内蒙古地区T639气象要素预报性能评估检验

通过T639模式预报产品在内蒙古地区降水量、2 m温度、相对湿度和10 m风向、风速及降水过程预报效果的适用性研究,得出以下结论,温度和相对湿度预报的准确率较风向、风速明显偏高,温度和相对湿度预报的误差系统偏小,风速预报误差偏大的概率较大;降水量的预报准确率随降水等级增加而递减,对小雨而言,模式漏报率小于空报率,多报降水的偏差和少报降水的偏差相近。在预报要素空间分布上,风向预报的偏差顺时针偏转,其夹角小于45°,温度预报偏差总体偏小,相对湿度预报偏差由西向东表现为“+、-、+、-”的分布特征;小雨和中雨落区预报偏大,暴雨落区预报偏小;贝加尔湖冷涡强度的预报偏强,西太平洋副热带高压的强度预报偏弱,影响范围偏西偏北。     

湖南南岳岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及其地球化学特征

提要：分布于湖南衡山的南岳岩体,侵位于新元古代冷家溪群中,为复式岩体。通过锆石U-Pb年龄测定,其锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄为（215.5±1.5）Ma,主体形成于晚三叠世;其中部分小岩体形成于早白垩世,锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄为（140.6±0.8）Ma。晚三叠世花岗岩由三个岩石单元组成,第一期细中粒斑状角闪石黑云母二长花岗岩、第二期中细粒黑云母二长花岗岩、第三期二云母二长花岗岩;早白垩世花岗岩为二云母二长花岗岩。晚三叠世花岗岩属过铝质高钾钙碱性系列;早白垩世花岗岩属强过铝质高钾钙碱性系列。岩石明显富集大离子亲石元素,亏损高场强元素;∑REE中等（92.88×10^-6~296.56×10^-6）,Eu均为弱负异常(δEu=0.28~0.87),其中早白垩世花岗岩Eu亏损更大;ISr值较大（0.7093~0.7189）;低εNd（-8.04~-11.38）, 高T2DM（1.63 ~1.90 Ga）。综合研究表明,南岳花岗岩石为壳源含白云母过铝花岗岩类（MPG）,为华南前寒武系基底重熔而成,晚三叠世花岗岩有少量下地壳或地幔物质加入;其形成的构造背景应为碰撞造山作用晚期或结束时期,是陆内碰撞造山作用增温减压体制下的产物。     

东亚梅雨锋暴雨研究进展

对梅雨锋的大尺度环流、梅雨锋的次天气尺度和中尺度特征、梅雨锋低空急流和暴雨发展等问题的研究进展作了概述，对低空急流和暴雨发展的各种观点进行了评述，并提出了新的见解和研究结果。     

The status of the ecological environment and a proposed protection strategy in Sanya Bay,Hainan Island,China

Sanya Bay encompasses a high diversity of natural habitats, ranging from coral reefs, rocky and sandy shores and mudflats to mangroves. Seasonal physicochemical and biological investigations were conducted from 1998 to 1999 and again in April 2000. Water-related environmental quality in Sanya Bay is in good condition. The levels of dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus and heavy metals are within the first class of National Seawater Quality Standards for China. Annual mean values of chlorophyll a of 0.93 mg m(-3) and phytoplankton primary productivity of 440.8 mgC m(-2)d(-1), respectively, were found in the waters, both of which show a significant correlation with inorganic nitrogen. A mean new productivity of 144.6 mgC m(-2) d(-1) was recorded in summer. Sanya Bay is rich in natural resources and biodiversity with 235 species of phytoplankton and 129 species of zooplankton identified in the survey. The annual mean abundance of phytoplankton and zooplankton were 1564 x 10 cells m(-3) and 121 individuals m(-3), respectively, with an annual mean zooplankton biomass of 129 mg m(-3). A total of 243 species of fish were sampled in the survey including many of high economic value. Three hundred and eighty-four species of benthos in 121 families were found by mud sampling and trawling. The average biomass of benthic organisms was 11.55 gm(-2), with a density of 31 individuals m(-2). Molluscs were the dominant group, followed by crustaceans; coelenterates exhibited the lowest biomass. One hundred and twenty-six species from 48 families of intertidal organisms were collected by frame sampling, with a mean annual biomass of 644.7 gm(-2) and average density of 816 individuals m(-2). The highest biomass of 1673.5 gm(-2) was collected in a coral reef region, while the highest density of 1219 individuals m(-2) occurred in a mangrove region. The coastline is characterized by coral reefs that accounts for 30% of the total coastline length in the bay, so coral reefs are a key ecosystem that are important for maintaining the regional marine resources and biodiversity. We need to pay much more attention to such diverse marine resources to maintain the integrity and function of these coastal ecosystems.     

Reducing standard errors by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into a measurement scheme for soil carbon credits

Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract.     

A study of coral reef resilience and implications of adaptive management and rehabilitation in Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam

The Province of Khanh Hoa, Vietnam, is located in the western South China Sea and boasts a shoreline of 385 km and many islands. Previous studies have indicated the extreme diversity and abundance of coral reefs in its waters as compared with other coastal provinces of Vietnam. A study on the resilience of coral reefs against increased surface water temperature and anthropogenic impact is conducted at 19 reef sites in 2015. At each site, a series of parameters (e.g., coral covers, genus diversity, and coral recruitment, substratum heterogeneity, depth, water exchange level, and sediment deposit and water temperature) are measured quantitatively or semi-quantitatively. The measured data are rated based on the relationship between the parameter values and coral susceptibility; the consideration that reef health reflects the biological capability to adapt to environmental changes and the recruitment potential if bleached; and positive or negative influences of physical factors in the mitigation of thermal stress and protecting corals from bleaching. A cumulative analysis enables researchers to divide the studied reefs into four categories based on varying levels of reef health to support resilience, recovery, and vulnerability in the case of increased water temperature. Relevant management interventions for each category and other supporting activities are suggested to enhance management effectiveness and to plan the rehabilitation of coral reefs for biodiversity conservation and touristic development, taking into account the involvement of related stakeholders.     

Seasonal dynamics influencing coastal primary production and phytoplankton communities along the southern Myanmar coast

Myanmar is tenth among the world’s fish-producing countries and third in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). To understand the mechanisms underlying the high production, oceanographic and phytoplankton surveys, including primary productivity measurements based on pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, were conducted near an active fishing ground near Myeik City. Three surveys, one in each of the representative seasons and covering the characteristic coastal environments, showed well-defined seasonality in primary production and phytoplankton occurrence. End of the dry season was the most productive, with productivity of 2.59 ± 1.56 g C m^?2 day^?1 and high concentration of chlorophyll a (3.14 ± 2.64 µg L^?1). In this season, the phytoplankton population was dominated by high densities of the diatoms Bellerochea horologicalis and Chaetoceros curvisetus, whereas primary productivity was low at the onset of the dry season, 1.36 ± 0.77 g C m^?2 day^?1. However, this low primary production might be compensated by activation of microbial food chains originating from high dissolved organic carbon. The rainy season exhibited the lowest production, 6.6% of the end of the dry season, due to the extensive discharge of turbid water from the rivers which lowered euphotic layer depth and resulted in an unusually high diffuse attenuation coefficient of 2.30 ± 1.03 m^?1. This incident of turbid water may be related to soil erosion from deforestation and mangrove deterioration. This research reveals the seasonal trend in Myanmar’s coastal productivity and its relationship to the tropical monsoon climate as well as emphasizing the importance of tropical coastal environments to the sustainability of the fisheries.     

传统村落理水生态智慧数字化解析——以江西流坑村为例（英文）

在传统村落长期除水害、兴水利的营建与发展过程中,通过适应天然水体和利用地域水系形成了一整套成熟的策略,有着朴素的理水生态智慧。本研究从村落水系格局梳理、空间特征计算、水环境量化三个方面,对江西流坑村的理水策略和效果做出定性和定量的分析,探索村落理水研究的技术方法和潜力。研究结果表明,流坑村具有源头引水—中程排水—末端调蓄的层次清晰的水系格局：通过三维点云计算可知,其选址精确利用了微地形,采用多水源理水策略,形成了一个有机的水系格局,为村落各类需求提供了充足水源;采用双水源理水策略;村中塘湖可容纳83.0%的雨水,且植被面积约占村落总面积的34.7%,具有较高的地表渗透率,中程排水效果甚佳;通过水环境质量检测可知,其塘湖水体环境质量良好,末端调蓄功能较强。该研究旨在填补以往对传统村落理水非量化研究的空缺,挖掘传统村落隐没的信息和价值,加深人们理解传统村落水利统筹、布局和营建的生态智慧,实现传统村落水利文化遗产保护与现代利用的双赢,为我国村镇聚落发展建设过程中妥善处理雨洪问题、实现水资源可持续、保护生态环境提供有益启示和借鉴。     

华南前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及成因

应用福建、广东、广西243个气象站1961-2012年逐日降水资料,构建华南前汛期暴雨强度指数,揭示了前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及其可能机理。研究表明:前汛期持续性暴雨经历了多发（1961-1972年）-少发（1973-1991年）-多发（1992-2012年）3个阶段,目前仍处于多发期,具有持续时间较长且强度增强的特点;由于前汛期降水的低频振荡受热带低频信号北传的调制,因此,导致这种显著年代际变化的可能成因是热带低频信号北传的周期和强度的年代际差异,当热带低频信号北传至华南时低频周期长（短）且强度强（弱）,则前汛期易出现持续时间长（短）且强度强（弱）的持续性暴雨。     

大气热源30～60天振荡与华南6月旱涝的关系

利用1958—2000年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和华南测站降水资料,分析了大气热源30～60 d振荡对华南6月旱涝的影响。结果表明,在涝(旱)年对流层低层,南海至日本东南面的西北太平洋(WNP)是一个异常的低频反气旋(气旋),伴随有异常的低频热汇(热源)区,华南至日本南部存在一个异常气旋(反气旋),对应于异常的低频热源(热汇)区,华南地区低层异常辐合(辐散);平均而言,旱年华南5—6月30～60 d振荡的位相演变要比涝年的偏晚约7～11天;涝年,低频热源和气旋从南海南部北传和从西太平洋暖池区西北传,以及从140°E附近WNP的西传都十分明显,它们对华南6月降水偏多有非常重要的影响。而旱年南海及邻近区域的低频热源和气旋北传较涝年偏晚,WNP上低频热源的西伸不明显。前期南海低频热源推进的迟早以及热带WNP上的低频热源是否西传对华南6月的降水有显著影响。