The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.     

Schorlomite: a discussion of the crystal chemistry, formula, and inter-species boundaries

Examination of schorlomite from ijolite at Magnet Cove (USA) and silicocarbonatite at Afrikanda (Russia), using electron-microprobe and hydrogen analyses, X-ray diffraction and Mössbauer spectroscopy, shows the complexity of substitution mechanisms operating in Ti-rich garnets. These substitutions involve incorporation of Na in the eightfold-coordinated X site, Fe²⁺ and Mg in the octahedrally coordinated Y site, and Fe³⁺, Al and Fe²⁺ in the tetrahedrally coordinated Z site. Substitutions Ti⁴⁺Fe³⁺Fe³⁺_–1Si_–1 and Ti⁴⁺Al³⁺Fe³⁺_–1Si_–1 are of major significance to the crystal chemistry of schorlomite, whereas Fe²⁺ enters the Z site in relatively minor quantities (<3% Fe). There is no evidence (either structural or indirect, such as discrepancies between the measured and calculated Fe²⁺ contents) for the presence of ^[6]Ti³⁺ or ^[4]Ti⁴⁺ in schorlomite. The simplified general formula of schorlomite can be written as Ca₃Ti⁴⁺₂[Si_3-x(Fe³⁺,Al,Fe²⁺)_xO₁₂], keeping in mind that the notion of end-member composition is inapplicable to this mineral. In the published analyses of schorlomite with low to moderate Zr contents, x ranges from 0.6 to 1.0, i.e. Ti⁴⁺ in the Y site is <2 and accompanied by appreciable amounts of lower-charged cations (in particular, Fe³⁺, Fe²⁺ and Mg). For classification purposes, the mole percentage of schorlomite can be determined as the amount of ^[6]Ti⁴⁺, balanced by substitutions in the Z site, relative to the total occupancy in the Y site: (^[6]Ti⁴⁺–^[6]Fe²⁺–^[6]Mg²⁺– ^[8]Na⁺)/2. In addition to the predominant schorlomite component, the crystals examined in this work contain significant (>15 mol.%) proportions of andradite (Ca₃Fe³⁺₂Si₃O₁₂), morimotoite (Ca₃Fe²⁺TiSi₃O₁₂), and Ca₃MgTiSi₃O₁₂. The importance of accurate quantitative determination and assignment of Fe, Ti and other cations to the crystallographic sites for petrogenetic studies is discussed.

X-ray transient sources

The galactic distribution and physical nature of X-ray transient sources is investigated. Two types of transients are considered. The observational data on 41 X-ray transient sources are given, and the average parameters of hard and soft X-ray transients are estimated.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

Sur quelques concentrations plombo-zinciferes du devonien inferieur du massif schisteux rhenan

Zusammenfassung The Lower Devonian of the Rhine Schist Massif is characterized by a fine detrital sedimentation which reflects a coastal plain environment located between the Old Red Sandstone continent in the N and the marine Bohemian Facies in the SE. Mineralisations are located within these coastal-plain sediments, especially in fractured horizons topped by pelitic and floored by sandy sediments of Sieg Emsian age. The mineralised localities occur in three zones: the districts of Bensberg, Eitorf and Mayen. The Lüderich locality (Bensberg) is the most important having approximately one million tons of Zn and Pb metal. It is localised within a zone having marked sedimentary characteristics since the Siegenian. Mineralisation occurs as penecontemporaneous lenses, fracture fillings etc, formed at abnormal contacts between lithological units having different competance during Siegenian and Lower Emsian deformation. However, locally there is lateral transition between the upper units of the sandy channel series and the lower units of the pelitic swamp facies. Vertical extension of mineralisations is strictly limited to the tectonic contact zone between the Odenspiel Sandstone and the Bensberg pelites. Study of mineralisations at various levels (mapping, morphology, structure, paragenetic and geochemical) leads to the formulation of a genetic model requiring complex fracturation at the contact between contrasting lithologies and preferential drainage through these fractured zones; metals are trapped on the sandstone floor, the pelitic roof trapping the vadose hydrothermal solutions. These basic controls seem to apply throughout the Bensberg, Eitorf and Mayen districts. On a more regional scale the age variations of the gangue sediments reflects a lateral displacement of red/grey facies limits due to coastal evolution. Thus one may demonstrate a type of mineral occurrence whose model may be that of epigenetic reconcentration within fractures affecting syngenetic geochemical anomalies.Zusammenfassung Das Unterdevon des Rheinischen Schiefergebirges wird durch eine feinkörnige detritische Sedimentation gekennzeichnet. Die Verteilung dieser detritischen Sedimente widerspiegelt eine flache Küstenlandschaft zwischen dem Kontinent des Unterrotliegenden im Norden und des Meeres mit der Böhmischen Fazies im Südosten. In diesen Schichten befinden sich gangförmige Vererzungen, die in Bruchzonen auftreten, die ein pelitisches Hangendes und ein sandsteinreiches Liegendes vom Siegen-Ems Alter haben. Die Lagerstätten kommen in drei Bezirken vor: Der Bensberger Bezirk, der Bezirk Eitorf und der Bezirk Mayen. Die Lagerstätte Lüderich (Bensberger Revier) ist die größte (ungefähr eine Million Tonnen Metall Zink+Blei). Sie befindet sich in einer Zone, in der schon in der Siegen-Stufe bemerkenswerte sedimentäre Strukturen auftreten. Die Vererzung tritt als penekonkordante Linsen, Gänge, Stockwerke in tektonischen Kontaktzonen auf. Diese Kontaktzonen befinden sich zwischen 2 verschiedenen sedimentären Einheiten, deren Gesteinseigenschaften sehr verschieden sind. Es handelt sich um Pelite mit Sandstein-Einschaltungen einerseits, die zur unteren Emsstufe gehören sollen und um fluviatile Sandsteine andererseits, die zur oberen Siegenstufe gehören sollen. Lokal ist ein lateraler Übergang durch Faziesänderung von den oberen Sandsteinen in die unteren Pelitschichten jedoch nicht unmöglich. Die Sandsteine vertreten einen fluviatilen Sedimentationsbereich, die Pelite einen sumpfigen Sedimentationsbereich. Die Vererzung (mit einer vertikalen Ausdehnung ungefähr von 300 m) tritt nur im Bereich der Kontaktzone zwischen den Odenspieler Sandsteinen und den Peliten der Unteren Bensberger Schichten auf. Die Resultate der Kartographie, der morphologischen Studie der Erzkörper, der Struktur und der Paragenese führen zu einem genetischen Modell. Dabei spielt die Anwesenheit einer Bruchstruktur an der Grenze zwischen 2 Bereichen mit verschiedenen lithologischen Eigenschaften eine Hauptrolle für die Konzentration der im Hangenden fein verteilten Metalle. Die hydrothermalen Lösungen kommen demnach nicht von der Teufe, sondern aus dem Nebengestein. Im ganzen Bensberger Erzrevier wie in der Gegend von Eitorf und in der Gegend von Mayen finden wir dieselben Leitfäden für die Vererzung in den Lagerstätten und Vorkommen. Beobachtet man die ganze Provinz, dann merkt man, daß die Altersverschiedenheiten in den Nebengesteinen der verschiedenen Lagerstätten eine geographische Wanderung der Faziesgrenze zwischen rot und grau in dieser küstennahen Ebene Widerspiegeln. Die verschiedenen Vorkommen und Lagerstätten treten immer in unmittelbarer Nähe dieser Grenze auf. Die Eigenschaften dieser Lagerstätten weisen auf eine Bildung durch eine epigenetische Umlagerung in eine gangförmige Bruchstruktur hin.     

A ten-to-twelve year variation in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere

This review paper for STIB (Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction and the Biosphere; a proposed core project for IGBP) summarizes several features of a recently discovered 10–12 year oscillation in the atmosphere on the Northern Hemisphere. The oscillation is especially strong in the stratosphere during the warmer half of the year, but it is evident in the stratosphere and troposphere also in winter if the data are grouped according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the wind in the equatorial stratosphere. During the 40 years with data available to describe the oscillation it was phase locked with the 11-year solar cycle.Affiliate Scientist, NCAR.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Artificial light at night: implications for early life stages development in four temperate freshwater fish species

Flora and fauna have both evolved under a natural cycle of light and dark. But especially in urban areas, the night is now increasingly disturbed by artificial light. Many traits and behaviours in fish are triggered by a circadian clock, for example hatching and swim bladder inflation, which predominantly take place at dusk or night. As lighting becomes brighter and extends farther into rural areas, the distinction between day and night becomes increasingly blurred. Therefore, the loss of diurnal trigger by artificial light at night was hypothesized having deleterious effects on these traits and impact fish reproduction. To assess these effects, eggs of four native freshwater fishes, Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis, roach Rutilus rutilus, bleak Alburnus alburnus and chub Leuciscus cephalus, were incubated under two different light conditions: a photoperiod of 14 h light:10 h darkness (LD) and continuous illumination (LL). The time to hatch and swim bladder inflation was recorded. The species showed inconsistent reactions to the light treatments. In roach and bleak, the time to 50% hatch was longer in LL, whereas continuous lighting had an accelerating effect in chub. Incubation in LL elongated the hatching period in perch and roach and, in perch, the onset of darkness seemed to trigger hatching. The swim bladder inflation was significantly promoted by continuous light in chub and bleak but was not affected in roach. In conclusion, nocturnal artificial illumination could have an effect on hatching and initial swim bladder filling by masking the day–night-change and thereby diminish the trigger effect. However, the reactions were species specific and the increase in variation indicated a lack of diurnal triggering, whilst a general deleterious effect of artificial light at night has not been identified on early life stages.     

Assessment of regional air pollution distribution by point cumulative semivariogram method at Erzurum urban center, TURKEY

In the assessment of air quality, regional distribution and dispersion with distance are important, together with the variations of pollutants in time. On this occasion, the point cumulative semi-variogram (PCSV) method is used in order to find simply regional distribution of pollutants of Erzurum urban centre. This method is based simply on the summation of square differences in air pollutant concentrations between different sites. Monthly regional variation maps of Erzurum are constructed by finding radius of influence (for SO₂, from 1000 m to 3500 m and, for TSP, 1000–2000 m) and PCSV scattering diagram data at different levels by using monthly average sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and total suspended particulate (TSP) matter concentrations in 2001–2002 winter season. Consequently, the air pollution distribution of Erzurum is assessed.