Monte Carlo Assessment of Sampling Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Yield in Yorkshire, England

Despite much effort over the last decade, there still remain many uncertainties in the assessed impacts of climate change on water resources. This study has carried out Monte Carlo Simulations to characterise the sampling uncertainties in assessed water resources impacts. The investigation employed data from catchments in northeast England, which incorporate water supply reservoirs. The impacts assessment used scenarios from three GCM experiments: (i) the Canadian first generation coupled model (CGCM1), (ii) the Australian first generation coupled model (CSIRO-mk2b) and (iii) the British third generation model (HadCM3). The results showed that yield impacts are subject to wide variability, irrespective of the GCM experiment, which calls for caution when using mean impacts obtained from single data record analysis for decision making.     

Regional representation of glaciers in Chandra Basin region,western Himalaya,India

Hamtah and Chhota Shigri are two nearby, well monitored glaciers of western Himalaya, lying in the same climatic zone and driven by the same climatic conditions. In this study, topographical characteristics of both the glacier have been explored to understand the role of topography in controlling the glacier response. Further, their topographical characteristics and possible response towards climatic variations have been compared with each other and also with that of the other glaciers in the basin to find out the suitability of these two glaciers to be considered as representative of the region. Multi sensor and multi temporal remote sensing data have been used to carry out to fulfill the objectives. It is found that being in the same climatic zone, the mean accumulation area ratio of Chhota Shigri is 54% and Hamtah is 11% between 1980 and 2014. In comparison to Hamtah, Chhota Shigri glacier has a small upslope area, low compactness ratio indicating the ability of the glacier to receive direct precipitation and solar radiation. The analysis revealed that the Chhota Shigri glacier has a closer resemblance with the other glaciers in the region than Hamtah glacier. Also, the topographical settings of Chhota Shigri glacier are suitable for recording and reflecting year-to-year climatic variations.     

Vertical vibration capacity of a single pile in dry sand

In this study, the dynamic response of pile foundation in dry sandy soil excited by two opposite rotary machines was considered experimentally. A small scale physical model was manufactured to accomplish the experimental work in the laboratory. The physical model consists of two small motors supplied with eccentric mass (0.012?kg) and eccentric distance (20?mm) representing the two opposite rotary machines, an aluminum shaft as the pile, and a steel plate a pile cap. The experimental work was achieved taking the following parameters into considerations: pile embedment depth ratio (L/d, where L is the pile length and d is its diameter) and operating frequency of the rotary machines. All tests were conducted in medium dense fine sandy soil with 60% relative density. Twelve tests were performed to measure the change in load transferred through the pile’s tip to the underlying soil. To predict precisely the dynamic load that will be induced from the rotary machines, a mini load cell with a capacity of 100?kg was mounted between the aluminum plate (the machine base) and the steel plate (pile cap). The results revealed that, before machine operation, the pile tip load was approximately equal to the static load (machine and pile cap), whereas during machines’ operation, the pile tip load decreased for all embedment depth ratios and operating frequencies. This reduction was due to the action of skin friction that was mobilized along the pile during operation, and as a result the factor of safety against pile bearing failure increases. For all operating frequencies and pile lengths, the factor of safety against bearing failure increased during machines’ operation, where the pile tip load became less than its value before starting operation. During operation, the skin friction resistance mobilized along pile length led to decrease the bearing load.