Site-dependent models of earthquake ground motion

Random vibration analyses of structural systems subjected to seismic loading are dependent upon the characterization of earthquake ground motion as a stochastic process. The response of structural systems to earthquakes is dependent strongly on the local geological conditions, which should be incorporated into seismological models of ground motion. In the study presented herein, three previously developed ground-motion models are adapted to incorporate site-dependent characteristics. Records obtained from two recording stations in California are used as a basis for the ground-motion models. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators are subjected to ensembles of accelerograms generated from these models, and both elastic and inelastic response are considered. Response statistics are compared to those generated by the analysis of structural response to ensembles of recorded motion from the two sites. The important features of the ground motion for effective reproduction of response statistics are identified, and observations are made on the sensitivity of specific response parameters to site-dependent characteristics of the ground motion.     

How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis

This paper analyzes the impact of climate, crop production technology, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on current and future crop yields. The analysis of crop yields endeavors to advance the literature by estimating the effect of atmospheric CO₂ on observed crop yields. This is done using an econometric model estimated over pooled historical data for 1950–2009 and data from the free air CO₂ enrichment experiments. The main econometric findings are: 1) Yields of C3 crops (soybeans, cotton, and wheat) directly respond to the elevated CO₂, while yields of C4 crops (corn and sorghum) do not, but they are found to indirectly benefit from elevated CO₂ in times and places of drought stress; 2) The effect of technological progress on mean yields is non-linear; 3) Ignoring atmospheric CO₂ in an econometric model of crop yield likely leads to overestimates of the pure effects of technological progress on crop yields of about 51, 15, 17, 9, and 1 % of observed yield gain for cotton, soybeans, wheat, corn and sorghum, respectively; 4) Average climate conditions and climate variability contribute in a statistically significant way to average crop yields and their variability; and 5) The effect of CO₂ fertilization generally outweighs the effect of climate change on mean crop yields in many regions resulting in an increase of 7–22, 4–47, 5–26, 65–96, and 3–35 % for yields of corn, sorghum, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, respectively.     

Estimating gambling venue catchments for impact assessment using a calibrated gravity model

Gambling using electronic gaming machines (EGMs) has emerged as a significant public health issue. While social impact assessments are required prior to the granting of new gaming machine licenses in Australia, there are a few established techniques for estimating the spatial distribution of a venue’s clientele. To this end, we calibrated a Huff model of gambling venue catchments based on a geocoded postal survey (n = 7040). We investigated the impact of different venue attractiveness measures, distance measures, distance decay functions, levels of spatial aggregation and venue types on model fit and results. We then compared model estimates for different behavioural subgroups. Our calibrated spatial model is a significant improvement on previously published models, increasing R² from 0.23 to 0.64. Venue catchments differ radically in size and intensity. As different population subgroups are attracted to different venues, there is no single best index of venue attractiveness applicable to all subpopulations. The calibrated Huff model represents a useful regulatory tool for predicting the extent and composition of gambling venue catchments. It may assist in decision-making with regard to new license applications and evaluating the impact of health interventions such as mandated reductions in EGM numbers. Our calibrated parameters may be used to improve model accuracy in other jurisdictions.     

World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology at the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program,Boulder, CO

Conclusion The World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, located in the NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, is committed to providing the scientific community with easy access to all paleoenvironmental data. Efforts to make archived data readily available include international coordination of data acquisition, management, and distribution, sponsoring workshops and data cooperatives to facilitate the compilation of important data sets, development of a browse and visualization software package (PaleoVu), and dispersal of archived data on magnetic media or over ANONYMOUS FTP/INTERNET. The program publishes a semi-annual newsletter that highlights latest developments and accomplishments in the area of paleoenvironmental data for global change research. Contributions to the newsletter are welcome from researchers describing their efforts to coordinate the free flow of paleoclimate data throughout the international scientific community.For information on the program or to be added to the mailing list contact Mrs Mildred England (phone: 303-497-6227; Fax: 303 497-6513; e-mail: MKE@mail.ngdc.noaa.gov), NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Paleoclimatology Program/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, 325 Broadway, E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 USA     

Holocene lake sediment records of Arctic hydrology

Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic.     

Divergent Perspectives on Water Security: Bridging the Policy Debate

Environmental policy discussion is replete with references to water security, food security, ecosystem health, community resilience, sustainable development, and sustainable urbanism. These terms are, by their very nature, ambiguous and difficult to define; they allow room, however, for a variety of actors to conceptualize water, food, ecological, economic, and urban problems in ways that allow them to move forward on contentious issues. This article focuses on the idea of water security and asks how it is conceptualized and used for regional policy debate in western Canada. We asked fifty-eight water stakeholders from the Saskatchewan River Basin to define water security, identify major barriers to security, and prioritize water problems. Responses showed there are myriad ways to think about water security, ranging from narrow conceptualizations, such as reliability, quality, and quantity, to broader sustainability perspectives about the nature of resource development and its social and economic consequences. The human dimensions of water security (governance, land use, and competing demands) were assigned higher priority than its biophysical aspects (flooding, droughts, and climate change). Framing water security to emphasize the human capacity to manage uncertain and rapid biophysical and societal change offers the opportunity to unite actors who otherwise would be separated by core environmental values, definitions of water security, provincial context (Alberta vs. Saskatchewan), and occupation.     

Characterizing spatial and temporal variation in 18O and 2H content of New Zealand river water for better understanding of hydrologic processes

Time series of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) in rivers can be used to quantify groundwater contributions to streamflow, and timescales of catchment storage. However, these isotope hydrology techniques rely on distinct spatial or temporal patterns of δ²H and δ¹⁸O within the hydrologic cycle. In New Zealand, lack of understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of δ²H and δ¹⁸O of river water hinders development of regional and national-scale hydrological models. We measured δ²H and δ¹⁸O monthly, together with river flow rates at 58 locations across New Zealand over a two-year period. Results show: (a) general patterns of decreasing δ²H and δ¹⁸O with increasing latitude were altered by New Zealand's major mountain ranges; δ²H and δ¹⁸O were distinctly lower in rivers fed from higher elevation catchments, and in eastern rain-shadow areas of both islands; (b) river water δ²H and δ¹⁸O values were partly controlled by local catchment characteristics (catchment slope, PET, catchment elevation, and upstream lake area) that influence evaporation processes; (c) regional differences in evaporation caused the slope of the river water line (i.e., the relationship between δ²H and δ¹⁸O in river water) for the (warmer) North Island to be lower than that of the (cooler, mountain-dominated) South Island; (d) δ²H seasonal offsets (i.e., the difference between seasonal peak and mean values) for individual sites ranged from 0.50‰ to 5.07‰. Peak values of δ¹⁸O and δ²H were in late summer, but values peaked 1 month later at the South Island sites, likely due to greater snow-melt contributions to streamflow. Strong spatial differences in river water δ²H and δ¹⁸O caused by orographic rainfall effects and evaporation may inform studies of water mixing across landscapes. Generally distinct seasonal isotope cycles, despite the large catchment sizes of rivers studied, are encouraging for transit time analysis applications.     

A new solid state diffusion model applied to inverse zoning and diffusion rims in minerals

Any oxide and silicate mineral which is nominally anhydrous but crystallized in the presence of H₂O incorporates traces of H₂O in solid solution. In the case of MgO it can be shown that OH^? pairs convert into H₂+O ₂ ^2? . If the H₂ molecules are lost, the O ₂ ^2? remain in the lattice as excess oxygen stabilized by excess cation vacancies. When the O ₂ ^2? anions decay either thermally or by decompression unbound O^? states (positive holes) are generated which lead to surface charges and subsurface space charge layers. Calculated space charge profiles are presented. O^? concentrations as small as 10–20 ppm suffice to create electric surface fields of the order of 4·10⁷ V·m^?1. The diffusion mechanism which derives from these premises incorporates novel features: the cation diffusion is coupled to the counterdiffusion of unbound and vacancy-bound O^? states. The cation diffusion is predicted to be very fast because first, it is field-enhanced (electrochemically driven) and second, it is not rate-limited by the intrinsic cation vacancy concentration nor by the counter-diffusion of other cations. The model may apply to cases of inverse zoning and diffusion rim formation in minerals under certain P-T conditions.     

Deciphering petrogenic processes using Pb isotope ratios from time-series samples at Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes,Central Kamchatka Depression

The Klyuchevskoy group of volcanoes in the Kamchatka arc erupts compositionally diverse magmas (high-Mg basalts to dacites) over small spatial scales. New high-precision Pb isotope data from modern juvenile (1956–present) erupted products and hosted enclaves and xenoliths from Bezymianny volcano reveal that Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes, separated by only 9 km, undergo varying degrees of crustal processing through independent crustal columns. Lead isotope compositions of Klyuchevskoy basalts–basaltic andesites are more radiogenic than Bezymianny andesites (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.850–37.903, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.468–15.480, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.249–18.278 at Bezymianny; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.907–37.949, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.478–15.487, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.289–18.305 at Klyuchevskoy). A mid-crustal xenolith with a crystallization pressure of 5.2 ± 0.6 kbars inferred from two-pyroxene geobarometry and basaltic andesite enclaves from Bezymianny record less radiogenic Pb isotope compositions than their host magmas. Hence, assimilation of such lithologies in the middle or lower crust can explain the Pb isotope data in Bezymianny andesites, although a component of magma mixing with less radiogenic mafic recharge magmas and possible mantle heterogeneity cannot be excluded. Lead isotope compositions for the Klyuchevskoy Group are less radiogenic than other arc segments (Karymsky—Eastern Volcanic Zone; Shiveluch—Northern Central Kamchatka Depression), which indicate increased lower-crustal assimilation beneath the Klyuchevskoy Group. Decadal timescale Pb isotope variations at Klyuchevskoy demonstrate rapid changes in the magnitude of assimilation at a volcanic center. Lead isotope data coupled with trace element data reflect the influence of crustal processes on magma compositions even in thin mafic volcanic arcs.