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321.
Located on a mountain pass in the west-central Pyrenees, the Col d'Ech peat bog provides a Holocene fire and vegetation record based upon nine 14C (AMS) dates. We aim to compare climate-driven versus human-driven fire regimes in terms of frequency, fire episodes distribution, and impact on vegetation. Our results show the mid-Holocene (8500–5500 cal yr BP) to be characterized by high fire frequency linked with drier and warmer conditions. However, fire occurrences appear to have been rather stochastic as underlined by a scattered chronological distribution. Wetter and colder conditions at the mid-to-late Holocene transition (4000–3000 cal yr BP) led to a decrease in fire frequency, probably driven by both climate and a subsequent reduction in human land use. On the contrary, from 3000 cal yr BP, fire frequency seems to be driven by agro-pastoral activities with a very regular distribution of events. During this period fire was used as a prominent agent of landscape management. 相似文献
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323.
Mahdi Taiebat Boris Jeremić Yannis F. Dafalias Amir M. Kaynia Zhao Cheng 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010
To predict the earthquake response of saturated porous media it is essential to correctly simulate the generation, redistribution, and dissipation of excess pore water pressure during and after earthquake shaking. To this end, a reliable numerical tool requires a dynamic, fully coupled formulation for solid–fluid interaction and a versatile constitutive model. Presented in this paper is a 3D finite element framework that has been developed and utilized for this purpose. The framework employs fully coupled dynamic field equations with a u–p–U formulation for simulation of pore fluid and solid skeleton interaction and a SANISAND constitutive model for response of solid skeleton. After a detailed verification and validation of the formulation and implementation of the developed numerical tool, it is employed in the seismic response of saturated porous media. The study includes examination of the mechanism of propagation of the earthquake-induced shear waves and liquefaction phenomenon in uniform and layered profiles of saturated sand deposits. 相似文献
324.
Hermann Held Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe Tobias Pardowitz Joaquim G. Pinto Uwe Ulbrich Kai Born Markus G. Donat Melanie K. Karremann Gregor C. Leckebusch Patrick Ludwig Katrin M. Nissen Hermann Österle Boris F. Prahl Peter C. Werner Daniel J. Befort Olaf Burghoff 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):195-207
We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses. 相似文献
325.
Irina Strelnikova Markus Rapp Boris Strelnikov Gerd Baumgarten Alvin Brattli Knut Svenes Ulf-Peter Hoppe Martin Friedrich Jörg Gumbel Bifford P. Williams 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(3-4):486-496
The first sounding rocket of the European ECOMA-project (ECOMA, Existence and Charge state Of Meteoric smoke particles in the middle Atmosphere) was launched on 8 September 2006. Measurements with a new particle detector described in the companion paper by Rapp and Strelnikova [2008. Measurements of meteor smoke particles during the ECOMA-2006 campaign: 1. Particle detection by active photoionization. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.06.002] clearly showed meteor smoke particle (MSP) signatures in both data channels. The data channels measure particles directly impacting on the detector electrode and photoelectrons from the particles actively created using ionization by the UV-photons of a xenon-flashlamp. Measured photoelectron currents resemble model expectations of the shape of the MSP layer almost perfectly, whereas derived number densities in the altitude range 60–90 km are larger than model results by about a factor of 5. Given the large uncertainties inherent to both model and the analysis of our measurements (e.g., the composition of the particles is not known and must be assumed) we consider this a satisfactory agreement and proof that MSPs do extend throughout the entire mesosphere as predicted by models. The measurements of direct particle impacts revealed a confined layer of negative charge between 80 and 90 km. This limited altitude range, however, is quantitatively shown to be the consequence of the aerodynamics of the rocket flight and does not have any geophysical origin. Measured charge signatures are consistent with expectations of particle charging given our own measurements of the background ionization. Unfortunately, however, a contamination of these measurements from triboelectric charging cannot be excluded at this stage. 相似文献
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327.
2003年7-8月,中方专家野外考察了斯洛文尼亚的8个喀斯特洞穴,采集各类洞穴动物标本500余号,并对主要洞穴环境因子进行了测定,收集相关资料200余篇。2004年2月斯方专家野外考察了中国贵州12个喀斯特洞穴,采集各类动物标本1000余号。本文对两国喀斯特洞穴内的主要动物群进行了比较研究,结果是斯洛文尼亚的物种丰富度比贵州的高: 前者有533种,密度为65. 80种/1000km2; 后者有238种,密度为0. 54种/1000km2。从洞穴蝙蝠看,两国均为24种; 但区系成分不同,斯洛文尼亚全为古北界种, 贵州则主要为东洋界成分( 83% )。此外,文中还对比分析了斯洛文尼亚施科茨杨洞和贵州龙洞内的动物群落组成: 前者以水生种为主体,后者全为陆生种。最后,对斯洛文尼亚无真洞穴鱼的问题及两国的洞穴动物起源进行了探讨。 相似文献
328.
Five genetic facies associations/architectural elements are recognised for the epeiric sea deposits preserved in the Early Proterozoic Timeball Hill Formation, South Africa. Basal carbonaceous mudrocks, interpreted as anoxic suspension deposits, grade up into sheet-like, laminated, graded mudrocks and succeeding sheets of laminated and cross-laminated siltstones and fine-grained sandstones. The latter two architectural elements are compatible with the Te, Td and Tc subdivisions of low-density turbidity current systems. Thin interbeds of stromatolitic carbonate within these first three facies associations support photic water depths up to about 100 m. Laterally extensive sheets of mature, cross-bedded sandstone disconformably overlie the turbidite deposits, and are ascribed to lower tidal flat processes. Interbedded lenticular, immature sandstones and mudrocks comprise the fifth architectural element, and are interpreted as medial to upper tidal flat sediments. Small lenses of coarse siltstone–very fine-grained sandstone, analogous to modern continental rise contourite deposits, occur within the suspension and distal turbidite sediments, and also form local wedges of inferred contourites at the transition from suspension to lowermost turbidite deposits. Blanketing and progressive shallowing of the floor of the Timeball Hill basin by basal suspension deposits greatly reduced wave action, thereby promoting preservation of low-density turbidity current deposits across the basin under stillstand or highstand conditions. A lowstand tidal flat facies tract laid down widespread sandy deposits of the medial Klapperkop Member within the formation. Salinity gradients and contemporaneous cold periglacial water masses were probably responsible for formation of the inferred contourites. The combination of the depositional systems interpreted for the Timeball Hill Formation may provide a provisional model for Early Proterozoic epeiric basin settings. 相似文献
329.
McKenzie's model of sedimentary basin evolution and its modification, widely used in geophysics, sometimes fails to explain discrepancies between predicted and observed values of extension, thinning and subsidence of the Earth's crust, as for the North Sea. We develop a numerical model of sedimentary basin evolution based on the mechanism suggested by Lobkovsky. In the course of rifting, accompanied by thinning of lower parts of the lithosphere, the roof of the underlying asthenosphere moves upward. the material of the mantle lifts and partially melts owing to the reduction of pressure. the density difference between the melt and the crystalline skeleton results in the filtration of the lighter melt and its accumulation in the form of a magmatic lens. Due to changed P-T conditions, the material of the lens undergoes the gabbro-eclogite phase transformation. the resultant anomalously heavy eclogite lens sinks in the surrounding material. This induces a viscous flow, changing the surface topography and forming a sedimentary basin. We construct a 2-D numerical model describing a viscous flow induced by subsidence of a heavy body and compute changes of surface topography. to compute the flow we employ the Galerkin-spline approach, with modifications allowing for density discontinuities and time dependence of the phase transformation. We apply the model to the cases of the Illinois, Michigan and Williston basins. the computed and tectonic subsidence curves agree well for these cases. the proposed model is compatible with the seismic structure of the crust and upper mantle below these basins. the model is also consistent with gravity data. the approach is applicable to other intracratonic basins. 相似文献
330.
The Ideal Resonance Problem, as formulated in 1966 (Paper I), is defined by the Hamiltonian Following the procedure adopted in the construction of a first-orderglobal solution (Papers II, III, and V), we derive a second-order solution from the von Zeipel-Bohlin recursive algorithm of Paper II. The singularities inherent in the Bohlin expansion in powers of μ have been suppressed by means of theregularizing function of Paper III, and the singularities in the coefficients atAB″=0 have been removed by thenormalization technique of Paper V. As a check, it is shown that the global solution includes asymptotically theclassical solution, expanded in powers ofμ 2, and carrying thecritical divisor B′. 相似文献