Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO₂ concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.     

Multi-directional wave spectra from marine X-band radar

The signal measured by heave–pitch–roll directional wave buoys yields the first four coefficients of a Fourier series. Data adaptive methods must be employed to estimate a directional wave spectrum. Marine X-band radars (MRs) have the advantage over buoys that they can measure “model-free” two-dimensional (2D) wave spectra. This study presents the first comprehensive validation of MR-derived multi-directional wave characteristics. It is based on wave data from the 2010 Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) experiment in the Philippine Sea, namely MR measurements from R/V Roger Revelle, Extreme Air–Sea Interaction (EASI) buoy measurements, as well as WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) modeling results. Buoy measurements of mean direction and spreading as function of frequency, which do not require data adaptive methods, are used to validate the WW3 wave spectra. An advanced MR wave retrieval technique is introduced that addresses various shortcomings of existing methods. Spectral partitioning techniques, applied to MR and WW3 results, reveal that multimodal seas are frequently present. Both data sets are in excellent agreement, tracking the evolution of up to 4 simultaneous wave systems over extended time periods. This study demonstrates MR’s and WW3’s strength at measuring and predicting 2D wave spectra in swell-dominated seas.     

Using subsurface metazoan fauna to indicate groundwater–surface water interactions in the Nakdong River floodplain, South Korea

Hydrological interactions between surface water and groundwater (GW) can be described using hydrochemical and biological methods. Surface water–groundwater interactions and their effects on groundwater invertebrate communities were studied in the Nakdong River floodplain in South Korea. Furthermore, the GW-Fauna-Index, a promising new index for assessing the strength of surface-water influence on groundwater, was tested. The influence of surface water on groundwater decreased with increasing depth and distance from the river. While hydrochemistry prevailingly reflected the origin of the waters in the study area (i.e. whether alluvial or from adjacent rock), faunal communities seemed to display an affinity to surface-water intrusion. Fauna reacted quickly to changes in hydrology, and temporal changes in faunal community structure were significantly linked to the hydrological situation in the floodplain. The metazoan faunal community and the GW-Fauna-Index allow a distinction between surface and subsurface waters with varying degrees of exchange. The results indicate that hydrological conditions are reflected by faunal assemblages on a high spatiotemporal resolution, and that surface-water intrusion can be estimated using the GW-Fauna-Index.     

Identifying low-temperature hydrothermal karst and palaeowaters using stable isotopes: a case study from an alpine cave,Entrische Kirche,Austria

The area south of the prominent east–west trending Salzach Valley at the northern rim of the Central Alps of Austria has long been known to host anomalously warm springs emerging from a highly deformed calcite marble (Klammkalk). This unit also hosts cavities whose shapes suggest a hydrothermal karst origin and which are lined by calcite spar. We report here petrographic and isotopic evidence suggesting that dissolution by ascending low-temperature thermal waters also played an important role in the origin of a large cave in this region, Entrische Kirche. A paleo cave wall, preserved behind a thick flowstone in the interior of this cave, revealed a brownish bleaching zone which contrasts to the medium grey colour of the unaltered marble beneath. Across this zone the C and O isotope values gradually decrease by 3 and 11‰, respectively. These compositions are very different from those of the speleothem above but are similar to phreatic calcite spar from hydrothermal karst cavities in other outcrops in the area, where the absence of two-phase fluid inclusions suggests a low-temperature (less than ca. 50°C) hydrothermal origin. U/Th dating of the flowstone capping the alteration zone yielded a minimum age of the thermal water invasion in Entrische Kirche of ca. 240 kyr. There is no evidence in Entrische Kirche that these palaeowaters reached the point of calcite precipitation, but it is physically conceivable that higher and as yet unexplored parts of this deep (ca. 900 m) cave contain cavities lined by phreatic cave spar.     

Mesoproterozoic (1.47–1.44 Ga) orogenic magmatism in Fennoscandia; Baddeleyite U–Pb dating of a suite of massif-type anorthosite in S. Sweden

The Jönköping Anorthositic Suite (JAS) in S. Sweden has characteristics typical for (Proterozoic) massif-type anorthosites. The interstitial liquid of these plagioclase-porphyritic rocks solidified at 1,455 ± 6 Ma, as determined by U–Pb isotope analysis of baddeleyite. The JAS developed during a regional 1.47–1.44 event in Fennoscandia that generated widespread mafic magmatism (basalts, and diabase dykes and sills) in the north and emplacement of felsic plutons in the south. The event of 1.47–1.44 Ga magmatism in Fennoscandia largely coincides in age with dynamic high-grade metamorphism in SW Sweden and was probably related to convergent active-margin processes during the Danopolonian orogeny.     

Using ocean quahog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Arctica islandica</Emphasis>) shells to reconstruct palaeoenvironment in Öresund,Kattegat and Skagerrak,Sweden

Shells of Arctica islandica collected between 1884 and 2004 from Öresund, Kattegat and Skagerrak (Swedish West Coast) were used to monitor local climate variations and the influence of human activities on the local environment. For this purpose, we analysed the growth, structure and chemical composition of these shells and compared them with shells collected from Kiel Bay, Norway and Iceland. The growth rate of the studied shells registers an NAO periodicity of ca 8 years. However, the observed signal is weak because of other environmental interferences that are either of natural or anthropogenic origin. For example, the oxygen isotope ratios show temperature fluctuation, but also the influx of low salinity water. Higher contents of S, N, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and P in shell portions formed during the last century are related to human activities such as mining and industrial development. Our study indicates that in order to use Arctica shells as archives of climate change it is necessary to study the full range of environmental data that is recorded in the shells by using a multi element and isotope approach in combination with different analytical techniques including investigation of growth rates and shell structure.