The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metals discharged during different flow conditions from a mixed agricultural‐forest catchment (NW Spain)

Metal loads were determined from water samples collected under different streamflow conditions (baseflow and storm events) in a rural catchment (NW Spain) during 4 years. A study at annual, seasonal and storm‐event scales was carried out. In all analysed scales, the export order was Fe > Al > Mn > Zn > Cu. A high inter‐annual, seasonal and storm‐event scale variability of metal load was observed. The total metal loads in stream were higher during baseflow conditions than during storm events, which only represented 4% of the duration of the study period and 25% of streamflow. During storm events, both Al and Fe loads accounted 45% of the total load of the study period, whereas Mn, Cu and Zn loads represented 42%, 33% and 24%, respectively. This highlights the role of high flows on metal export. Only four big events exported around 30% of load of each metal transported in events. At all time scales, a prevalence of export of particulate metals over dissolved metals was observed, more pronounced for Al, Fe and Mn than for Cu and Zn. The export of metals in the Corbeira catchment is influenced by runoff and, to a lesser extent, by the rainfall amount. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An optimal determination of variable antenna height and power for in-orbit SAR operations

An optimal power and antenna height determination over a wide range of incidence angles is proposed for in-orbit operations of the spaceborne stripmap synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with variable antenna height and variable radiating element power. The antenna height and the average transmitted radio-frequency power of a radiating element for each incidence angle are determined so that the mapping area can be maximized with the constraints on the signal-to-noise ratio, ambiguities, and swath width, given the SAR geometry (an altitude and incidence angles) and radar wavelength. With the receive-chain power consumption of one transmit/receive module (P/sub r/=10 mW) and the SAR instrument power consumption without the phased array antenna (P/sub I/=5 W), the illustrative design example shows that the mapping area of the proposed SAR for the maximum incidence angle (/spl eta//sup max/=75/spl deg/) is about 269.1% of that resulted from utilizing only the variable antenna height. The proposed optimization would have a more beneficial effect on applications that need the high-incidence-angle operations.     

Understanding river dune splitting through flume experiments and analysis of a dune evolution model

Forecasts of water level during river floods require accurate predictions of the evolution of river dune dimensions, because the hydraulic roughness of the main channel is largely determined by the bed morphology. River dune dimensions are controlled by processes like merging and splitting of dunes. Particularly the process of dune splitting is still poorly understood and – as a result – not yet included in operational dune evolution models. In the current paper, the process of dune splitting is investigated by carrying out laboratory experiments and by means of a sensitivity analysis using a numerical dune evolution model. In the numerical model, we introduced superimposed TRIAS ripples (i.e. triangular asymmetric stoss side‐ripples) on the stoss sides of underlying dunes as soon as these stoss sides exceed a certain critical length. Simulations with the model including dune splitting showed that predictions of equilibrium dune characteristics were significantly improved compared to the model without dune splitting. As dune splitting is implemented in a parameterized way, the computational cost remains low which means that dune evolution can be calculated on the timescale of a flood wave. Subsequently, we used this model to study the mechanism of dune splitting. Literature showed that the initiation of a strong flow separation zone behind a superimposed bedform is one of the main mechanisms behind dune splitting. The flume experiments indicated that besides its height also the lee side slope of the superimposed bedform is an important factor to determine the strength of the flow separation zone and therefore is an important aspect in dune splitting. The sensitivity analysis of the dune evolution model showed that a minimum stoss side length was required to develop a strong flow separation zone. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.     

Soft‐sediment deformation structures in Cretaceous non‐marine deposits of southeastern Gyeongsang Basin,Korea: Occurrences and origin

A variety of soft‐sediment deformation structures formed during or shortly after deposition occurs in the Cretaceous Seongpori and Dadaepo Formations of the southeastern Gyeongsang Basin exposed along coastal areas of southeastern Korean Peninsula for 0.5–2 km. These are mostly present in a fluvial plain facies, with interbedded lacustrine deposits. In this study, the features of different kinds of soft‐sediment deformation structures have been interpreted on the basis of sedimentology of structure‐bearing deposits, comparison with normal sedimentary structures, timing and mechanism of deformation, and triggering mechanisms. The soft‐sediment deformation structures can be classified into four morphological groups: (i) load structures (load casts, ball‐and‐pillow structures); (ii) soft‐sediment intrusive structures (dish‐and‐pillars, clastic dykes, sills); (iii) ductile disturbed structures (convolute folds, slump structures); and (iv) brittle deformation structures (syndepositional faulting, dislocated breccia). The most probable triggering mechanisms resulting in these structures were seismic shocks. These interpretations are based on the following field observations: (i) location of the study area within tectonically active fault zone reactivated several times during the Cretaceous; (ii) deformation structures confined to single stratigraphic levels; (iii) lateral continuity and occurrences of various soft‐sediment deformation structures in the deformed level over large areas; (iv) absence of depositional slope to indicate gravity sliding or slumping; and (v) similarity to the structures produced experimentally. The soft‐sediment deformation structures in the study areas are thus interpreted to have been generated by seismic shocks with an estimated magnitude of M > 5, representing an intermittent record of the active tectonic and sedimentary processes during the development and evolution of two formations from the late Early Cretaceous to the Late Cretaceous.     

Evaluation of Estrogenic Activity and Measurement of EDCs in Wastewater Treatment Plants

1IntroductionDuringthe past several years,concern hasincreasedover the potential pollution of watershed by estrogeniccompounds,including steroidal hormones fromhumanand ani mal sources.Effluents from wastewater treat-ment plants are sources of endocrine-d…     

Deep massive sulphide exploration using 2D and 3D geoelectrical and induced polarization data in Skellefte mining district,northern Sweden

Geoelectrical and induced polarization data from measurements along three profiles and from one 3D survey are acquired and processed in the central Skellefte District, northern Sweden. The data were collected during two field campaigns in 2009 and 2010 in order to delineate the structures related to volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits and to model lithological contacts down to a maximum depth of 1.5 km. The 2009 data were inverted previously, and their joint interpretation with potential field data indicated several anomalous zones. The 2010 data not only provide additional information from greater depths compared with the 2009 data but also cover a larger surface area. Several high‐chargeability low‐resistivity zones, interpreted as possible massive sulphide mineralization and associated hydrothermal alteration, are revealed. The 3D survey data provide a detailed high‐resolution image of the top ～450 m of the upper crust around the Maurliden East, North, and Central deposits. Several anomalies are interpreted as new potential prospects in the Maurliden area, which are mainly concentrated in the central conductive zone. In addition, the contact relationship between the major geological units, e.g., the contact between the Skellefte Group and the Jörn Intrusive Complex, is better understood with the help of 2010 deep‐resistivity/chargeability data. The bottommost part of the Vargfors basin is imaged using the 2010 geoelectrical and induced polarization data down to ～1‐km depth.     

The influence of tectonic subsidence on volcaniclastic sedimentation: The Cretaceous upper Daeri Member,Wido Island,Korea

The Daeri Member, a Cretaceous volcanic–sedimentary succession, can be divided into lower, middle, and upper parts based on vertical changes in its lithologic characters. The lower Daeri Member is composed of siliciclastic deposits formed in a semi‐arid floodplain environment, which is overlain by the middle Daeri Member consisting mainly of andesite lava flow. After the emplacement of the andesite, activities of intrabasinal normal faults created accommodation on hanging wall blocks together with the development of intrabasinal topographic relief. The upper Daeri Member occurs only in hanging wall blocks and is composed of rhyolitic volcaniclastic sediments formed during an explosive volcanic eruption. Following the eruption, owing to semi‐arid climatic conditions and the destruction of vegetation, the eruptive materials were easily remobilized and deposited by episodic sediment gravity flows, resulting in deposition of the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits with sheet‐like geometry. Away from the intrabasinal normal faults, the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits show a decrease in grain size together with changes in inferred depositional processes from debris flows to hyperconcentrated flows and supercritical sheetfloods. This suggests that the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits were stacked on alluvial fan environments induced by intrabasinal topographic relief associated with normal fault activities. In addition, episodic movement of the faults gave rise to periodic fluctuation of the accommodation and an increase in gradient of the alluvial fan surface, resulting in the development of coarsening‐upward trends in the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits. The development of the alluvial fan and the coarsening‐upward trends indicate that dynamic tectonic subsidence and concomitant changes in the intrabasinal physiographic relief influenced the depositional processes and sizes of the transported volcaniclastic sediments of the upper Daeri Member. Thus, it is necessary to carefully observe tectonic signatures in volcaniclastic successions, particularly the syneruptive lithofacies, in order to reconstruct the tectonic and volcanic histories of receiving basins.     

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics of the intertidal seagrass, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera japonica</Emphasis>, on the southern coast of the Korean peninsula

Seagrasses require a large amount of nutrient assimilation to support high levels of production, and thus nutrient limitation for growth often occurs in seagrass habitats. Seagrasses can take up nutrients from both the water column and sediments. However, since seagrasses inhabiting in the intertidal zones are exposed to the air during low tide, the intertidal species may exhibit significantly different carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics compared to the subtidal species. To examine C and N dynamics of the intertidal seagrass, Zostera japonica, C and N content and stable isotope ratios of above- and below-ground tissues were measured monthly at the three intertidal zones in Koje Bay on the southern coast of Korea. The C and N content and stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) ratios of seagrass tissues exhibited significant seasonal variations. Both leaf and rhizome C content were not significantly correlated with productivity. Leaf δ¹³C values usually exhibited negative correlations with leaf productivity. These results of tissue C content and δ¹³C values suggest that photosynthesis of Z. japonica in the study site was not limited by inorganic C supply, and sufficient inorganic C was provided from the atmosphere. The tissue N content usually exhibited negative correlations with leaf productivity except at the upper intertidal zone, suggesting that Z. japonica growth was probably limited by N availability during high growing season. In the upper intertidal zone, no correlations between leaf productivity and tissue elemental content and stable isotope ratios were observed due to the severely suppressed growth caused by strong desiccation stress.