A late Holocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction from Agua Caliente,southern Belize,linked to regional climate variability and cultural change at the Maya polity of Uxbenká

We report high-resolution macroscopic charcoal, pollen and sedimentological data for Agua Caliente, a freshwater lagoon located in southern Belize, and infer a late Holocene record of human land-use/climate interactions for the nearby prehistoric Maya center of Uxbenká. Land-use activities spanning the initial clearance of forests for agriculture through the drought-linked Maya collapse and continuing into the historic recolonization of the region are all reflected in the record. Human land alteration in association with swidden agriculture is evident early in the record during the Middle Preclassic starting ca. 2600 cal yr BP. Fire slowly tapered off during the Late and Terminal Classic, consistent with the gradual political demise and depopulation of the Uxbenká polity sometime between ca. 1150 and 950 cal yr BP, during a period of multiple droughts evident in a nearby speleothem record. Fire activity was at its lowest during the Maya Postclassic ca. 950–430 cal yr BP, but rose consistent with increasing recolonization of the region between ca. 430 cal yr BP and present. These data suggest that this environmental record provides both a proxy for 2800 years of cultural change, including colonization, growth, decline, and reorganization of regional populations, and an independent confirmation of recent paleoclimate reconstructions from the same region.     

Use of the L2C signal for inversions of GPS radio occultation data in the neutral atmosphere

Results from processing FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultations (RO) with the new GPS L2C signal acquired both in phase locked loop (PLL) and open loop (OL) modes are presented. Analysis of L2P, L2C, and L1CA signals acquired in PLL mode shows that in the presence of strong ionospheric scintillation not only L2P tracking, but also L1CA tracking often fails, while L2C tracking is most stable. The use of L2C improves current RO processing in the neutral atmosphere mainly by increasing the number of processed occultations (due to significant reduction in the number of L2 tracking failures) and marginally by a reduction in noise in statistics. The latter is due to the combination of reduced L2C noise (compared to L2P) and increased L1CA noise in those occultations where L2P would have failed. This result suggests application of OL tracking for L1CA and L2C signals throughout an entire occultation to optimally acquire RO data. Two methods of concurrent processing of L1CA and L2C RO signals are considered. Based on testing of individual occultations, these methods allow: (1) reduction in uncertainty of bending angles retrieved by wave optics in the lower troposphere and (2) reduction in small-scale residual errors of the ionospheric correction in the stratosphere.     

Fiji’s fisheries: their contribution to development and their future

The industrial fisheries of Fiji have had mixed fortunes. The fresh fish export industry has grown rapidly in importance so that fisheries is now the third most valuable export industry; its positive effect on the economy is mainly in the increase in the purchase of goods and services, such as air freight. The present ‘hands off’ policy by government in the fresh fish export industry should continue until the industry matures. In the longer run, ad valorem royalties should be considered as a mean of capturing resource rents. The government-owned export cannery has been in financial decline, and the maintenance of the social benefits of regional employment generated by the cannery has come at a high cost to government coffers. The future of the cannery, now leased to a private operator, is clouded by the uncertainty of the continuity of concessional access to European markets beyond the year 2000. The main task faced by government is the management of fisheries and fish stocks. The management of the inshore fisheries — vital to the needs of a large proportion of the population — needs additional resources. The capability for management of the industrial fisheries, necessary to maximise long term public benefits, would be enhanced by full cost recovery through a user pays policy. This article is based on a paper presented to the Fiji Update seminar, held at the National Centre for Development Studies, the Australian National University, Canberra, on 19 June 1998. The author wishes to thank Mr Krishna Swamy, Senior Fisheries Officer in the Fiji Fisheries Division, and Mr Grahame Southwick, Managing Director of the Fiji Fish Company Ltd, for their generous provision of information for the preparation of this paper; and Mr Joeli Veitayaki, Coordinator of the Ocean Resources Management Programme, University of the South Pacific, for helpful comments. Any errors or omissions are the author’s responsibility, however.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.     

Amplification of vertically propagating SH waves by multiple layers of Gibson soils

Using the Haskell–Thomson transfer matrix approach, an analytical solution is obtained for SH wave amplification by multiple layers of Gibson soils (i.e. viscoelastic layers with linearly varying shear moduli). Amplification spectra for typical soil and basement rock properties are calculated. A comparison of the Gibson soil response with that obtained for homogeneous soil models shows generally stronger amplifications associated with the Gibson soil.     

A determination of the composition of the Saturnian stratosphere using the IUE

We reduced ultraviolet spectra of Saturn from the IUE satellite to produce a geometric albedo of the planet from 1500 to 3000 Å. By matching computer models to the albedo we determined a chemical composition consistent with the data. This model includes C₂H₂ and C₂H₆ with mixing ratios and distributions of (9 ± 3) × 10^?8 in the top 20 mbar of the atmosphere with none below for C₂H₂ and (6 ± 1) × 10^?6 also in the top 20 mbar with none below for C₂H₆. The C₂H₂ and C₂H₆ distributions and the C₂H₆ mixing ratio are taken directly from the Voyager IRIS model [R. Courtin et al., Bull. Amer. Astron. Soc.13, 722 (1981), and private communication]. The Voyager IRIS model also includes PH₃, which is not consistent with the uv albedo from 1800 to 2400 Å. Our model requires a previously unidentified absorber to explain the albedo near 1600 Å. After considering several candidates, we find that the best fit to the data is obtained with H₂O, having a column density of (6 ± 1) × 10^?3 cm-am.     

Neoproterozoic—Early Paleozoic evolution of peri-Gondwanan terranes: implications for Laurentia-Gondwana connections

Neoproterozoic tectonics is dominated by the amalgamation of the supercontinent Rodinia at ca. 1.0 Ga, its breakup at ca. 0.75 Ga, and the collision between East and West Gondwana between 0.6 and 0.5 Ga. The principal stages in this evolution are recorded by terranes along the northern margin of West Gondwana (Amazonia and West Africa), which continuously faced open oceans during the Neoproterozoic. Two types of these so-called peri-Gondwanan terranes were distributed along this margin in the late Neoproterozoic: (1) Avalonian-type terranes (e.g. West Avalonia, East Avalonia, Carolina, Moravia-Silesia, Oaxaquia, Chortis block that originated from ca. 1.3 to 1.0 Ga juvenile crust within the Panthalassa-type ocean surrounding Rodinia and were accreted to the northern Gondwanan margin by 650 Ma, and (2) Cadomian-type terranes (North Armorica, Saxo-Thuringia, Moldanubia, and fringing terranes South Armorica, Ossa Morena and Tepla-Barrandian) formed along the West African margin by recycling ancient (2–3 Ga) West African crust. Subsequently detached from Gondwana, these terranes are now located within the Appalachian, Caledonide and Variscan orogens of North America and western Europe. Inferred relationships between these peri-Gondwanan terranes and the northern Gondwanan margin can be compared with paleomagnetically constrained movements interpreted for the Amazonian and West African cratons for the interval ca. 800–500 Ma. Since Amazonia is paleomagnetically unconstrained during this interval, in most tectonic syntheses its location is inferred from an interpreted connection with Laurentia. Hence, such an analysis has implications for Laurentia-Gondwana connections and for high latitude versus low latitude models for Laurentia in the interval ca. 615–570 Ma. In the high latitude model, Laurentia-Amazonia would have drifted rapidly south during this interval, and subduction along its leading edge would provide a geodynamic explanation for the voluminous magmatism evident in Neoproterozoic terranes, in a manner analogous to the Mesozoic-Cenozoic westward drift of North America and South America and subduction-related magmatism along the eastern margin of the Pacific ocean. On the other hand, if Laurentia-Amazonia remained at low latitudes during this interval, the most likely explanation for late Neoproterozoic peri-Gondwanan magmatism is the re-establishment of subduction zones following terrane accretion at ca. 650 Ma. Available paleomagnetic data for both West and East Avalonia show systematically lower paleolatitudes than predicted by these analyses, implying that more paleomagnetic data are required to document the movement histories of Laurentia, West Gondwana and the peri-Gondwanan terranes, and test the connections between them.     

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation.     

Ground water modeling applications using the analytic element method

Though powerful and easy to use, applications of the analytic element method are not as widespread as finite-difference or finite-element models due in part to their relative youth. Although reviews that focus primarily on the mathematical development of the method have appeared in the literature, a systematic review of applications of the method is not available. An overview of the general types of applications of analytic elements in ground water modeling is provided in this paper. While not fully encompassing, the applications described here cover areas where the method has been historically applied (regional, two-dimensional steady-state models, analyses of ground water-surface water interaction, quick analyses and screening models, wellhead protection studies) as well as more recent applications (grid sensitivity analyses, estimating effective conductivity and dispersion in highly heterogeneous systems). The review of applications also illustrates areas where more method development is needed (three-dimensional and transient simulations).     

Are toxic contaminants accumulating in Massachusetts coastal sediments following startup of the Massachusetts Bay outfall: a comprehensive comparison of baseline and post-diversion periods

The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) conducts monitoring to address concerns related to the 2000 diversion of secondarily treated effluent discharge into Massachusetts Bay. Baseline data (1992-2000) showed multiple regions defined by physical and chemical composition. Near the Massachusetts Bay outfall, there is a series of heterogeneous sediments in relatively close proximity to the primary historic source of contaminants (Boston Harbor). Farfield sediments exhibited greater compositional definition from one another, which was attributed to the greater spatial separation of the sampling locations. Factors that influence contaminant variability include local and distributed sources, and are primarily related to gradients in depositional environments. Post-diversion sediment data suggest that 4 years of treated effluent discharge has not increased contaminant concentrations to the bay system. However, abundance of the sewage tracer, Clostridium perfringens, has increased variably in sediments located within 2 km of the outfall, providing a distinct effluent signal near the outfall.