Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba,South Sudan

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I?=?3.05, I-stat?=?9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model (p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.     

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country’s second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate’s exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.     

Overview of groundwater sources and water-supply systems,and associated microbial pollution,in Finland,Norway and Iceland

The characteristics of groundwater systems and groundwater contamination in Finland, Norway and Iceland are presented, as they relate to outbreaks of disease. Disparities among the Nordic countries in the approach to providing safe drinking water from groundwater are discussed, and recommendations are given for the future. Groundwater recharge is typically high in autumn or winter months or after snowmelt in the coldest regions. Most inland aquifers are unconfined and therefore vulnerable to pollution, but they are often without much anthropogenic influence and the water quality is good. In coastal zones, previously emplaced marine sediments may confine and protect aquifers to some extent. However, the water quality in these aquifers is highly variable, as the coastal regions are also most influenced by agriculture, sea-water intrusion and urban settlements resulting in challenging conditions for water abstraction and supply. Groundwater is typically extracted from Quaternary deposits for small and medium municipalities, from bedrock for single households, and from surface water for the largest cities, except for Iceland, which relies almost entirely on groundwater for public supply. Managed aquifer recharge, with or without prior water treatment, is widely used in Finland to extend present groundwater resources. Especially at small utilities, groundwater is often supplied without treatment. Despite generally good water quality, microbial contamination has occurred, principally by norovirus and Campylobacter, with larger outbreaks resulting from sewage contamination, cross-connections into drinking water supplies, heavy rainfall events, and ingress of polluted surface water to groundwater.     

The temporal variation of Mesoarchaean volcanism in the Suomussalmi greenstone belt,Karelia Province,Eastern Finland

International Journal of Earth Sciences - This study concentrates in the Kiannanniemi area, situated in the Archaean Suomussalmi greenstone belt, the Karelia Province, Fennoscandian Shield. A...     

Kinematics and significance of a poly-deformed crustal-scale shear zone in central to south-eastern Madagascar: the Itremo–Ikalamavony thrust

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Across the crystalline basement of Madagascar, late Archaean rocks of the Antananarivo Block are tectonically overlain by Proterozoic, predominantly...     

Hydrogeochemical evaluation of Umut geothermal field (SW Turkey)

Tekkehamam geothermal field is located in the South of Menderes Graben (Aegean region) and is one of the most important geothermal sites of Western Anatolia. Umut geothermal field is a part of the Tekkehamam field. This study was conducted in order to determine the origin and hydrogeochemical properties of the geothermal waters. For this purpose, sampling was done in order to check the chemistry of the water, and ¹⁸O, ²H isotope analyses done at four wells, nine natural springs and three cold water sources. According to the results of the chemical analysis, the geothermal waters were determined to be of Na + K-SO₄ type. Additionally, ¹⁴C and ³H analyses were done in selected well and spring waters for the purpose of age determination of groundwater; most of the waters were determined to be submodern. Geothermometer calculations show that the reservoir temperature for the Umut geothermal field ranges between 148 and 180 °C. Stable isotope results indicate that Umut geothermal waters are meteoric in origin. Mixing between shallow and deep waters is the dominant subsurface process that determines the physical and chemical character of the waters.     

Probabilistic assessment of soil liquefaction considering spatial variability of CPT measurements

The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material.     

Investigation of the Kumdanlı and surrounding faults on the Eğirdir Lake by conducting ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles

A ground penetrating radar (GPR) survey was performed on the E?irdir Lake to obtain the structural properties of Kumdanl? and surrounding faults. GPR data was collected along ten profiles in various directions by using 100–200-MHz GPR antennas. The radar sections showed that the Kumdanl? Fault, SW-NE in direction, and also some other neighboring NW-SE normal faults have played an active role in forming the E?irdir-Hoyran Lakes. The deformation and the geometry obtained from the results show that the Kumdanl? Fault is a sinistral strike-slip fault including oblique and segmented displacements. The other faults (Kemerdam? and Akkeçili) have mainly normal fault systems. Their trends are generally NW-SE in direction. It is also observed that they are younger than the Kumdanl? Fault system. These fault properties demonstrate the E?irdir Lake side has an extensional structure trending SW-NE.     

Multi‐method virtual electromagnetic experiments for developing suitable monitoring designs: A fictitious CO2 sequestration scenario in Northern Germany

We present a numerical study for 3D time‐lapse electromagnetic monitoring of a fictitious CO₂ sequestration using the geometry of a real geological site and a suite of suitable electromagnetic methods with different source/receiver configurations and different sensitivity patterns. All available geological information is processed and directly implemented into the computational domain, which is discretized by unstructured tetrahedral grids. We thus demonstrate the performance capability of our numerical simulation techniques. The scenario considers a CO₂ injection in approximately 1100 m depth. The expected changes in conductivity were inferred from preceding laboratory measurements. A resistive anomaly is caused within the conductive brines of the undisturbed reservoir horizon. The resistive nature of the anomaly is enhanced by the CO₂ dissolution regime, which prevails in the high‐salinity environment. Due to the physicochemical properties of CO₂, the affected portion of the subsurface is laterally widespread but very thin. We combine controlled‐source electromagnetics, borehole transient electromagnetics, and the direct‐current resistivity method to perform a virtual experiment with the aim of scrutinizing a set of source/receiver configurations with respect to coverage, resolution, and detectability of the anomalous CO₂ plume prior to the field survey. Our simulation studies are carried out using the 3D codes developed in our working group. They are all based on linear and higher order Lagrange and Nédélec finite‐element formulations on unstructured grids, providing the necessary flexibility with respect to the complex real‐world geometry. We provide different strategies for addressing the accuracy of numerical simulations in the case of arbitrary structures. The presented computations demonstrate the expected great advantage of positioning transmitters or receivers close to the target. For direct‐current geoelectrics, 50% change in electric potential may be detected even at the Earth's surface. Monitoring with inductive methods is also promising. For a well‐positioned surface transmitter, more than 10% difference in the vertical electric field is predicted for a receiver located 200 m above the target. Our borehole transient electromagnetics results demonstrate that traditional transient electromagnetics with a vertical magnetic dipole source is not well suited for monitoring a thin horizontal resistive target. This is due to the mainly horizontal current system, which is induced by a vertical magnetic dipole.