Study of CME Propagation in the Inner Heliosphere: SOHO LASCO, SMEI and STEREO HI Observations of the January 2007 Events

We are investigating the geometric and kinematic characteristics of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using data obtained by the LASCO coronagraphs, the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI), and the SECCHI imaging experiments on the STEREO spacecraft. The early evolution of CMEs can be tracked by the LASCO C2 and C3 and SECCHI COR1 and COR2 coronagraphs, and the HI and SMEI instruments can track their ICME counterparts through the inner heliosphere. The HI fields of view (4?–?90°) overlap with the SMEI field of view (>?20° to all sky) and, thus, both instrument sets can observe the same ICME. In this paper we present results for ICMEs observed on 24?–?29 January 2007, when the STEREO spacecraft were still near Earth so that both the SMEI and STEREO views of large ICMEs in the inner heliosphere coincided. These results include measurements of the structural and kinematic evolution of two ICMEs and comparisons with drive/drag kinematic, 3D tomographic reconstruction, the HAFv2 kinematic, and the ENLIL MHD models. We find it encouraging that the four model runs generally were in agreement on both the kinematic evolution and appearance of the events. Because it is essential to understand the effects of projection across large distances, that are not generally crucial for events observed closer to the Sun, we discuss our analysis procedure in some detail.     

Simulations of the impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon with modern and mid-Holocene orbital forcings

The impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon in modern (0 kyr) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr) climates are investigated by contrasting simulations with and without dynamic vegetation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.According to a dynamic index of South Asian summer monsoon, it has been found that the strengths of interannual and interdecadal westerly wind tend not to be affected by the dynamic vegetation over South Asia in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. However, based on a dynamic index of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, the strengths of tropical westerly wind and south–north cross-equatorial transport are weakened over the tropical western Pacific in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests the impact of dynamic vegetation is more obvious for the WNP monsoon than for the South Asian monsoon. Also, it implies the impact of dynamic vegetation on the interannual and interdecadal circulations is distinctly regional.Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows that the impact of dynamic vegetation can remodel the leading correlation mode (SVD1) between precipitation and surface temperature. All of the interannual and interdecadal precipitation patterns with and without the impact of dynamic vegetation are associated with positive anomalies over India and southeastern China. However, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (keep) the positive interannual temperature anomalies of SVD1 over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce the anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and WNP for 6 kyr. Furthermore, the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies always dominate the tropics for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests La Niña-like SST anomalies are the important mechanism to induce the above-mentioned precipitation pattern no matter whether for 0 kyr or for 6 kyr. For the interdecadal surface temperature pattern of SVD1, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (reduce) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce (keep) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 6 kyr. Also, all of the above implies the impact of dynamic vegetation is a mechanism to induce the long-term change of leading interannual and interdecadal surface temperature pattern over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and/or WNP.     

Evaluation of coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene using palaeovegetation data from the northern hemisphere extratropics

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.     

The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system

This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigate future land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate, technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours has been replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides the user with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easily which factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines a model of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth, flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausible futures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20–50 years. The model examines the East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a grid resolution of 5 × 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely cropping and its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable, intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint the metamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine how product prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the study show that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range of scenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s High climate scenario – almost certainly due to the low yield in the drier conditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes, though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the 2050s High climate scenario combined with the “Regional Stewardship” (environmental) socio-economic scenario. The effects of the predicted changes in land use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly, particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effects from increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with the Regional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), which users who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areas for future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction and the accuracy and detail of the modelling, are considered.     

Transient Structures and Stream Interaction Regions in the Solar Wind: Results from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation, STEREO HI and Venus Express ASPERA-4 Measurements

We discuss the detection and evolution of a complex series of transient and quasi-static solar-wind structures in the days following the well-known comet 2P/Encke tail disconnection event in April 2007. The evolution of transient solar-wind structures ranging in size from <10⁵ km to >10⁶ km was characterised using one-minute time resolution observation of Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) made using the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar system. Simultaneously, the global structure and evolution of these features was characterised by the Heliospheric Imagers (HI) on the Solar TERrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft, placing the IPS observations in context. Of particular interest was the observation of one transient in the slow wind, apparently being swept up and entrained by a Stream Interaction Region (SIR). The SIR itself was later detected in-situ at Venus by the Analyser of Space Plasma and Energetic Atoms (ASPERA-4) instrument on the Venus Express (VEX) spacecraft. The availability of such diverse data sources over a range of different time resolutions enables us to develop a global picture of these complex events that would not have been possible if these instruments were used in isolation. We suggest that the range of solar-wind transients discussed here may be the interplanetary counterparts of transient structures previously reported from coronagraph observations and are likely to correspond to transient magnetic structures reported in in-situ measurements in interplanetary space. The results reported here also provide the first indication of heliocentric distances at which transients become entrained.     

Using high resolution satellite imagery to estimate cropped area in Guatemala and Haiti

Guatemala and Haiti are two of the most food insecure nations in the Western Hemisphere. Measurements of food availability and access are instrumental in developing targeted hunger reduction strategies yet no estimates of cropped area (a critical input in the calculation of food production) at either a national or sub-national-level exist. The purpose of this research is to produce estimates of cropped area for Guatemala and Haiti using an area frame sampling approach and very high resolution (∼1 m) satellite imagery. Related research has combined livelihood data with topographic information to construct cropped area estimates in other settings using generalized additive models. We expand this approach with the inclusion of specific population variables in place of the livelihood data. We produce estimates of cropped area for the two countries and sub-national units and our results highlight the significance and complexity of incorporating explicit population characteristics into models of cropped area.     

Evidence for ponding and catastrophic floods in central Valles Marineris, Mars

The Valles Marineris canyon system of Mars is closely related to large flood channels, some of which emerge full born from chaotic terrain in canyon floors. Coprates Chasma, one of the largest Valles Marineris canyons, is connected at its west end to Melas Chasma and on its east end to chaotic terrain-filled Capri and Eos Chasmata. The area from central Melas to Eos Chasmata contains a 1500 km long and about 1 km deep depression in its floor. Despite the large volumes of groundwater that likely discharged from chaotic terrain in this depression, no evidence of related fluvial activity has thus far been reported. We present an analysis of the regional topography which, together with photogeologic interpretation of available imagery, suggests that ponding due to late Hesperian discharge of water possibly produced a lake (mean depth 842 m) spanning parts of the Valles Marineris depression (VMD). Overflow of this lake at its eastern end resulted in delivery of water to downstream chaos regions and outflow channels. Our ponding hypothesis is motivated primarily by the identification of scarp and terrace features which, despite a lateral spread of about 1500 km, have similar elevations. Furthermore, these elevations correspond to the maximum ponding elevation of the region (−3560 m). Simulated ponding in the VMD yields an overflow point at its eastern extremity, in Eos Chasma. The neighborhood of this overflow point contains clear indicators of fluvial erosion in a consistent east-west orientation.     

Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5–14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.     

River discharge reduces reef coral diversity in Palau

Coral community structure is often governed by a suite of processes that are becoming increasingly influenced by land-use changes and related terrestrial discharges. We studied sites along a watershed gradient to examine both the physical environment and the associated biological communities. Transplanted corals showed no differences in growth rates and mortality along the watershed gradient. However, coral cover, coral richness, and coral colony density increased with increasing distance from the mouth of the bay. There was a negative relationship between coral cover and mean suspended solids concentration. Negative relationships were also found between terrigenous sedimentation rates and the richness of adult and juvenile corals. These results have major implications not only for Pacific islands but for all countries with reef systems downstream of rivers. Land development very often leads to increases in river runoff and suspended solids concentrations that reduce coral cover and coral diversity on adjacent reefs.     

Matrix-bound phosphine in sediments from Lake Illawarra, New South Wales, Australia

Matrix-bound phosphine (MBP) has been measured in sediment from two cores in Lake Illawarra on the south east coast of Australia. The sediments were also dated in the upper layers. MBP concentrations found range from 142 to 1813 ng kg⁻¹, dw (dry weight of sediment) with some values being amongst the highest ever measured. Values of MBP in deeper sediments were higher than for near surface samples, but the patterns with depth were not consistent. Strong correlations were noted between MBP and organic phosphorus (OP, r > 0.8) and with total phosphorus (TP, r > 0.7), but only moderate correlations were found with organic carbon (OC, r > 0.5). No correlations were found between MBP concentrations and the age of the sediments. It was confirmed that high MBP concentrations are indicative of a phosphorus rich environment. The results tend to support the premise that MBP is generated by microbial attack on OP under anaerobic conditions.