The breakdown of potassium feldspar at high water pressures

The equilibrium position of the reaction between sanidine and water to form “sanidine hydrate” has been determined by reversal experiments on well characterised synthetic starting materials in a piston cylinder apparatus. The reaction was found to lie between four reversed brackets of 2.35 and 2.50 GPa at 450 °C, 2.40 and 2.59 GPa at 550 °C, 2.67 and 2.74 GPa at 650 °C, and 2.70 and 2.72 GPa at 680 °C. Infrared spectroscopy showed that the dominant water species in sanidine hydrate was structural H₂O. The minimum quantity of this structural H₂O, measured by thermogravimetric analysis, varied between 4.42 and 5.85 wt% over the pressure range of 2.7 to 3.2 GPa and the temperature range of 450 to 680 °C. Systematic variation in water content with pressure and temperature was not clearly established. The maximum value was below 6.07 wt%, the equivalent of 1 molecule of H₂O per formula unit. The water could be removed entirely by heating at atmospheric pressure to produce a metastable, anhydrous, hexagonal KAlSi₃O₈ phase (“hexasanidine”) implying that the structural H₂O content of sanidine hydrate can vary. The unit cell parameters for sanidine hydrate, measured by powder X-ray diffraction, were a = 0.53366 (±0.00022) nm and c = 0.77141 (±0.00052) nm, and those for hexasanidine were a = 0.52893 (±0.00016) nm and c = 0.78185 (±0.00036) nm. The behaviour and properties of sanidine hydrate appear to be analogous to those of the hydrate phase cymrite in the equivalent barium system. The occurrence of sanidine hydrate in the Earth would be limited to high pressure but very low temperature conditions and hence it could be a potential reservoir for water in cold subduction zones. However, sanidine hydrate would probably be constrained to granitic rock compositions at these pressures and temperatures. Received: 6 May 1997 / Accepted: 2 October 1997     

Seismic interferometry and ambient noise tomography in the British Isles

Traditional methods of imaging the Earth's subsurface using seismic waves require an identifiable, impulsive source of seismic energy, for example an earthquake or explosive source. Naturally occurring, ambient seismic waves form an ever-present source of energy that is conventionally regarded as unusable since it is not impulsive. As such it is generally removed from seismic data and subsequent analysis. A new method known as seismic interferometry can be used to extract useful information about the Earth's subsurface from the ambient noise wavefield. Consequently, seismic interferometry is an important new tool for exploring areas which are otherwise seismically quiescent, such as the British Isles in which there are relatively few strong earthquakes. One of the possible applications of seismic interferometry is ambient noise tomography (ANT). ANT is a way of using interferometry to image subsurface seismic velocity variations using seismic (surface) waves extracted from the background ambient vibrations of the Earth. To date, ANT has been used successfully to image the Earth's crust and upper-mantle on regional and continental scales in many locations and has the power to resolve major geological features such as sedimentary basins and igneous and metamorphic cores. Here we provide a review of seismic interferometry and ANT, and show that the seismic interferometry method works well within the British Isles. We illustrate the usefulness of the method in seismically quiescent areas by presenting the first surface wave group velocity maps of the Scottish Highlands using only ambient seismic noise. These maps show low velocity anomalies in sedimentary basins such as the Moray Firth, and high velocity anomalies in igneous and metamorphic centres such as the Lewisian complex. They also suggest that the Moho shallows from south to north across Scotland which agrees with previous geophysical studies in the region.     

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Precipitation for the Southern Canadian Cordillera

This paper reconstructs precipitation variability in the southern Canadian Cordillera over the past 3–400 years using dendroclimatologicaltechniques. Fifty-three total ring-width (RW) chronologies, 28 earlywood (EW) and 28 latewood (LW) chronologies were developed from open-grown, low-elevation stands of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) and Pinusponderosa (ponderosa pine) across the southern Canadian Cordillera. RW, EW and LW chronologies from both species were used to develop 13 annual (prior July to current June) precipitation reconstructions across the region. The reconstructions range in length from 165 to 688 years, pass verification tests and capture 39–64% of the variancein the instrumental record. Coincident, prolonged intervals of dry conditions are estimated for the years: 1717–1732, 1839–1859, 1917–1941 and1968–1979. Shorter dry intervals are identified between 1581–1586, 1626–1630,1641–1653 1701–1708, 1756–1761, 1768–1772, 1793–1800,1868–1875, 1889–1897 and 1985–1989. The historic drought of the 1920–1930s was the longest but not the most intense across this area in the last 300 years. Wet conditions occur in the majority of reconstructions for the years: 1689–1700, 1750–55,1778–1789, 1800–1830, 1880–1890, 1898–1916 and 1942–1960. Thesedata, in conjunction with data from adjacent areas, are used to provide the first maps of decadal precipitation anomalies for the region between 1700 and 1990.     

The potential transient dynamics of forests in New England under historical and projected future climate change

Projections of vegetation distribution that incorporate the transient responses of vegetation to climate change are likely to be more efficacious than those that assume an equilibrium between climate and vegetation. We examine the non-equilibrium dynamics of a temperate forest region under historic and projected future climate change using the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. We parameterized LPJ-GUESS for the New England region of the United Sates utilizing eight forest cover types that comprise the regionally dominant species. We developed a set of climate data at a monthly-step and a 30-arc second spatial resolution to run the model. These datasets consist of past climate observations for the period 1901?C2006 and three general circulation model projections for the period 2007?C2099. Our baseline (1971?C2000) simulation reproduces the distribution of forest types in our study region as compared to the National Land Cover Data 2001 (Kappa statistic?=?0.54). Under historic and nine future climate change scenarios, maple-beech-basswood, oaks and aspen-birch were modeled to move upslope at an estimated rate of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5?m?yr^?1 from 1901 to 2006, and continued this trend at an accelerated rate of around 0.5, 0.9 and 1.7?m?yr^?1 from 2007 to 2099. Spruce-fir and white pine-cedar were modeled to contract to mountain ranges and cooler regions of our study region under projected future climate change scenarios. By the end of the 21^st century, 60% of New England is projected to be dominated by oaks relative to 21% at the beginning of the 21^st century, while northern New England is modeled to be dominated by aspen-birch. In mid and central New England, maple-beech-basswood, yellow birch-elm and hickories co-occur and form novel species associations. In addition to warming-induced northward and upslope shifts, climate change causes more complex changes in our simulations, such as reversed conversions between forest types that currently share similar bioclimatic ranges. These results underline the importance of considering community interactions and transient dynamics in modeling studies of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.     

The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to 1990–2000 Trends and Recent Projections

The greenhouse gas emissions scenarios published by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) continue to serve as a primary basis for assessing future climate change and possible response strategies. These scenarios were developed between 1996 and 1999 and sufficient time has now passed to make it worth examining their consistency with more recent data and projections. The comparison performed in this paper includes population, GDP, energy use, and emissions of CO₂, non-CO₂ gases and sulfur. We find the SRES scenarios to be largely consistent with historical data for the 1990–2000 period and with recent projections. Exceptions to this general observation include (1) in the long-term, relatively high population growth assumptions; in some regions, particularly in the A2 scenario; (2) in the medium-term, relatively high economic growth assumptions in the LAM (Latin America, Africa and Middle East) region in the A1 scenario; (3) in the short-term, CO₂ emissions projections in A1 that are somewhat higher than the range of current scenarios; and (4) substantially higher sulfur emissions in some scenarios than in historical data and recent projections. In conclusion, given the relatively small inconsistencies for use as global scenarios there seems to be no immediate need for a large-scale IPCC-led update of the SRES scenarios that is solely based on the SRES scenario performance vis-a-vis data for the 1990–2000 period and/or more recent projections. Based on reported findings, individual research teams could make, and in some cases already have made, useful updates of the scenarios.     

Observations of Atmospheric Methane and Carbon Dioxide Mixing Ratios: Tall-Tower or Mountain-Top Stations?

Mountain-top observations of greenhouse gas mixing ratios may be an alternative to tall-tower measurements for regional scale source and sink estimation. To investigate the equivalence or limitations of a mountain-top site as compared to a tall-tower site, we used the unique opportunity of comparing in situ measurements of methane (\(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)) and carbon dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) mixing ratios at a mountain top (986 m above sea level, a.s.l.) with measurements from a nearby (distance 28.4 km) tall tower, sampled at almost the same elevation (1009 m a.s.l.). Special attention was given to, (i) how local wind statistics and greenhouse gas sources and sinks at the mountain top influence the observations, and (ii) whether mountain-top observations can be used as for those from a tall tower for constraining regional greenhouse gas emissions. Wind statistics at the mountain-top site are clearly more influenced by local flow systems than those at the tall-tower site. Differences in temporal patterns of the greenhouse gas mixing ratios observed at the two sites are mostly related to the influence of local sources and sinks at the mountain-top site. Major influences of local sources can be removed by applying a statistical filter (\(5{\mathrm{th}}\) percentile) or a filter that removes periods with unfavourable flow conditions. In the best case, the bias in mixing ratios between the mountain-top and the tall-tower sites after the application of the wind filter was \({-}0.0005\pm 0.0010\) ppm for methane (September, 0000–0400 UTC) and \(0.11\pm 0.18\) ppm for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) (February, 1200–1600 UTC). Temporal fluctuations of atmospheric \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) and \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) mixing ratios at both stations also showed good agreement (apart from \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) during summertime) as determined by moving bi-weekly Pearson correlation coefficients (up to 0.96 for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and 0.97 for \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)). When only comparing mixing ratios minimally influenced by local sources (low bias and high correlation coefficients), our measurements indicate that mountain-top observations are comparable to tall-tower observations.     

Numerical Considerations for Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Models: Eliminating Rogue Trajectories,and the Importance of Numerical Accuracy

When Lagrangian stochastic models for turbulent dispersion are applied to complex atmospheric flows, some type of ad hoc intervention is almost always necessary to eliminate unphysical behaviour in the numerical solution. Here we discuss numerical strategies for solving the non-linear Langevin-based particle velocity evolution equation that eliminate such unphysical behaviour in both Reynolds-averaged and large-eddy simulation applications. Extremely large or ‘rogue’ particle velocities are caused when the numerical integration scheme becomes unstable. Such instabilities can be eliminated by using a sufficiently small integration timestep, or in cases where the required timestep is unrealistically small, an unconditionally stable implicit integration scheme can be used. When the generalized anisotropic turbulence model is used, it is critical that the input velocity covariance tensor be realizable, otherwise unphysical behaviour can become problematic regardless of the integration scheme or size of the timestep. A method is presented to ensure realizability, and thus eliminate such behaviour. It was also found that the numerical accuracy of the integration scheme determined the degree to which the second law of thermodynamics or ‘well-mixed condition’ was satisfied. Perhaps more importantly, it also determined the degree to which modelled Eulerian particle velocity statistics matched the specified Eulerian distributions (which is the ultimate goal of the numerical solution). It is recommended that future models be verified by not only checking the well-mixed condition, but perhaps more importantly by checking that computed Eulerian statistics match the Eulerian statistics specified as inputs.     

Use of high spectral resolution remote sensing to determine leaf palatability of eucalypt trees for folivorous marsupials

In this study we assess the feasibility of remotely measuring canopy biochemistry, and thus the potential for conducting large-scale mapping of habitat quality. A number of studies have found nutrient composition of eucalypt foliage to be a major determinant of the distribution of folivorous marsupials. More recently it has been demonstrated that a specific group of secondary plant chemicals, the diformylphloroglucinols (DFPs), are the most important feeding deterrents, and are thus vital determinants of habitat quality. We report on the use of laboratory spectroscopy to attempt to identify one such DFP, sideroxylonal-A, in the foliage of Eucalyptus melliodora, one of the few eucalypt species browsed by folivorous marsupials. Reflectance spectra were obtained for freeze-dried, ground leaves using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and for both oven-dried and fresh whole leaves using a laboratory-based (FieldSpec) spectroradiometer. Modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression was used to develop calibration equations for sideroxylonal-A concentration based on the reflectance spectra transformed as both the first and second difference of absorbance (Log 1/R). The predictive ability of the calibration equations was assessed using the standard error of calibration statistic (SECV). Coefficients of determination (r²) were highest for the ground leaf spectra (0.98), followed by the fresh leaf and dry leaf spectra (0.94 and 0.87, respectively). When applied to independent validation sub-sets, sideroxylonal-A was most accurately predicted from the ground leaf spectra (r² = 0.94), followed by the dry leaf and fresh leaf spectra (0.72 and 0.53, respectively). Two spectral regions, centred on 674 nm and 1394 nm, were found to be highly correlated with sideroxylonal-A concentration for each of the three spectral data sets studied. Results from this study suggest that calibration equations derived from modified partial least squares regression may be used to predict sideroxylonal-A concentration, and hence leaf palatability, of Eucalyptus melliodora trees, thereby indicating that the remote estimation of habitat quality of eucalypt forests for marsupial folivores is feasible.