Climate-change impacts on sagebrush habitat and West Nile virus transmission risk and conservation implications for greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are threatened by loss of sagebrush habitat and the spread of West Nile virus throughout much of their range in North America; yet, future impacts of climate change on these potential stressors have not been addressed. Here, we aim to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for sagebrush and on transmission risk for West Nile virus in the eastern portion of the species’ range. We used Maxent to model the current and future climatically suitable habitat for two dominant sagebrush species in the study area, and we used a degree-day model to predict future West Nile virus transmission risk under likely climate-change scenarios. Our models suggest that areas with the highest future suitability for sagebrush habitat will be found in southwestern Wyoming and north-central Montana. The degree-day model suggests that greater sage-grouse in western portions of the study area, which are generally higher in elevation than where West Nile virus currently occurs, will see increasing risk of transmission in the future. We developed a spatially explicit map of suggested management actions based on our predictions that will aid in conservation of the species into the coming decades.     

The Phoenix Evening Transition Flow Experiment (TRANSFLEX)

Motivated by air quality and numerical modelling applications as well as recent theoretical advancements in the topic, a field experiment, dubbed transition flow experiment, was conducted in Phoenix, Arizona to study the evening transition in complex terrain (shift of winds from upslope to downslope). Two scenarios were considered: (i) the flow reversal due to a change of buoyancy of a cooled slab of air near the ground, and (ii) the formation of a transition front. A suite of in-situ flow, turbulence and particulate matter (PM) concentration sensors, vertically profiling tethered balloons and remote sensors were deployed, and a mesoscale numerical model provided guidance for interpreting observations. The results were consistent with the front formation mechanism, where it was also found that enhanced turbulence associated with the front increases the local PM concentration. During the transition period the flow adjustment was complex, involving the arrival of multiple fronts from different slopes, directional shear between fronts and episodic turbulent mixing events. The upward momentum diffusion from the incipient downslope flow was small because of stable stratification near the ground, and full establishment of downslope flow occurred over several hours following sunset. Episodic frontal events pose challenges to the modelling of the evening transition in complex terrain, requiring conditional parametrizations for subgrid scales. The observed increase of PM concentration during the evening transition has significant implications for the regulatory enforcement of PM standards for the area.     

Irregular satellite capture during planetary resonance passage

The passage of Jupiter and Saturn through mutual 1:2 mean-motion resonance has recently been put forward as explanation for their relatively high eccentricities [Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461] and the origin of Jupiter's Trojans [Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465]. Additional constraints on this event based on other small-body populations would be highly desirable. Since some outer satellite orbits are known to be strongly affected by the near-resonance of Jupiter and Saturn (“the Great Inequality”; ?uk, M., Burns, J.A., 2004b. Astron. J. 128, 2518-2541), the irregular satellites are natural candidates for such a connection. In order to explore this scenario, we have integrated 9200 test particles around both Jupiter and Saturn while they went through a resonance-crossing event similar to that described by Tsiganis et al. [Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461]. The test particles were positioned on a grid in semimajor axes and inclinations, while their initial pericenters were put at just 0.01 AU from their parent planets. The goal of the experiment was to find out if short-lived bodies, spiraling into the planet due to gas drag (or alternatively on orbits crossing those of the regular satellites), could have their pericenters raised by the resonant perturbations. We found that about 3% of the particles had their pericenters raised above 0.03 AU (i.e. beyond Iapetus) at Saturn, but the same happened for only 0.1% of the particles at Jupiter. The distribution of surviving particles at Saturn has strong similarities to that of the known irregular satellites. If saturnian irregular satellites had their origin during the 1:2 resonance crossing, they present an excellent probe into the early Solar System's evolution. We also explore the applicability of this mechanism for Uranus, and find that only some of the uranian irregular satellites have orbits consistent with resonant pericenter lifting. In particular, the more distant and eccentric satellites like Sycorax could be stabilized by this process, while closer-in moons with lower eccentricity orbits like Caliban probably did not evolve by this process alone.     

Permafrost degradation and subsurface-flow changes caused by surface warming trends

Change dynamics of permafrost thaw, and associated changes in subsurface flow and seepage into surface water, are analysed for different warming trends in soil temperature at the ground surface with a three-phase two-component flow system coupled to heat transport. Changes in annual, seasonal and extreme flows are analysed for three warming-temperature trends, representing simplified climate-change scenarios. The results support previous studies of reduced temporal variability of groundwater flow across all investigated trends. Decreased intra-annual flow variability may thus serve as an early indicator of permafrost degradation before longer-term changes in mean flows are notable. This is advantageous since hydrological data are considerably easier to obtain, may be available in longer time series, and generally reflect larger-scale conditions than direct permafrost observations. The results further show that permafrost degradation first leads to increasing water discharge, which then decreases as the permafrost degradation progresses further to total thaw. The most pronounced changes occur for minimum annual flows. The configuration considered represents subsurface discharge from a generic heterogeneous soil-type domain.     

Effect of transport-pathway simplifications on projected releases of radionuclides from a nuclear waste repository (Sweden)

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company has recently submitted an application for a license to construct a final repository for spent nuclear fuel, at approximately 500?m depth in crystalline bedrock. Migration pathways through the geosphere barrier are geometrically complex, with segments in fractured rock, deformation zones, backfilled tunnels, and near-surface soils. Several simplifications of these complex migration pathways were used in the assessments of repository performance that supported the license application. Specifically, in the geosphere transport calculations, radionuclide transport in soils and tunnels was neglected, and deformation zones were assumed to have transport characteristics of fractured rock. The effects of these simplifications on the projected performance of the geosphere barrier system are addressed. Geosphere performance is shown to be sensitive to how transport characteristics of deformation zones are conceptualized and incorporated into the model. Incorporation of advective groundwater travel time within backfilled tunnels reduces radiological dose from non-sorbing radionuclides such as I-129, while sorption in near-surface soils reduces radiological doses from sorbing radionuclides such as Ra-226. These results help quantify the degree to which geosphere performance was pessimistically assessed, and provide some guidance on how future studies to reduce uncertainty in geosphere performance may be focused.     

Modern analogues and the early history of microbial life

Revealing the geological history of microbial life is very challenging. Microbes rarely are preserved with morphological fidelity, and even when they are, morphology is a poor guide to phylogeny and metabolism. Biological studies of environments considered analogous to those of paleobiological interest on the ancient Earth can inform interpretations and suggest new approaches. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of the biological diversity of two environments relevant to Archean paleobiology: those of extreme acidity and temperature (the Mt. Hood and White Island volcanoes), and high salinity (living stromatolites in Shark Bay). The combination of traditional microbial isolation with the use of modern molecular techniques has revealed that the microbial communities in these environments are much more diverse than originally thought. Through the extraction of whole microbial community DNA, enzymatic amplification of evolutionarily conserved genes, and cloning and sequencing of these genes, more specific and informed inferences concerning functional complexity in these extreme environments have now been made. Studies of the modern stromatolites have demonstrated that they have a very diverse range of micoorganisms, and contrary to previous interpretations, cyanobacteria are not the most abundant microbes present. In addition, many of the microorganisms are unique with no known close relatives, and these microorganisms may also possess novel physiologies vital to the integrity and persistence of stromatolites through space and time. Microbes in the volcanoes studied are present ubiquitously and include geochemically significant sulfur- and iron-cycling taxa. The findings from the studies reviewed here suggest that the Archean biota may have been functionally diverse and much more complex than has yet been revealed. The importance of studying modern analogues is stressed in that the biogeochemical processes occurring in these communities leave morphological, mineralogical, lipid and isotopic signals that could be sought in the rock record.     

Robust representation of dry cells in single-layer MODFLOW models

Dewatered or "dry" grid cells in the USGS ground water modeling software MODFLOW may cause nonphysical artifacts, trigger convergence failures, or interfere with parameter estimation. These difficulties can be avoided in two dimensions by modifying the spatial differencing scheme and the iterative procedure used to resolve nonlinearities. Specifically, the spatial differencing scheme is modified to use the water level on the upstream side of a pair of adjacent cells to calculate the saturated thickness and hence intercell conductance for the pair. This makes it possible to explicitly constrain the water level in a cell to be at or above the cell bottom elevation without introducing nonphysical artifacts. Thus constrained, all initially active cells will remain active throughout the simulation. It was necessary to replace MODFLOW's Picard iteration method with the Newton-Raphson method to achieve convergence in demanding applications involving many dry cells. Tests using a MODFLOW variant based on the new method produced results nearly identical to conventional MODFLOW in situations where conventional MODFLOW converges. The new method is extremely robust and converged in scenarios where conventional MODFLOW failed to converge, such as when almost all cells dewatered. An example application to the Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas further demonstrates the utility of the new method.     

Metal extractability in acidic and neutral mine tailings from the Cartagena-La Unión Mining District (SE Spain)

Mine tailings are ubiquitous in the landscapes of mined areas. Metal solubilities were compared in two chemically distinct mine tailings from the old Mining District of Cartagena-La Unión (SE Spain). One of the tailings was acidic (pH 3.0) with 5400 mg/kg Zn, 1900 mg/kg As and 7000 mg/kg Pb. The other was neutral (pH 7.4) with 9100 mg/kg Zn, 5200 mg/kg Pb and 350 mg/kg As. In samples from the acidic tailings, more than 15% of the Zn and 55% of the Cd were extractable with 0.1 M NaNO₃, and distilled water. In the neutral tailings, using the same reagents, less than 1% of the metals were extractable. A sequential extraction procedure revealed that the sum of the residual and the Fe oxide fractions of Cu, Zn and Pb comprised 80–95% in the acidic tailings and 70–90% in the neutral tailings. The acidic mine tailings had a higher metal solubility, resulting in more metal leaching in the short-term, but also a higher fraction of inert metal. In contrast, in the neutral tailings, the metals were evenly distributed between, oxides and the residual fraction. This implies lower metal mobility in the short-term, but that metal mobility may increase in the long-term. When applied to mine tailings, sequential extractions may provide misleading results because the strong cation exchange capacity of some extractants may induce pH changes and thereby significantly change metal solubility.     

Thallium Mass Fraction and Stable Isotope Ratios of Sixteen Geological Reference Materials

Thallium stable isotope ratio and mass fraction measurements were performed on sixteen geological reference materials spanning three orders of magnitude in thallium mass fraction, including both whole rock and partially separated mineral powders. For stable isotope ratio measurements, a minimum of three independent digestions of each reference material was obtained. High‐precision trace element measurements (including Tl) were also performed for the majority of these RMs. The range of Tl mass fractions represented is 10 ng g^?1 to 16 μg g^?1, and Tl stable isotope ratios (reported for historical reasons as ε²⁰⁵Tl relative to NIST SRM 997) span the range ?4 to +2. With the exception – attributed to between‐bottle heterogeneity – of G‐2, the majority of data are in good agreement with published or certified values, where available. The precision of mean of independent measurement results between independent dissolutions suggests that, for the majority of materials analysed, a minimum digested mass of 100 mg is recommended to mitigate the impact of small‐scale powder heterogeneity. Of the sixteen materials analysed, we therefore recommend for use as Tl reference materials the USGS materials BCR‐2, COQ‐1, GSP‐2 and STM‐1; CRPG materials AL‐I, AN‐G, FK‐N, ISH‐G, MDO‐G, Mica‐Fe, Mica‐Mg and UB‐N; NIST SRM 607 and OREAS14P.