式植入其中,从而实现各种波的数值造波。首先进行了线性波的数值造波实验,通过结合阻尼消波段的应用,造波水池可提供稳定的线性波。还进行了瞬时极限波和有限振幅的数值造波实验,与实验数据或同类数值结果吻合很好,进一步验证了的数值造波和消波方式的可靠性。     

四川尖山晶质石墨矿床碳同位素特征及成因

四川尖山晶质石墨矿床大地构造位于扬子陆块区上扬子古陆块米仓山—大巴山基底逆冲带之米仓山基底逆冲带,是我国重要的晶质石墨矿床之一。为确定尖山晶质石墨矿床炭质来源和矿床成因类型,通过石墨矿C同位素测试,结合野外地质特征调查和矿物特征,综合分析认为尖山石墨矿床主要赋存在中元古界火地垭群麻窝子组中,矿区出露的吕梁期侵入岩体与麻窝子组呈侵入接触关系。石墨矿体主要赋存在麻窝子组白云岩内的构造角砾岩中,含矿岩石以含石墨构造角砾岩为主,含石墨片岩和含石墨白云质大理岩次之。石墨矿物多呈鳞片集合体状或不规则细脉状,大多数鳞片片径＜0.15 mm。矿石固定碳质量分数在2.39%～17.72%之间,平均值为8.40%。石墨矿δ13C测试值在-15.01‰～-19.96‰之间,平均值为-17.42‰,表明石墨炭质来源为有机碳。综合推测尖山石墨矿床为有机成因的接触变质-区域变质叠加复合型晶质石墨矿床。     

海床基自动监测平台技术的研究应用

介绍了海床基自动监测技术国内外进展，就海床基自动监测平台系统的关键技术进行了论述。海床基自动监测平台系统是携带众多海洋环境观测传感器在海底工作的、自容式综合测量装置。它可布设于河口、港湾或者近海海底，对悬浮泥沙参数、海洋动力参数、温、盐和水质进行长期、同步、自动测量；系统回收后，通过系统软件建立各种海洋动力条件下特别是大风浪条件下悬浮泥沙的运移规律；建立温、盐、水位、流速剖面和通量、水质的时空变化规律。将多个站点的监测数据进行综合处理建立起海洋水体交换生态环境的时空联系，为科学地管理、治理和利用海洋自然环境造福人们提供决策依据。