Mixed estimation methods for Halphen distributions with applications in extreme hydrologic events

The Halphen family of distributions is a flexible and complete system to fit sets of observations independent and identically distributed. Recently, it is shown that this family of distributions represents a potential alternative to the generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme hydrological events. The existence of jointly sufficient statistics for parameter estimation leads to optimality of the method of maximum likelihood (ML). Nevertheless, the ML method requires numerical approximations leading to less accurate values. However, estimators by the method of moments (MM) are explicit and their computation is fast. Even though MM method leads to good results, it is not optimal. In order to combine the advantages of the ML (optimality) and MM (efficiency and fast computations), two new mixed methods were proposed in this paper. One of the two methods is direct and the other is iterative, denoted respectively direct mixed method (MMD) and iterative mixed method (MMI). An overall comparison of the four estimation methods (MM, ML, MMD and MMI) was performed using Monte Carlo simulations regarding the three Halphen distributions. Generally, the MMI method can be considered for the three Halphen distributions since it is recommended for a majority of cases encountered in hydrology. The principal idea of the mixed methods MMD and MMI could be generalized for other distributions with complicated density functions.     

Implications for place attachment in coastal Reserve management

This study determined the characteristics of North Carolina Coastal Reserve and North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve (jointly referred to as Reserve) visitors, visitor opinions of site conditions, visitor understanding of site management objectives, and patterns of visitation. The latter were investigated to obtain a proxy of place attachment and its effects on knowledge of ownership and perceptions of management. Data were collected on demographics, use patterns, visitor perceptions, and visitor knowledge during the period of 25 May-28 October, 2007. Visitors were educated, wealthy, older, racially homogeneous, and frequent returnees. The majority of respondents supported existing management activities and the implementation of additional use restrictions should site conditions deteriorate. Data indicated that respondents were unaware of which agency manages the Reserve sites or its mission. These findings suggest that management needs to engage in more education of the visiting public. Sensitizing the public to the mission of the Reserve and increasing place attachment could decrease negative visitor impacts.     

Ulysses observations of anti-sunward flow on Jovian polar cap field lines

We examine the energetic (MeV) ion data obtained by the Anisotropy Telescopes instrument of the Ulysses COSPIN package during two northern high-latitude excursions prior to closest approach to Jupiter, when the spacecraft left the region of trapped fluxes on closed magnetic field lines at lower latitudes and entered a region of open field lines which we term the polar cap. During these intervals the ion fluxes dropped by 4–5 orders of magnitude to low but very steady values, and the ion spectrum was consistent with the observation of an essentially unprocessed interplanetary population. Ion anisotropies observed at these distances (within 16R_J, of Jupiter) indicate that in the low-latitude, high-flux regions the flows are principally azimuthail and in the sense of corotation, with speeds which are within a factor of 2 (in either direction) of rigid corotation. In the higher latitude trapped flux regions the flows rotate to become northward as the polar cap is approached, while in the polar cap itself the flows rotate further to become anti-corotational (and anti-sunward in the morning sector) and northward. These results provide primary evidence of the existence of solar wind-driven flows in the outer Jovian magnetosphere mapping to the high-latitude ionosphere. Investigation of concurrent magnetic data for the signatures of related field-aligned currents reveals only weak signatures with an amplitude of order 1 nT. The implication is that the height-integrated Pedersen conductivity of the ionosphere to which the spacecraft was connected was low, of order 0.01 mho or less. We also examine the ion observations during the two northern high-latitude excursions previous to those discussed above. These data indicate that the spacecraft approached but did not penetrate the open flux region during these intervals.     

Political ecology and the epistemology of social justice

Piers Blaikie’s writings on political ecology in the 1980s represented a turning point in the generation of environmental knowledge for social justice. His writings since the 1980s demonstrated a further transition in the identification of social justice by replacing a Marxist and eco-catastrophist epistemology with approaches influenced by critical realism, post-structuralism and participatory development. Together, these works demonstrated an important engagement with the politics of how environmental explanations are made, and the mutual dependency of social values and environmental knowledge. Yet, today, the lessons of Blaikie’s work are often missed by analysts who ask what is essentially political or ecological about political ecology, or by those who argue that a critical approach to environmental knowledge should mean deconstruction alone. This paper reviews Blaikie’s work since the 1980s and focuses especially on the meaning of ‘politics’ within his approach to political ecology. The paper argues that Blaikie’s key contribution is not just in linking environmental knowledge and politics, but also in showing ways that environmental analysis and policy can be reframed towards addressing the problems of socially vulnerable people. This pragmatic co-production of environmental knowledge and social values offers a more constructive means of building socially just environmental policy than insisting politics or ecology exist independently of each other, or believing environmental interventions are futile in a post-Latourian world.     

Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rural women and technology in South Africa: Case studies from KwaZulu-Natal Province

This article contributes to a greater understanding of the linkages between women's roles, responsibilities and their use of technology in poor rural communities. The ways in which poor rural women conceptualize technology is examined. Furthermore, how they use their knowledge and skills to develop, modify and adapt the techniques and technical processes in which they are involved are also explored. Additionally, the links between indigenous and modern technologies in relation to gender considerations in poor rural contexts are examined. This article draws from findings of primary research undertaken in two marginalized rural communities in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. The study reveals that the use of technologies are highly gendered and differentiated among women. Poor rural women utilize a range of technologies in both productive and reproductive activities which are central to their livelihood strategies, especially at the household level. Furthermore, although women are adapting and innovating technologies their expertise remains largely unrecognized. A range of problems and constraints exist which limit women's access to and use of technologies. A key tension identified in the study is that between the use of locally-based, indigenous technologies and modern, external technologies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Structural fabric of the Central Metasedimentary Belt of southern Ontario, Canada, from deep seismic profiling

The Central Metasedimentary Belt boundary tectonic zone (CMBbtz) is a 10–20-km-wide zone of intense structural deformation within the 1.3–1.0 Ga Grenville orogen of southeastern Canada. The crustal structure of the exposed CMBbtz has been well studied, but its sub-Phanerozoic location and geometry beneath the urban development and nuclear stations of the Toronto region are not well known. A new 75-km Lithoprobe reflection profile acquired close to Toronto provides a clear image of the CMBbtz as a panel of southeast-dipping reflections that extends with moderate dip (<25°) to mid-crustal depth (25 km). These dipping reflections truncate and (or) overprint a subhorizontal band of reflectivity at 21 km depth. The seismic line is oblique to the major structural trends; cross-dip analysis shows that the southeast-dipping reflections have a strike and dip of N13°E and 25°, whereas the “subhorizontal” reflections strike and dip at N65°E and 20°, respectively. Both of these bands of reflectivity can be correlated to magnetic anomalies in the CMBbtz or its immediate footwall. Magnetic anomalies with similar strike directions are well expressed within a distinct rhomboid-shaped region (106×109 km) in the subsurface of western Lake Ontario, herein named Mississauga domain. Taken together, the seismic and magnetic data are inconsistent with existing models, in which the CMBbtz is extrapolated beneath Lake Ontario along a linear magnetic anomaly. We propose a revised subsurface trace of the CMBbtz along the western edge of the Mississauga domain. Small earthquakes in western Lake Ontario appear to cluster along trends co-linear with ENE magnetic anomalies, suggesting a possible degree of basement tectonic control on local intraplate seismicity.