Predicting the Arrival Time of Shock Passages at Earth

The purpose of this parametric study is to predict the arrival time at Earth of shocks due to disturbances observed on the Sun. A 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation code is used to simulate the evolution of these disturbances as they propagate out to 1 AU. The model in Han, Wu and Dryer (1988) uses solar data for input at 0.08 AU (18 solar radii). The initial shock speed (ISS) is assumed to be constant from the corona to 0.08 AU. We investigate how variations of this ISS affect the arrival times of the shock at Earth. This basic parametric study, however, does not consider inhomogeneous background solar wind structures such as corotating interaction regions and their precursor stream–stream interactions, nor interplanetary manifestations of complex coronal mass ejecta such as magnetic clouds. In the latter case, only their associated shocks are considered. Because the ambient (pre-existing background) solar wind speed is known to affect the shock arrival time at 1 AU, we also simulated events with various background solar wind speeds (BSWS) to investigate this effect. The results show that the shock arrival time at Earth depends on the BSWS, the speed of solar disturbances, their size, and their source location at the Sun. However, it is found that for a sufficiently large momentum input, the shock arrival time at Earth is not significantly affected by the pre-existing solar wind speed.     

Updated Expressions for Determining Temperatures and Emission Measures from Goes Soft X-Ray Measurements

{We investigate the conversion of the 0.5–4 and 1–8 Å soft X-ray flux measurements made by detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) into temperature and emission measures of coronal plasma using modern spectral models and modern understanding of coronal abundances. In particular, the original analysis by Thomas, Starr and Crannell (1985) is updated to take into account the realization that coronal abundances may be quite different from photospheric abundances. An important result of this analysis is that the derived temperatures and emission measures depend strongly on the assumed abundances even at high temperatures where continuum rather than spectral lines dominates the Sun’s X-ray spectrum. This occurs because the higher coronal abundances mean that most of the continuum is due to free–bound emission processes, not free–free emission, and thus is abundance-dependent. We find significant differences between modern calculations of the temperature response of the flux measurements and the versions currently in use: for a typical flare, emission measures may be up to a factor of 4 smaller than the current software suggests. Derived temperatures are similar for both photospheric and coronal abundances for cool flares (e.g., 15 MK), but for hot flares (e.g., 35 MK) coronal abundances can lead to significantly (~25%) lower temperatures being derived.     

Magnetic Twist and Writhe of δ Active Regions

We have selected 104 active regions with a δ magnetic configuration from 1996 to 2002 to study how important a role the kink instability plays in such active regions. In this study, we employ the systematic tilt angle of each active region as a proxy for the writhe of a flux tube and the force-free parameter, α_best, as a proxy for the magnetic field twist in the flux tube. It is found that 65–67% of the active regions have the same sign of twist and writhe. About 34% (32%) of the active regions violate (follow) the Hale-Nicholson and Joy's Laws (HNJL) but follow (violate) the hemispheric helicity rule (HHR). Sixty-one (61) of the 104 active regions studied each produced more than five large flares. Active regions violating HNJL, but following HHR, have a much stronger tendency to produce X-class flares and/or strong proton events. Comparing with previous studies for active regions with well-defined (simpler) bipolar magnetic configuration, it is found that the numbers following both HNJL and HHR are significantly lower in the δ-configuration case, while numbers violating one of the laws and the rule significantly increase with the increase of the magnetic complexity of the active regions. These results support the prediction for the presence of a kink instability, that the twist and writhe of the magnetic fields exhibit the same sign for δ active regions (Linton et al., Astrophys. J. 507, 40, 1998, Astrophys. J. 522, 1205, 1999; Fan et al., Astrophys. J. 521, 460, 1999). Finally, we analyze possible origins of the twist and writhe of the magnetic fields for the active regions studied.     

Kinetic Properties of CMEs Corrected for the Projection Effect

Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with coronagraphs are subject to a projection effect, which results in statistical errors in many properties of CMEs, such as the eruption speed and the angular width. In this paper, we develop a method to obtain the velocity and angular width distributions of CMEs corrected for the projection effect, and then re-examine the relationship between CMEs and the associated flares. We find that (1) the mean eruption speed is 792 km s⁻¹ and the mean angular width is 59^∘, compared to the values of 549 km s⁻¹ and 77^∘, respectively before the correction; (2) after the correction, the weak correlation between CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak flux of the flares gets unexpectedly poorer; and (3) before correction, there is a weak correlation between the angular width and the speed of CMEs, whereas the correlation is absent after the correction.     

MAG Waves in Sunspots Umbrae: Slow Waves Leaking to the Corona

The linear oscillations of a stratified atmosphere embedded in a uniform vertical magnetic field are studied here. We use a simple theoretical model, formed by the superposition of two isothermal layers, representing, respectively, i) the photosphere and the chromosphere, and ii) the corona. The bottom layer behaves, for some modes, as a resonant cavity where MAG waves are semi-trapped. We find the existence of two types of modes: 1) Fast modes which are trapped below the transition layer, 2) Mixed modes which are resonant modes in the first layer and leak part of the energy to the corona. These mixed modes have been found to be damped in the horizontal direction and can explain the observed slow modes in the corona.     

Spectroscopic Studies of Solar Corona VII. Formation of a Coronal Loop by Evaporation

We obtained time-sequence spectroscopic observations in (Fe x) 6374 Å and (Fe xiv) 5303 Å lines successively with the 25-cm coronagraph, and narrow-band and Doppler images in 5303 Å line by the 2-D 10-cm Doppler coronagraph NOGIS at the Norikura Solar Observatory, of a coronal region for about 7 h on 9 19–20, 2001. The raster scans were obtained with a quasi-periodicity of about 14 min and NOGIS obtained the images with an interval of about 1 min. The coronal region observed showed the formation of a coronal loop by a high-speed surge in the 6374 Å line rising from one of the footpoints of the loop. Off the limb spectroscopic observations in the 6374 Å line showed large velocities along the line of sight and vertical to the solar limb at the time of formation of the loop. The 5303 Å line observations showed negligible line-of-sight velocities and low vertical velocities when compared to those in the 6374 Å line. A hump in the intensity plots in 5303 Å with height appears to move up with respect to the solar limb with an average velocity of 4km s^–1. The FWHM of the 6374 Å showed a much smaller value of about 0.7 Å near the foot point as compared to a value of 1.2 Å at larger heights at the beginning of observations. Later as the loop developed, the FWHM of 6374 Å line showed a gradual decrease along the loop up to 70 from the limb, reached a minimum value of about 0.5 Å and then increased with height during the formation of the loop; this trend lasted for about 2 h. About 3 h after the beginning of the formation of the loop, the FWHM of 6374 Å emission line showed normal values and normal rate of increase with height with some fluctuations. The FWHM of the 5303 Å line did not show such variations along the loop and showed normal decrease in FWHM with height found earlier (Singh et al., 2003a). These observations suggest that a relatively cooler plasma at a temperature of about 0.7 MK or less (corresponding to minimum value of FWHM of 0.5 Å) was ejected from the transition region with a large velocity of about 48km s^–1, heated up in the corona by some process and formed a coronal loop with a height of about 200 above the limb that had lifetime greater than 4 h. It appears that the plasma moved from one of the footpoints and the loop was formed by evaporation of chromospheric plasma. No large-scale brightening and H flare were observed in this region during the observational period of 7 h.On leave from Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore 560034, India.     

Bayesian Discovery Process Modeling of the Lower and Middle Jurassic Play of the Halten Terrace,Offshore Norway,as Compared with the Previous Modeling

A Bayesian version of the discovery process model was applied to the pre-rift Lower and Middle Jurassic play of the Halten Terrace, Mid-Norway. The Bayesian approach estimates the lognormal parameters, the discoverability parameter, and the distribution of sizes of the undiscovered fields as well as the play potential, conditioned on a discovery sequence averaging for all possible prior choices weighted by their likelihood. This approach avoids the problem of having to make arbitrary choices for the parameters. The estimates of parameters and play potential based upon the present methodology compares well with previous estimates, if the play is divided into two sub-plays representing the overpressured and normally pressured zones. These sub-plays have been estimated independently and aggregated in order to get the total undiscovered resource potential. This study estimates that the expected remaining play potential is 100 × 10⁶Sm³ o.e., about 9% of the total resources in the play. There is however a 90% chance that the remaining potential ranges from 13 to 282× 10⁶ Sm³ o.e. and a 5% possibility of exceeding this value.     

Terrain Pattern Recognition and Spatial Decision Making for Regional Slope Stability Studies

A terrain partition scheme is presented that allows the identification of regions with high landslide risk in natural terrain zones on the basis of geomorphometric criteria from moderate resolution DEMs. The key factor being the terrain segmentation to aspect regions (regions formed by points preserving the same aspect direction) instead of using an artificial regular-grid terrain partition scheme. The study area is in western Greece (NW Peloponnesus) whereas a moderate resolution digital elevation model with spacing 75 m is used. Landslide inventory analysis and knowledge conceptualization identified that the landslide susceptibility of a particular aspect region is high, if the mean elevation is low and the mean gradient is high. Each aspect region was parametrically represented on the basis of its mean gradient and elevation. The domain of each parameter was divided to seven slices (classes) on the basis of the observed density. Subsequent knowledge based mapping identified aspect regions with high landslide susceptibility for the following spatial rule: (a) “mean slope in class 6 or 7” and (b) “mean elevation in class 1 to 5”. Alternatively the rule is expressed as mean slope to be equal or greater than 15^∘ whereas mean elevation to be in the range 0 to 750 m. These identified zones correspond to regions where historical landslides occurred (populated coastal areas in the North) as well as to south regions (natural terrain zone) where no landslide record is available, because of the limitations posed by the natural terrain landslide mapping program in Greece. The presented terrain segmentation technique combined to the spatial decision-making process, provided both an object framework for integrating geomorphometric parameters and a method for landslide risk analysis in natural terrain zones.     

The Application of Basement Tectonic Research to the Development of Natural Resources—Example Midcontinent North America

An understanding of an area in four dimensions is an important factor in utilizing our natural resources. The additional aspect of change through time, particularly the tectonic processes that have shaped the architecture of an area, can influence the interpretation of the origin and characterization of a resource. An example is provided of the influence that the patterns created during the formation of the continent in central North America demonstrates the continued influence of the original tectonic features and how they have persisted through time. It is this persistence and rejuvenation, that has controlled the occurrence of many of the natural resources on which we depend. Other references are provided to specific examples of the relationships between tectonics, particularly within the crystalline basement rocks, and our natural resource system.     

Advances in the Study on Nutrient Requirements of Grouper（Epinephelus sp. ）：a Review

The paper reviews the recent advances in studying grouper nutrition requirement for the development of cost-effective and environmentally friendly artificial diets. It consists of seven parts: protein and amino acid, lipid and essential fatty acid, carbohydrate, vitamin, mineral, alternative protein source, broodstock and larval nutrition. The review provides some basic information for further investigation of nutrient requirements of groupers.