Land use and climate change on the Yamal Peninsula of north-west Siberia: some ecological and socio-economic implications

Compared to climate, land use change is expected to comprise a more important component of global change in the coming decades. However, climate is anticipated to supass land use as a factor later in the next century, particularly in the Arctic. Discussed here are the implications of land use and climate change on the Yamal peninsula of north-west Siberia, homeland of the Yamal Nenets. Since the discovery of super-giant natural gas fields in the 1960s, extensive exploration has resulted in direct withdrawal of large areas for infrastructure development and associated disturbance regimes have led to cumulative impacts on thousands of additional hectares of land. The land withdrawals have pushed a relatively consistent or increasing number of reindeer onto progressively smaller parcels of pasture. This has led to excessive grazing and trampling of lichens, bryophytes and shrubs and, in many areas, erosion of sandy soils via deflation. The low Arctic tundra lies entirely within the continuous permafrost zone and ice-rich substrates are widespread. One implication of this is that both anthropogenic and zoogenic distubance regimes may easily initiate thermokarst and aeolian rosion, leading to significant further losses of pastures. Even without industrial distubance, a slight change of the climate would result in massive thermokarst erosion. This would have negative consequences equal to or greater than the mechanical distubances described above. The synergistic effects of land use coupled with climate, change therefore have profound implication for the ecosystems of Yamal, as well as the future of the Nenets culture, society and economy.     

An assessment of chlorophyll-a concentration spatio-temporal variation using Landsat satellite data,in a small tropical reservoir

Traditional approaches to monitoring aquatic systems are often limited by the need for data collection which often is time-consuming, expensive and non-continuous. The aim of the study was to map the spatio-temporal chlorophyll-a concentration changes in Malilangwe Reservoir, Zimbabwe as an indicator of phytoplankton biomass and trophic state when the reservoir was full (year 2000) and at its lowest capacity (year 2011), using readily available Landsat multispectral images. Medium-spatial resolution (30 m) Landsat multispectral Thematic Mapper TM 5 and ETM+ images for May to December 1999–2000 and 2010–2011 were used to derive chlorophyll-a concentrations. In situ measured chlorophyll-a and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations for 2011 were employed to validate the Landsat chlorophyll-a and TSS estimates. The study results indicate that Landsat-derived chlorophyll-a and TSS estimates were comparable with field measurements. There was a considerable wet vs. dry season differences in total chlorophyll-a concentration, Secchi disc depth, TSS and turbidity within the reservoir. Using Permutational multivariate analyses of variance (PERMANOVA) analysis, there were significant differences (p < 0.0001) for chlorophyll-a concentration among sites, months and years whereas TSS was significant during the study months (p < 0.05). A strong positive significant correlation among both predicted TSS vs. chlorophyll-a and measured vs. predicted chlorophyll-a and TSS concentrations as well as an inverse relationship between reservoir chlorophyll-a concentrations and water level were found (p < 0.001 in all cases). In conclusion, total chlorophyll-a concentration in Malilangwe Reservoir was successfully derived from Landsat remote sensing data suggesting that the Landsat sensor is suitable for real-time monitoring over relatively short timescales and for small reservoirs. Satellite data can allow for surveying of chlorophyll-a concentration in aquatic ecosystems, thus, providing invaluable data in data scarce (limited on site ground measurements) environments.     

Modeling long-period noise in kinematic GPS applications

We develop and test an algorithm for modeling and removing elevation error in kinematic GPS trajectories in the context of a kinematic GPS survey of the salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Noise in the kinematic trajectory ranges over 15 cm and is highly autocorrelated, resulting in significant contamination of the topographic signal. We solve for a noise model using crossover differences at trajectory intersections as constraints in a least-squares inversion. Validation of the model using multiple realizations of synthetic/simulated noise shows an average decrease in root-mean-square-error (RMSE) by a factor of four. Applying the model to data from the salar de Uyuni survey, we find that crossover differences drop by a factor of eight (from an RMSE of 5.6 to 0.7 cm), and previously obscured topographic features are revealed in a plan view of the corrected trajectory. We believe that this algorithm can be successfully adapted to other survey methods that employ kinematic GPS for positioning.     

Geospatial data mining for digital raster mapping

We performed an in-depth literature survey to identify the most popular data mining approaches that have been applied for raster mapping of ecological parameters through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Popular data mining approaches included decision trees or “data mining” trees which consist of regression and classification trees, random forests, neural networks, and support vector machines. The advantages of each data mining approach as well as approaches to avoid overfitting are subsequently discussed. We also provide suggestions and examples for the mapping of problematic variables or classes, future or historical projections, and avoidance of model bias. Finally, we address the separate issues of parallel processing, error mapping, and incorporation of “no data” values into modeling processes. Given the improved availability of digital spatial products and remote sensing products, data mining approaches combined with parallel processing potentials should greatly improve the quality and extent of ecological datasets.     

Analysis of mean elements of three U.S. Navy navigation satellites for the period 1974–1976

Analysis of high precision 2-day mean orbital elements of several U.S. Navy navigation satellites is presented. The combined analytical-numerical method for the computation of the elements from the Defense Mapping Agency precision ephemerides is described. The precision of the semimajor axis and the inclination orbital elements are determined to be 2 cm and 0.016 respectively. The 28th degree and 27th order terms of the geopotential field are determined with the mean elements.     

Martian glaciation and the flow of solid CO2

The flow law determined experimentally for solid CO₂ establishes that a hypothesis of glacial flow of CO₂ at the Martian poles is not physically unrealistic. Compression experiments carried out under 1 atm pressure and constant strain rate demonstrate that the strength of CO₂ near its sublimation point is considerably less than the strength of water ice near its melting point. The data fit a power law “creep” equation of the form

$\text{?}\text{?}\text{= (4 × 10}{}^6\text{) σ}{}^{3.9}\text{exp}\text{(}\text{?12 200}\text{RT}\text{)}$

, where ? is compressive strain rate (sec^?1), σ is compressive stress (bars), R is the gas constant in calories per mole, and T is absolute temperature. The exponent of σ of 3.9 contrasts with a value near 3.1 for water ice, and indicates that the strain rate is somewhat more sensitive to stress for CO₂ than for water. Likewise, the low activation energy for creep, 12 200 cal mole^?1, illustrates that CO₂ is not highly sensitive to temperature and is thus likely to flow over a broad range of temperatures below its melting point. Strength values for CO₂ are of the order of one-tenth to one-third the strength of ice under equivalent conditions.A plausible glacial model for the Martian polar caps can be constructed and is helpful in explaining the unique character of the polar regions. CO₂-rich layers deposited near the pole would have flowed outward laterally to relieve high internal shear stresses. The topography of the polar caps, the uniform layering of the layered deposits, and the general extent of the polar “sediments” could all be explained using this model. Flow of CO₂ rather than water ice greatly reduces the problems with Martian glaciation. Nevertheless, problems do remain, in particular the large amounts of CO₂ necessary, the need to increase vapor pressure and temperature with depth in the polar deposits, and the lack of good observational evidence of flor features. Within the limits of the present knowledge of surface conditions of Mars, CO₂ glaciation appears to be a realistic alternate working hypothesis for the origin of the polar features.     

Scattering properties of planetary regolith analogs

The physics of scattering of electromagnetic waves by media in which the particles are in contact, such as planetary regoliths, has been thought to be relatively well understood when the particles are larger than the wavelength. However, this is not true when the particles are comparable with or smaller than the wavelength. We have measured the scattering parameters of planetary regolith analogs consisting of suites of well-sorted abrasives whose particles ranged from larger to smaller than the wavelength. We measured the variation of reflectance as the phase angle varied from 0.05° to 140°. The following parameters of the media were then deduced: the single scattering albedo, single scattering phase function, transport mean free path, and scattering, absorption, and extinction coefficients. A scattering model based on the equation of radiative transfer was empirically able to describe quantitatively the variation of intensity with angle for each sample. Thus, such models can be used to characterize scattering from regoliths even when the particles are smaller than the wavelength. The scattering parameters were remarkably insensitive to particle size. These results are contrary to theoretical predictions, but are consistent with earlier measurements of alumina abrasives that were restricted to small phase angles. They imply that a basic assumption made by virtually all regolith scattering models, that the regolith particles are the fundamental scattering units of the medium, is incorrect. Our understanding of scattering by regoliths appears to be incomplete, even when the particles are larger than the wavelength.