Modelling the Northern Hemisphere temperature for solar cycles 24 and 25

It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO₂ as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C.     

Hydrological implications of land use and land cover change: Spatial analytical approach at regional scale in the closed basin of the Cuitzeo Lake,Michoacan, Mexico

A spatially distributed water balance model was used to assess the influence of regional land use and land cover change in a poorly gauged basin for the years 1975 and 2000. To carry out this study in the Cuitzeo Lake basin in Michoacan, Mexico, remote sensing and geographic information system tools were integrated in the water balance model. In addition, a transition matrix analysis was used to determine the dynamic change of categories of related hydrologic processes. The analysis of the water balance components, based on landforms and transition matrix, indicated a tendency of improvement in the regional hydrologic conditions in the basin. As a consequence of urban land use growth, however, plains and footslopes of the basin showed an increase of runoff values. In addition, in both years, the topographic lower sections of the basin exhibited a high demand for water from the increased urban land use, along with degradation of Cuitzeo Lake, particularly by pollution and reduction of water supply. The approach used here is suitable for understanding the change in quantity and spatial distribution of water available in poorly gauged basins.     

Hydrodynamics of a headland-bay beach—Nearshore current circulation

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the hydrodynamic equilibrium of a headland or semi-elliptic shaped beach. It is shown that the state of equilibrium depends not only on the in- and outgoing sediment but also on the accommodation of the sediment within the embayment. The shape and relative depth of shoals, or settling zones, also directly affect the wave and current patterns inside the bay, within which the resultant breaker line almost stops wave-induced currents at some locations, whereas the magnitude of current increases at other locations. Several numerical tests are analytically conducted in a semi-elliptic beach with two symmetrical shoals of varying relative depth where circulatory current systems are detected and analyzed. Numerical modelling for wave climate and wave-induced current estimation is also presented in order to corroborate results and provide a tool for complicated and/or physical domains. The results lead to a redefinition of the concept of equilibrium for headland-bay beaches taking into account not only the net sediment transport but also the role of the formation and disappearance of settling zones, as well as sediment interchanges between the beach and shoals.     

How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts?

End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Role of Large-Scale Solar Photospheric Motions in the Cosmic-Ray 1.68-YR Intensity Variation

Analysis of cosmic-ray intensity time evolution has led to the identification of intensity variations with several periodicities, most of them correlated with one or another phenomenon of the Sun. Recently Valdés-Galicia, Pérez-Enriquez, and Otaola (1996) reported on a newly-found 1.68-yr variation, which seems to be correlated with periodicities in X-ray long-duration events and low-latitude coronal hole area variations. As those phenomena are related with magnetic flux emergence and transport, in this paper we investigate the possible relationship of the referred cosmic-ray variation with characteristic times of different tracers of meridional circulation. Our results indicate that several of the calculated times might be related to the 1.68-yr cosmic-ray variation. A physical mechanism through which this connection may operate is discussed.     

Variability and fluxes of nitrogen and organic carbon at the mouth of a coastal lagoon

This work examines the tidal exchanges of heat, inorganic nitrogenous nutrients and various forms of organic matter at the mouth of San Quintin Bay, Baja California, Mexico. It also attempts to elucidate the main factors responsible for the short-term fluctuations of these seawater properties. To accomplish this, a time series sampling was carried out at the mouth of the bay from 25 June to 5 July, 1979. The bay systematically exported heat, with an average of 1·2×10¹⁰ kcal per half tidal cycle during the sampling period. Inputs of nitrite and nitrate during upwelling were of major importance to the productivity of the lagoon. During non-upwelling conditions the trend was toward a dynamic equilibrium in the oxidized inorganic nutrient fluxes. There were significant exports of ammonia. These ammonia exports were, on average, about 20% of the nitrate plus nitrite imports. Ammonia concentrations were related to metabolic and mixing processes. Ammonia might be an important export product throughout the year, as a result of the reduced state of the sediments. During the sampling, there were imports of particulate organic carbon and nitrogen. The C/N ratio suggests that the main origin of organic detritus was other than the breakdown of eelgrass in the bay. There were mostly imports of diatom carbon, but fluxes of dinoflagellate carbon were always near equilibrium. Zooplankton showed both exports and imports. Variability in the zooplankton carbon was mostly related to diel vertical migration. There were no significant exports of floating seagrass, not even during spring tides.     

Surficial Hydrocarbon Seep Infauna from the Blake Ridge (Atlantic Ocean, 2150 m) and the Gulf of Mexico (690–2240 m)

Abstract.  Infauna, including foraminifera and metazoans, were enumerated and identified from five types of seep habitats and two adjacent non-seep habitats. Collections were made with the deep submergence research vessel 'Alvin' from three areas of active seepage in the Gulf of Mexico (Alaminos Canyon [2220 m], Atwater Canyon [1930 m], and Green Canyon lease block 272 [700 m]) and on the Blake Ridge Diapir [2250 m], which is located off the southeastern coast of the United States. The seep habitats sampled included four types of microbial mats ( Beggiatoa , Thioploca , thin and thick Arcobacter ) and the periphery of a large mussel bed. Sediments under large rhizopod protists, xenophyophores, were sampled adjacent to the mussel bed periphery. A non-seep site, which was >1 km away from active seeps, was also sampled for comparison. Densities of most taxa were higher in the Gulf of Mexico seeps than in Blake Ridge samples, largely because densities in the thick microbial mats of Blake Ridge were significantly lower. Diversity was higher in the Thioploca mats compared to other microbial-mat types. Within an ocean basin ( i.e. , Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico) we did not observe significant differences in meiofaunal or macrofaunal composition in Beggiatoa versus Thioploca mats or thin versus thick Arcobacter mats. Foraminifera represented up to 16% of the seep community, a proportion that is comparable to their contribution at adjacent non-seep communities. In general, the observed densities and taxonomic composition of seep sites at the genus level was consistent with previous observations from seeps ( e.g. , the foraminifers Bolivina and Fursenkoina , the dorvilleid polychaete Ophryotrocha ).     

Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165–193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.     

Metal mobilization from base-metal smelting slag dumps in Sierra Almagrera (Almería,Spain)

Smelting slags associated with base-metal vein deposits of the Sierra Almagrera area (SE Spain) show high concentrations of Ag (<5–180 ppm), As (12–750 ppm), Cu (45–183 ppm), Fe (3.2–29.8%), Pb (511–2150 ppm), Sb (22–620 ppm) and Zn (639–8600 ppm). The slags are mainly composed of quartz, fayalite, barite, melilite, celsian, pyrrhotite, magnetite, galena and Zn–Pb–Fe alloys. No glassy phases were detected. The following weathering-related secondary phases were found: jarosite–natrojarosite, cotunnite, cerussite, goethite, ferrihydrite, chalcanthite, copiapite, goslarite, halotrichite and szomolnokite. The weathering of slag dumps near the Mediterranean shoreline has contaminated the soils and groundwater, which has caused concentrations in groundwater to increase to 0.64 mg/L Cu, 40 mg/L Fe, 0.6 mg/L Mn, 7.6 mg/L Zn, 5.1 mg/L Pb and 19 μg/L As. The results of laboratory leach tests showed major solubilization of Al (0.89–12.6 mg/L), Cu (>2.0 mg/L), Fe (0.22–9.8 mg/L), Mn (0.85–40.2 mg/L), Ni (0.092–2.7 mg/L), Pb (>2.0 mg/L) and Zn (>2.5 mg/L), and mobilization of Ag (0.2–31 μg/L), As (5.2–31 μg/L), Cd (1.3–36.8 μg/L) and Hg (0.2–7 μg/L). The leachates were modeled using the numerical code PHREEQC. The results suggested the dissolution of fayalite, ferrihydrite, jarosite, pyrrhotite, goethite, anglesite, goslarite, chalcanthite and cotunnite. The presence of secondary phases in the slag dumps and contaminated soils may indicate the mobilization of metals and metalloids, and help to explain the sources of groundwater contamination.     

基于相互作用关系的中国省际人口流动研究

基于2000年、2010年人口普查及2005年、2015年人口抽样调查数据,采用相互作用关系模型计算了中国“人口流动系统”和“单向相互作用关系值”。结果表明：① 人口流动具有明显的凝聚性,东部地区对流动人口的吸引力依然具有绝对优势;② 省际人口流动呈“非对称双向迁移模式”,人口回流的趋势已不容忽视;③ 长三角地区逐渐代替珠三角成为新的人口流动中心,人口流动开始北移;④ 中西部地区的人口流动分中心某种意义上已经出现,人口就近转移日渐凸显。将2010-2015年间省际人口流动新规律和特征与1995-2010年进行动态对比,对于制定未来人口和区域发展政策,继续缩小东西部地区之间的差距,最终实现区域协调发展具有重要意义。