Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km²) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m²) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.     

Inter-provincial migration in Spain: temporal trends and age-specific patterns

"This paper provides interpretation of the changing patterns of internal migration in Spain at the inter-provincial scale, and new analysis of age-specific migration during the 1980s using a 10% sample of anonymised records from the 1991 census. Schedules of age-specific gross migration rates are constructed and classified according to their shape and level relative to the national schedule, and the relationships between in-migration and out-migration rates are examined for four selected age groups to demonstrate how aggregate patterns of inter-provincial migration conceal a wide diversity of age specific experience."     

Asteroseismology and interferometry

Asteroseismology provides us with a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Recent developments, including the first systematic studies of solar-like pulsators, have boosted the impact of this field of research within astrophysics and have led to a significant increase in the size of the research community. In the present paper we start by reviewing the basic observational and theoretical properties of classical and solar-like pulsators and present results from some of the most recent and outstanding studies of these stars. We centre our review on those classes of pulsators for which interferometric studies are expected to provide a significant input. We discuss current limitations to asteroseismic studies, including difficulties in mode identification and in the accurate determination of global parameters of pulsating stars, and, after a brief review of those aspects of interferometry that are most relevant in this context, anticipate how interferometric observations may contribute to overcome these limitations. Moreover, we present results of recent pilot studies of pulsating stars involving both asteroseismic and interferometric constraints and look into the future, summarizing ongoing efforts concerning the development of future instruments and satellite missions which are expected to have an impact in this field of research.     

Earliest human remains in Eurasia: New 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Dmanisi hominid-bearing levels,Georgia

Several hominid remains have been discovered in the open-air site of Dmanisi (Georgia), the oldest prehistoric site in Eurasia. Two major arguments prove that this site is close in age to the Plio-Pleistocene boundary: a Villafranchian fauna and the morphological characteristics of hominid remains recently ascribed to Homo georgicus. Direct dating of the lower hominid-bearing level was carried out on volcanic glass and minerals using the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method. The concordant results from two different sampled locations allow the determination of the age of the earliest human presence in Eurasia. This radioisotopic result strengthens the argument that the first dispersal of hominids outside Africa occurred at least 1.8 Ma ago.     

Sexual size dimorphism in calanoid copepods (Centropagidae) from Patagonia (Argentina)

Calanoid copepods of the genus Boeckella and Parabroteas (P. sarsi) are dominant in zooplankton communities of Patagonian lakes and ponds. This study addresses the occurrence of sexual size dimorphism in calanoid copepods of the genus Boeckella and in the monospecific genus Parabroteas occurring in 12 lakes and ponds of Patagonia (Argentina). The morphometric analysis performed showed that in all the species studied the female is larger than the male, although the difference in size among sexes was found to be variable between species. Interestingly, all species showed significant intraspecific stability in their sexual size dimorphism despite potential differences in their environments regarding predation pressure, environmental stability (permanent or temporary waters) and altitude distribution of populations. Finally, we discuss the potential implications of sexual dimorphism in terms of resource use and vulnerability to predation among other environmental forces which may play a role in promoting larger female to male size.     

Mineral chemistry of submarine lavas from Hilo Ridge, Hawaii: implications for magmatic processes within Hawaiian rift zones

The crustal history of volcanic rocks can be inferred from the mineralogy and compositions of their phenocrysts which record episodes of magma mixing as well as the pressures and temperatures when magmas cooled. Submarine lavas erupted on the Hilo Ridge, a rift zone directly east of Mauna Kea volcano, contain olivine, plagioclase, augite ±orthopyroxene phenocrysts. The compositions of these phenocryst phases provide constraints on the magmatic processes beneath Hawaiian rift zones. In these samples, olivine phenocrysts are normally zoned with homogeneous cores ranging from ∼ Fo₈₁ to Fo₉₁. In contrast, plagioclase, augite and orthopyroxene phenocrysts display more than one episode of reverse zoning. Within each sample, plagioclase, augite and orthopyroxene phenocrysts have similar zoning profiles. However, there are significant differences between samples. In three samples these phases exhibit large compositional contrasts, e.g., Mg# [100 × Mg/(Mg+Fe⁺²)] of augite varies from 71 in cores to 82 in rims. Some submarine lavas from the Puna Ridge (Kilauea volcano) contain phenocrysts with similar reverse zonation. The compositional variations of these phenocrysts can be explained by mixing of a multiphase (plagioclase, augite and orthopyroxene) saturated, evolved magma with more mafic magma saturated only with olivine. The differences in the compositional ranges of plagioclase, augite and orthopyroxene crystals between samples indicate that these samples were derived from isolated magma chambers which had undergone distinct fractionation and mixing histories. The samples containing plagioclase and pyroxene with small compositional variations reflect magmas that were buffered near the olivine + melt ⇒Low-Ca pyroxene + augite + plagioclase reaction point by frequent intrusions of mafic olivine-bearing magmas. Samples containing plagioclase and pyroxene phenocrysts with large compositional ranges reflect magmas that evolved beyond this reaction point when there was no replenishment with olivine-saturated magma. Two of these samples contain augite cores with Mg# of ∼71, corresponding to Mg# of 36–40 in equilibrium melts, and augite in another sample has Mg# of 63–65 which is in equilibrium with a very evolved melt with a Mg# of ∼30. Such highly evolved magmas also exist beneath the Puna Ridge of Kilauea volcano. They are rarely erupted during the shield building stage, but may commonly form in ephemeral magma pockets in the rift zones. The compositions of clinopyroxene phenocryst rims and associated glass rinds indicate that most of the samples were last equilibrated at 2–3 kbar and 1130–1160 °C. However, in one sample, augite and glass rind compositions reflect crystallization at higher pressures (4–5 kbar). This sample provides evidence for magma mixing at relatively high pressures and perhaps transport of magma from the summit conduits to the rift zone along the oceanic crust-mantle boundary. Received: 8 July 1998 / Accepted: 2 January 1999     

INTERPRETING THE LARGE LIMB ERUPTION OF JULY 9, 1982

A time series of K3 spectroheliograms taken at the Coimbra Observatory exhibits an erupting loop on the east limb on July 9, 1982 in active region NOAA 3804. The Goddard SMM Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) observations taken during this period reveal a hard X-ray flare occurring just before the loop eruption is observed, and SMS-GOES soft X-ray observations reveal a strong long-duration event (LDE) following the impulsive phase of the flare. A Solwind coronagram exhibits a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the erupting loop. H flare and prominence observations as well as centimeter and decimeter radio observations of the event are also reviewed. A large, north–south-oriented quiescent prominence reported within the upper part of the CME expansion region may play a role in the eruption as well. The spatial and temporal correlations among these observations are examined in the light of two different current models for prominence eruption and CME activation: (1) The CME is triggered by the observed hard X-ray impulsive flare. (2) The CME is not triggered by a flare, and the observed soft X-ray flare is an LDE due to reconnection within the CME bubble. It is concluded that this event is probably of a mixed type that combines characteristics of models (1) and (2). The July 9 event is then compared to three other energetic CME and flare eruptions associated with the same active-region complex, all occurring in the period July 9 through September 4, 1982. It is noted that these four energetic events coincide with the final evolutionary phase of a long-lasting active-region complex, which is discussed in a companion paper (Bumba, Garcia, and Jordan, 1997). The paper concludes by addressing the solar flare myth controversy in the light of this work.     

Proton Enhancements and Their Relation to the X-Ray Flares During the Three Last Solar Cycles

Energetic proton measurements obtained from the GOES and IMP-8 satellites as well as from ground-based neutron monitors are compared with the GOES soft X-ray measurements of the associated solar flares for the period 1975–2003. The present study investigates a broad range of phenomenology relating proton events to flares (with some references to related interplanetary disturbances), including correlations of occurrence, intensities, durations and timing of both the particle event and the flare as well as the role of the heliographic location of the designated active region. 1144 proton events of > 10 MeV energy were selected from this 28-year period. Owing primarily to the low particle flux threshold employed more than half of this number was found to be reliably connected with an X-ray flare. The statistical analysis indicates that the probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends critically on the flare's importance and its heliolongitude. In this study all flares of X-ray importance > X5 and located in the most propitious heliolongitude range, 15^∘W to 75^∘W, were succeeded by a detectable proton enhancement. It was also found that the heliolongitude frequently determines the character of the proton event time profile. In addition to intensity, duration and timing, proton events were found to be related to the other flare properties such as lower temperatures and longer loop lengths.