The binary decision tree: The growing algorithm and application to thunderstorm forecasting

Summary The paper deals with the probabilistic prediction of event occurrence with use of the binary decision tree which is grown from the learning sample. The tree growing algorithm consists in recursive partition of the predictor space by either single-predictor-based (SP) splits or by hyperplanes perpendicular to the best linear discriminant function (BLDF), and is intended to maximally effectively discriminate the elements of the learning sample with event occurrence from the elements without event occurrence.The predictand is the thunderstorm occurrence in the afternoon in Prague, the set of predictors includes variables derived from a midday single-station TEMP-A data (Perfect Prog approach), persistence predictors and predictors related to passages of the fronts across Prague. The experiments are designed to test the performance of the tree growing algorithm — with a stress upon indeterminateness following from the limited size of the learning sample — and to evaluate the predictive potential of the predictors for thunderstorm forecasting. The stability of the tree structure, the optimal size of the tree and the related prognostic skill score increase with increasing size of the learning sample. Employment of the BLDF splits allows quicker and more effective partition of the predictor space on the assumption that the predictor vector has lower dimension and is well behaved (preferably normally distributed). The stability indices of Faust, Showalter and Adedokun were found to be the most effective predictors. Persistence and frontal predictors only slightly contribute to the total prediction skill of the decision tree. The optimally sized tree has only five splitting nodes and employs three thermodynamical predictors, one frontal and one persistence predictor.     

Magnetic field estimation in microwave radio sources

Eliminating the termN L, useful formulae for the magnetic field estimation in microwave radio sources are presented. Applications of these formulae to observed solar microwave radio bursts are shown.     

The global and local correlation between the Venus gravity field and its topography

The correlation between the undulations of the equipotential and topography surface of Venus have been investigated over 16 meridional sections as well as, in the global scale. The correlation is, in general high. However, the figure parameters of the ellipsoids best fitting the surface in question differ significantly. The global features like figures of the best-fitting ellipsoids are mutually strange.     

Long-term fluctuations of solar activity during the last thousand years

Long-term variations of solar activity during the last thousand years were derived from historical observations (by the naked eye) of large sunspots and from records of auroras at latitudes < 55°. The results shown in Figure 1 indicate very good agreement as regards the occurrence of maxima and minima of all three indices (sunspots, auroras, ¹⁴C), and even between secondary fluctuations of the ¹⁴C-curve, which were usually neglected in the presentation of the smoothed curve.     

Contamination patterns and molluscan and polychaete assemblages in two Persian (Arabian) Gulf oilfields

This study examined two shallow‐water, offshore oil facilities and their surroundings in the Umm Al Dalkh and Zakum oilfields [United Arab Emirates, Persian (Arabian) Gulf]. The focus was on sediment contamination levels and the detection of disturbance based on two representative invertebrate components of the benthos: molluscs and polychaetes. We tested the hypothesis that significant disturbance to the community has occurred, by examining whether distance from the platform or variation in contaminants explains among‐site variation in the composition of benthic communities. Moreover, we also tested the hypothesis that organic enrichment because of oil input has modified the feeding guild structure by examining whether the relative abundances of filter‐feeders, deposit‐feeders and omnivores are correlated with distance from the platform or with contamination by hydrocarbons. The contamination levels and their spatial distribution in the sediments differed significantly between the two fields, as did their mollusc and polychaete communities. The within‐field variability, however, was much lower: no clear structuring of contamination values and species composition and abundance was detectable in relation to distance from the oil platform. Contamination levels were low, often below detection levels or international guideline values. Variation in contaminant concentrations did not explain variation in taxonomic composition and abundance. The relative abundance of the above‐mentioned feeding guilds did not correlate with either distance from the platform or with contaminant concentrations. These patterns may reflect the long time that has elapsed since drilling (15–20 years), which appears to have allowed contaminants to disperse and degrade and assemblages to recover from the impact, if indeed such a disturbance ever occurred. In contrast to low values of barium and total petroleum hydrocarbons, associated with well drilling, some metals were at their highest concentrations beneath the central platforms. This suggests that production‐related activities (including platform cleaning and maintenance) are currently a more relevant contamination source.     

Relation between the Spatial Distribution and Spectral Index of Superthermal Electron Distribution in Solar cm-Radio Sources

A series of solar cm-radio bursts are analyzed by a new inverse method estimating spatial changes of the superthermal electron distribution in solar cm-radio burst sources. It is found that the measure of the spatial change of superthermal electrons in the radio source ν _n is always greater than that for the magnetic field ν _B and it is linearly dependent on the spectral index of the electrons δ as ν _n ≈0.5δ. This relation is explained in the simplified flare-loop model integrating the analytical solutions of the Fokker – Planck equation. The mean value of ν _B is found to be 0.36±0.04, which is very close to the value of ν _B =0.38±0.02 derived from the dependence of the magnetic field strength on the height in the active region measured by RATAN-600.     

The geomagnetic effects on the motion of an electrically charged artificial satellite

The orbital effects of the Lorentz force on the motion of an electrically charged artificial satellite moving in the Earth's magnetic field are determined. The geomagnetic field is considered as a multipole potential field and the satellite electrical charge is supposed to be constant. The relativistic perturbations of the main geomagnetic field are discussed briefly. The results are concentrated on the determination of the secular changes, and numerical values are computed for the case of the LAGEOS satellite. The results are discussed in the context of a possible detection of the Lense-Thirring effect analyzing the orbital perturbations of the LAGEOS and LAGEOS X satellites.     

Depth-Recursive Tomography of the Bohemian Massif at the CEL09 Transect—Part A: Resolution Estimates and Deblurring Aspects

The refraction CEL09 profile from the CELEBRATION 2000 project intersects the main terranes of the Bohemian Massif in the NW–SE direction: the Saxothuringian, the Teplá-Barrandian, the Moldanubian and the Moravo-Silesian. In its easternmost part, it crosses the Western Outer Carpathians overthrust westward onto the Bohemian Massif. Only the first 450 km were surveyed with the densest deployment of shot points providing data suitable for a reliable geological interpretation. The first-arrival depth-recursive tomography was applied here to derive a P-wave velocity image of the upper and middle crust (Part A). The proper interpretation of the obtained velocity features is the subject of the accompanying paper (Part B). The attained resolution in the velocity image is shown to be superior as compared with the previous CEL09 models based also on the more uncertain later arrivals of reflection waves. The applied DRTG (depth-recursive tomography on grid) method is based on a regular network of refraction grid rays generated for iteratively updated starting models. Only the distinct first arrivals with minimum uncertainty are used for the DRTG inversions to yield the maximum resolution. Thanks to the full control of the data fit by the grid rays used, the statistical lateral resolution could be determined at single grid depths for the chosen confidence levels. Thus, the lateral sizes of the anomalies that can be yet resolved are determined in dependence on their depths and their velocity excesses. The defocusing of the imaged features is studied on the basis of the spatial responses to spike excitation. The calculated spatial responses also allowed the edge smearing of the velocity anomalies to be assessed. Special attention is paid to the imaging of low-velocity zones that are usually suppressed by the smoothing measures used in standard tomographic methods. An improvement was achieved if the smoothing was suggested with regard to the occurrence of the low-velocity zones repeatedly appearing in higher iterations. The gained deblurring effect concerns both the negative and positive anomalies as documented on the velocity features interpreted in the accompanying paper.     

The Main Ostrava Whetstone: composition, sedimentary processes, palaeogeography and geochronology of a major Mississippian volcaniclastic unit of the Upper Silesian Basin (Poland and Czech Republic)

The Main Ostrava Whetstone (MOW) is an important lithostratigraphic horizon of the Late Carboniferous sedimentary fill of the late Palaeozoic foreland Upper Silesian Basin. It is the largest and best-identified volcanogenic horizon in the basin, reaching thicknesses of 15.3 m and occupying an area of ca 2,973 km² and a volume after lithification of 9.24 km³. It consists of volcanic materials transported to the basin probably by an aeolian process. Just after sedimentation, these materials were redeposited a short distance away in a shallow water environment. Granularity corresponds to a range from argillaceous siltstones to fine-grained sandstones. The components are dominated by glass shards replaced by clay minerals (mixed illite–smectite structures) in addition to quartz of volcanogenic and terrigenous origins. Sanidine and a plagioclase close to albite are also present. The sedimentary structures, micro-structures and composition of the MOW indicate variable and dynamic hydrodynamic conditions. The MOW represents a series of flooding events, which could be connected with unusual rainfall. Such major flooding events were most likely induced by volcanic eruptions. The available drill-core log data were used to construct a digital model of the whetstone, which showed an east–west zonality in the thicknesses, with the majority being synsedimentary. CA-TIMS U–Pb dating the volcanogenic zircons yields an age of 327.35 ± 0.15 Ma. The source location of the volcanogenic material is not clear; however, it is presumed to have been located in the west of the Upper Silesian Basin.