Cme Phenomenology in Different Solar Magnetic Scenarios

The existence of three magnetic scenarios with magnetic field intensities one order apart was considered. CMEs were associated to different solar activity phenomena and solar features showing different characteristics. Those associated to intense magnetic fields were more complex, having either more components or multiple emissions and a greater magnetic energy to particle acceleration conversion rate. On the other hand, simple CMEs were found to associate to weak magnetic fields. No evidence was found that the process that leads to CME starts before their detection at 1.6 solar radii. This indicates that the whole volume moves upward simultaneously, no matter how deep it reaches into the solar atmosphere.     

Radial basis functions with compact support for multivariate geostatistics

Matrix-valued radially symmetric covariance functions (also called radial basis functions in the numerical analysis literature) are crucial for the analysis, inference and prediction of Gaussian vector-valued random fields. This paper provides different methodologies for the construction of matrix-valued mappings that are positive definite and compactly supported over the sphere of a d-dimensional space, of a given radius. In particular, we offer a representation based on scaled mixtures of Askey functions; we also suggest a method of construction based on B-splines. Finally, we show that the very appealing convolution arguments are indeed effective when working in one dimension, prohibitive in two and feasible, but substantially useless, when working in three dimensions. We exhibit the statistical performance of the proposed models through simulation study and then discuss the computational gains that come from our constructions when the parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood. We finally apply our constructions to a North American Pacific Northwest temperatures dataset.     

Field accumulative behavior of organochlorine pesticides. The role of crabs and sediment characteristics in coastal environments

The influence of intertidal crab beds on the concentrations of organochlorine (OC) pesticides in sediment was studied in two different coastal environments in Argentina. Samples of male burrowing crabs (Chasmagnathus granulatus) were collected for this study. Our field data showed lower bioaccumulation of OC pesticides in crabs from sediments with a higher total organic carbon (TOC) and higher clay content. Thus, concentrations in crabs depend on the physico-chemical characteristics of the sediment where they live more than on the OC pesticide concentrations in the environment. The distribution patterns in sediment from inside and outside crab burrows were similar for both coastal areas being HCHs  γ-chlordane > p,p′-DDE for San Antonio Bay (SAO), and HCHs > p,p′-DDE  γ-chlordane for Mar Chiquita (MCh) coastal lagoon. OC pesticide concentrations in sediment were significantly lower inside than outside crab burrows, irrespective of the sediment physico-chemical characteristics due to the bioturbation activity of C. granulatus.     

Deriving snow‐cover depletion curves for different spatial scales from remote sensing and snow telemetry data

During the melting of a snowpack, snow water equivalent (SWE) can be correlated to snow‐covered area (SCA) once snow‐free areas appear, which is when SCA begins to decrease below 100%. This amount of SWE is called the threshold SWE. Daily SWE data from snow telemetry stations were related to SCA derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer images to produce snow‐cover depletion curves. The snow depletion curves were created for an 80 000 km² domain across southern Wyoming and northern Colorado encompassing 54 snow telemetry stations. Eight yearly snow depletion curves were compared, and it is shown that the slope of each is a function of the amount of snow received. Snow‐cover depletion curves were also derived for all the individual stations, for which the threshold SWE could be estimated from peak SWE and the topography around each station. A station's peak SWE was much more important than the main topographic variables that included location, elevation, slope, and modelled clear sky solar radiation. The threshold SWE mostly illustrated inter‐annual consistency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solar influence and hydrological variability during the Holocene from a speleothem annual record (Molinos Cave,NE Spain)

We present a multi‐proxy approach to reconstructing Holocene climate conditions in northeastern Spain based on an excellent correlation among the lamina thickness, colour parameters and isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) variations recorded in a speleothem. An age model constructed from five U/Th dates and annual lamina counting suggests that the uppermost 14.7 cm of the MO‐7 stalagmite grew between 7.2 and 2.5 ka before present but experienced a growth hiatus from 4.9 to 4.3 ka. Three spectral analysis methods were applied to 11 time series. The results reveal common solar periodicities on decennial (Gleissberg cycle) and centennial (De Vries‐Suess cycle) scales. The onset of Holocene carbonate precipitation in the MO‐7 stalagmite appears to be associated with a cold, wet period, whereas the hiatus and the end of growth are related to warm, dry periods. This environmental trend fits well within the regional Holocene climate.     

Possible patterns in the distribution of planetary formation regions

Eris, an object larger than Pluto, is known to reside in the transneptunian region further away than Pluto. One can wonder whether its semimajor orbital axis fits in a generalized Titius–Bode law, in the same way as Pluto does. We performed a new least-squares fit to a generalized Titius–Bode law including Eris and found that not only does Eris fit in the trend, but also the correlation coefficient improves. In addition, there is a remarkable symmetry of the location of the planetary formation regions with respect to Jupiter when the natural logarithm of the heliocentric distance is used as the metric. The issue of whether the observed patterns have some physical meaning or are due to mere chance is addressed using a Monte Carlo approach identical to that of Lynch. Although the probability of chance occurrence is highly dependent on the way in which the random configurations of synthetic planetary systems are selected, we find that in all reasonable scenarios of random planetary systems the probability of chance occurrence of the observed patterns is small (below 1 per cent in most cases). If the trend were used as a prediction tool, one might expect another planet or dwarf planet or a swarm of bodies with semimajor orbital axis of 120 ± 20 au. Simple calculations show that the protoplanetary nebula most likely had enough mass to allow the accretion of at least a dwarf planet at that distance. We also found that if the surface density of the nebula decayed with heliocentric distance ( r ) as a power of −2, the regular spacing in ln  r in the Solar system could be a natural consequence of the existence of a threshold mass for planetary formation.     

California coastal management with a changing climate

With over 2,000 miles (3,218 km) of ocean and estuarine coastline, California faces significant coastal management challenges as a result of climate change-induced sea level rise. Under high emission scenarios, recent models predict 1.4 m or more of sea level rise by 2100, accompanied by increasing storm surges. This article investigates the most important issues facing coastal managers, explores the policy tools available for adapting to the impacts of climate change, assesses institutional constraints to adaptation, and identifies priorities for future research and policy action. We find that adaptation tools exist for dealing with anticipated increases in coastal erosion and flooding, but they involve significant costs and tradeoffs. In particular, coastal armoring, such as seawalls, can protect developed coastal lands, but destroys beaches and habitat. Although California already has policies and institutions that aim to balance the competing objectives for coastal development, management agencies are at the early stages of understanding how to facilitate adaptation. Research priorities to inform coastal adaptation planning include: (i) inventorying coastal resources to provide a firmer basis for balancing decisions on property and habitat protection, (ii) identifying opportunities for coastal habitat migration, (iii) assessing the vulnerabilities of existing and planned coastal infrastructure, and (iv) experimenting with alternatives to armoring as a way of managing the changing coastline.     

Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.