Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPI_JJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPI_SON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available.     

ABRASION OF THE BOTTOM OUTLETS AND ITS REPAIR IN SANMENXIA PROJECT

The Sanmenxia Project completed in 1960 is a multi-purpose hydro project with emphasis on flood control. After the expounding, serious deposition occurs in the upstream part of the reservoir and the Weihe River. The project has to be rebuilt twice in the period from 1964 to 1978. Thus the discharge capacity is greatly enlarged by excavating two side tunnels on the left bank, converting three penstocks into sluice conduits and reopening & bottom outlets formerly used for di- version. By changing the operational mode from storing water year round to stor- ing clear water during the dry season and sluicing sediment during the flood season, the sediment problem of the reservoir is largely solved and multi-purpose benefits of the project are partially retained. But the heavy sediment load still caused serious abrasion on bottom outlets and turbines, particularly on the inlet gate slot, the service gate slot and the floor. Much effort has been made to clarify the mechanism of the damage and to choose abrasion-resistant material for repair. The repair of the bottom outlets has been going on since 1980. This paper describes the abrasion on the bottom outlets in details and the subsequent repair effected.     

A condensation nuclei counter with photographic recording

Summary A condensation nuclei counter based onAitken's principle is described and depicted. It permits simultaneous observations of the graticule by two persons or the observation of the graticule by one person and the synchroeous photographic recording of the droplets on 35 mm film strip or single plates. With one exposure, the droplets on 24 squares of the millimetre graticule can be recorded so that a repetition of the necessary operations required by other counters in order to obtain an average count becomes superfluous and the time taken for one experiment is reduced to three quarters of a minute. The limitation to five droplets per square mm recommended for all hitherto existing nuclei counters with eye observations is removed when the droplets and the graticule are photographed. By the use of a special sealing arrangement and by employment of vacuum taps which proved most satisfactory with the previous construction of a photo-electric nuclei counter, leakages are practically impossible. The glass windows of the receiver are interchangeable with plates of conducting glass which can be heated by the passage of an electric current. The construction ensures that the 1 cm distance above the graticule is always maintained, independent of the tightening of the sealing arrangement. The receiver is equipped with a stirrer operated from outside by a permanent magnet. Two easily detached pumps are provided; one for purifying the air in the receiver and for the dilatation, the other for sucking the sample of impure air into the receiver. The adiabatic cooling in the receiver can be produced e. g. by means of an expansion pump. The method of measuring is discussed. Examples of records are reproduced. Applications and the development of a fully automatic recording nuclei counter are indicated.

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Zusammenfassung Ein Kernzähler, derAitkens Prinzip benützt, wird beschrieben und abgebildet. Er gestattet die gleichzeitige Beobachtung des Zählglases durch zwei Personen oder die Beobachtung des Zählglases durch eine Person und die gleichzeitige photographische Registrierung der Tröpfchen auf Kino-Normalfilm (von 35 mm) oder Platten. Miteiner Aufnahme können die Tröpfchen auf 24 Quadraten des in Quadratmillimeter geteilten Zählglases festgehalten werden, so dass eine Wiederholung der erforderlichen Operationen, welche bei allen anderen Kernzählern vorgeschrieben sind, um Mittelwerte der Einselzählungen zu erhalten, überflüssig ist und die Dauereines vollständigen Experimentes auf dreiviertel Minuten reduziert wird. Die Beschränkung auf fünf Tröpfchen per Quadratmillimeter, welche für die meisten bisherigen Kernzähler bei Augenbeobachtungen empfohlen wird, wird aufgehoben, wenn die Tröpfchen und das Zählglas photographiert werden. Durch eine spezielle Dichtungseinrichtung und durch Verwendung von Vakuum-Hähnen, welche sich bei der Konstruktion eines photo-elektrischen Kernzählers so sehr bewährt haben, ist Undichtwerden des Rezipienten praktisch unmöglich. Die Spiegelglasfenster des Rezipienten können gegen solche aus leitendem Glas ausgetauscht werden, welche mittels eines durch sie geschickten elektrischen Stromes geheizt werden können. Die Konstruktion gewährleistet, dass der Abstand (1 cm) oberhalb des Zählglases stets erhalten bleibt, unabhängig vom Drucke, der auf die Dichtung ausgeübt wird. Der Rezipient ist mit einem Rührer ausgestattet, der von aussen durch einen permanenten Magneten betätigt wird. Es sind zwei Pumpen vorgesehen, die leicht abnomontiert werden können; die eine ist für die Reinigung der Luft im Rezipienten und für die Dilatation zur Herbeiführung des Tropfenfalles bestimmt, die andere dient zum Einsaugen der zu untersuchenden Luftprobe in den Rezipienten. Die adiabatische Abkühlung im Rezipienten kann z.B. mittels der Dilatationspumpe erzeugt werden. Die Messmethode wird beschrieben. Probe von photographischen Registrierungen der Tröpfchen auf dem Zählglase werden reproduziert. Einige Anwendungen und die Entwicklung eines voll-automatisch registrierenden Kernzählers wird angedeutet.

     

Manned Testing of the Diver Gas Recovery Installation

The Diver Gas Recovery Installation (DGRI) was evaluated at 80 msw saturation - 100 msw excursion diving on HeO2 in the Naval Medical Research Institute (NMRI) of China in April, 1995. The diving depth, lockout time, breathing gas flow rate and consumption, inspired oxygen partial pressure (PO2) and carbon dioxide partial pressure (PCO2) were monitored. The results indicated that PO2 was controlled to fluctuate from 64.3 to 84.0 kPa and PCO2 went up from 0.01 kPa up to O.I kPa during 4 hours excursion diving; recovery of breathing gas reached 95%; three divers felt well and breathed comfortably during simulating heavy work. The test showed that it met desired performance goals. The DGRI is a kind of important equipment for long duration deep dive. It enables the gases exhaled by the divers to be re-cycled, and therefore it has great social, military and economic significance for diving operation and submarine rescue.     

Underwater Explosion Treatment of Marine Soft Foundation

The consolidation of soft foundation is a problem that commonly appears in harbor construction engineering on muddy coast. Introduced in this paper is the experimental study on underwater explosion treatment of soft foundation, including the regulations of explosion hollow development and medium movement, the law of similarity of densification and settlement of filled stone mass by shock wave pressure and explosion energy and their construction technologies, etc. A number of projects have been completed by applying this new technique, and the technique itself has been proved practicable.     

Safety Level and Reliability Index for Bank Slope Stability

Based on statistics and analysis of the safety factor of unstable bank slopes,the relation be-tween safety level and reliability index of stability is studied and discussed,and then the elementary cali-brating calculation is carried out to the levels of safety and reliability for bank slope stability in the rangeof safety factors stipulated in existing China Technical Specifications for Port Engineering—FoundationPart(1987)and to those reached by some stable bank slopes already built.The results show that the relia-bility index β in the effective stress method is able to reach a high value of 2.4～4.1(mid-value 3.25),while the value of β in other three kinds of total stress method can just reach a lower value of 0.5～2.8(mid-value 1.65),which are in conformity with the engineering experience in China,and thus acceptable.Some suggestions are also given in this paper to the adoption of the value of β_0—objective reliability indexfor bank slope stability.     

Water Wave Refraction and Diffraction over Frictional Topography

- This paper considers the effects of wave energy dissipation induced by sea-bottom friction on the computational results of water wave refraction and diffraction with the parabolic equation method. The presented results show that the friction factor formula adopted in this paper is of higher numerical accuracy than that introduced by Dalrymphe (1984), and it can be used to compute wave propagation over large open areas.     

Coupled BEM-FEM Analysis of the Large-Diameter Cylinder Structure System

A method of coupled BEM-FEM analysis for the elastic spatial structure system is presented. It can be applied to the calculation of the stress and deformation of the large-diamater cylinder structure system and it is suitable for symmetric or non-symmetric structures under the distributed or concentrated load. Numerical examples show that the proposed method and computer program BEFEM are quite efficient in the analysis of the large-diameter cylinder structure problems in ocean engineering.     

A New Method of Surveying Underwater Parts of Self Elevating Drilling Platform

It is a new method of surveying leg spuds of self-elevating drilling platforms to lift them out of water with the help of additional middle guide blocks. Its main advantages in comparison with other methods normally used up to now are: less expensive, time saving, no need for specially designated water area, direct visual observation, good reliability and safety. The working principle has been presented with the example of two platforms "Bohai No. 8" and "Bohai No. 10", to which the method was used. Also a comprehensive comparison with other methods in technological and economical aspects is given in the paper.     

A Numerical Model for Mixing Areas of Pollutant Discharging into Tidal Flows

- A combined numerical model for computing mixing areas of pollution vertical jet discharging into tidal flows has been developed. This numerical model is composed of a 2-D depth-averaged dynamic far-field numerical model and a 2-D vertical dynamic near-field numerical model. The former uses finite node method to compute velocity, and improved finite node method to compute pollutant concentration distribution; the latter is a k-e turbulence model, and uses SIMPLE (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations) method to compute velocity. At the same time, the former provides boundary conditions for the latter. This model can simulate both far- field pollutant concentration distribution and near-field vertical recirculation quickly and precisely. This model has been verified by measured data of pollutant F of the Dachang reach of the Changjing River and test data presented by Chen el al. (1992). On the basis of verification, the authors use a designed hydrograph to compute this mixing area for a cer