Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods

The catastrophic floods recently occurring in Europe warn of the critical need forhydrologic data on floods over long-time scales. Palaeoflood techniques provideinformation on hydrologic variability and extreme floods over long-time intervals(100 to 10,000 yr) and may be used in combination with historical flood data (last1,000 yr) and the gauge record (last 30–50 yr). In this paper, advantages anduncertainties related to the reconstruction of palaeofloods in different geomorphologicalsettings and historical floods using different documentary sources are described.Systematic and non-systematic data can be combined in the flood frequency analysisusing different methods for the adjustment of distribution functions. Technical toolsintegrating multidisciplinary approaches (geologic, historical, hydraulic and statistical)on extreme flood risk assessment are discussed. A discussion on the potential theoreticalbases for solving the problem of dealing with non-systematic and non-stationary data ispresented. This methodology is being developed using new methodological approachesapplied to European countries as a part of a European Commission funded project (SPHERE).     

Sounding the dark cosmos

Bruce Bassett, Bob Nichol and Daniel J Eisenstein explain why the Wide-Field Multi-Object Spectrograph will need to look so far into the universe, over such a wide area, in order to map sound waves from the dawn of time.     

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.     

Late Holocene environmental change in Celestun Lagoon,Yucatan, Mexico

Journal of Paleolimnology - Epikarst estuary response to hydroclimate change remains poorly understood, despite the well-studied link between climate and karst groundwater aquifers. The influence...     

Aligned olivine in the Springwater pallasite

The mechanism by which olivine grains became embedded within iron‐nickel alloy in pallasite meteorites continues to be a matter of scientific debate. Geochemical and textural observations have failed to fully elucidate the origin and history of the olivine crystals; however, little research attention has been devoted to their crystallographic orientations within the metal matrix. Using electron backscatter diffraction, we have collected crystallographic orientation data for 296 crystals within ～65 cm² sample surface from Springwater. Though no global crystallographic preferred orientation exists, very low misorientations are observed among [100] axes of olivine crystals within specific texturally defined domains. Combined with a thorough characterization of large‐scale Springwater textures, the definitively nonrandom spatial distribution of olivine orientations provides clues regarding the nature of the olivine's initial formation environment as well as the sequence of events subsequent to metal incorporation.     

Cultural political economy: On making the cultural turn without falling into soft economic sociology

This article explores the implications of making the cultural turn in the engagement of economic and political geography with issues of political economy. It seeks to steer a path between a fetishistic, reified economics that naturalizes economic categories and a soft economic sociology that focuses on the similarities between economic and other socio-cultural activities at the expense of the specificity of the economic. We show how combining critical semiotic analysis with an evolutionary and institutional approach to political economy offers one interesting way to achieve this goal. An evolutionary and institutional approach to semiosis enables us to recognize the semiotic dimensions of political economy at the same time as establishing how and why only some economic imaginaries among the many that circulate actually come to be selected and institutionalized; and Marxian political economy enables us to identify the contradictions and conflicts that make capital accumulation inherently improbable and crisis-prone, creating the space for economic imaginaries to play a role in stabilizing accumulation in specific spatio-temporal fixes and/or pointing the way forward from recurrent crises. The paper illustrates these arguments with a case study on the Flemish ‘anchoring strategy’ as a specific regional economic development strategy. It concludes with a set of guidelines for the further development of cultural political economy.     

Aggregate settling velocity of combined sewage overflow

In order to better model the fate and transport of material in a combined sewer overflow (CSO), hydrologic and geochemical measurements were made during a storm event in Flushing Bay, NY, USA. Particle size, total suspended solids concentrations, and CSO solid density are used to calculate the settling velocity of aggregates of the CSO material. Roughly half of the material that is discharged from the outfall sinks rapidly to the bottom, while the other half forms a turbid surface plume in fresher water. The dry solid density of the CSO material was 1589 kg m(-3) and the volume fraction of solid material to total aggregate volume ranged from 0.1 to 1.0. The settling velocity estimates of aggregated material in the surface plume ranged from about 0.5 to 9.0 mm s(-1) with a median settling velocity of 2.9 mm s(-1). A strong inverse relationship between the size of the aggregates and the aggregate density resulted in a fractal dimension of the aggregates of 2.3.     

Fracture characterization using converted waves

We present a method for inversion of fracture compliance matrix components from wide‐azimuth noisy synthetic PS reflection data and quantitatively show that reflection amplitude variations with offset and azimuth for converted PS‐waves are more informative than P‐waves for fracture characterization. We consider monoclinic symmetry for fractured reservoir (parameters chosen from Woodford Shale), which can be formed by two or more sets of vertical fractures embedded in a vertically transverse isotropic background. Components of effective fracture compliance matrices for a medium with monoclinic symmetry are related to the characteristics of the fractured medium. Monte Carlo simulation results show that inversion of PS reflection data is more robust than that of PP reflection data to uncertainties in our a priori knowledge (vertically transverse isotropic parameters of unfractured rock) than PP reflection data. We also show that, while inversion of PP reflections is sensitive to contrasts in elastic properties of upper and lower media, inversion of PS reflections is robust with respect to such contrasts.     

Relativistic charged particle precipitation into Jupiter's sub-auroral atmosphere

Longitudinal variations of energetic charged particle precipitation into the jovian sub-auroral atmosphere are modeled based on weak diffusion scattering and variations in the local loss-cone size associated with asymmetries in the VIP-4 magnetic field model. Our scattering model solutions suggest that low latitude observations of enhanced H₃⁺ and X-ray emissions are at least partially due to precipitating energetic particles. The correlation between model results and observations is best in the northern hemisphere at low L (1.5), where the surface magnetic field variation is largest and observations have the highest resolution. Weaker correlations in the southern hemisphere and at higher latitudes, particularly for H₃⁺ emissions, are likely due to the presence of other energy sources, lack of resolution in the observations and limitations in the sub-auroral surface magnetic field model.