A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

To conserve or not to conserve (mass in numerical models)

Mass conservation is a fundamental physical law. Yet, computer models aiming to simulate Earth evolution commonly fail to respect it. Indeed, most geodynamic models implement phase transitions of rocks – such as metamorphism (solid–solid phase change) or melting (solid–liquid phase change) – following a simplifying assumption dating back to 1897 which is conserving volume rather than mass. The underlying problem is present at different scales, illustrated here by three examples: metamorphism in the continental crust, phase changes in the mantle transition zone and melt crystallization during columnar jointing. These illustrate that phase changes may become a driving force of a system's deformation and point to important differences with respect to simplified models. Developing and applying mass‐conserving approaches in future modelling tools are therefore not an option, but a necessity.     

Climate control on the evolution of Late Pleistocene alluvial‐fan and aeolian sand‐sheet systems in NW Germany

The Late Pleistocene was characterized by rapid climate oscillations with alternation of warm and cold periods that lasted up to several thousand years. Although much work has been carried out on the palaeoclimate reconstruction, a direct correlation of ice‐core, marine and terrestrial records is still difficult. Here we present new data from late Middle Pleniglacial to Lateglacial alluvial‐fan and aeolian sand‐sheet deposits in northwestern Germany. Records of Late Pleniglacial alluvial fans in central Europe are very rare, and OSL dating is used to determine the timing of fan aggradation. In contrast to fluvial systems that commonly show a delay between climate change and incision/aggradation, the small alluvial‐fan systems of the Senne area responded rapidly to climatic changes and therefore act as important terrestrial climate archives for this time span. The onset of alluvial‐fan deposition correlates with the climate change from warm to cold at the end of MIS 3 (29.3±3.2 ka). Strong fan progradation started at 24.4±2.8 ka and may be related to a period of higher humidity. The vertical stacking pattern of sedimentary facies and channel styles indicate a subsequrent overall decrease in water and sediment supply, with less sustained discharges and more sporadic runoffs from the catchment area, corresponding to an increasing aridity in central Europe during the Late Pleniglacial. Major phases of channel incision and fan aggradation may have been controlled by millennial‐scale Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. The incision of channel systems is attributed to unstable climate phases at cold–warm (dry–wet) or warm–cold (wet–dry) transitions. The alluvial‐fan deposits are bounded by an erosion surface and are overlain by aeolian sand‐sheets that were periodically affected by flash‐floods. This unconformity might be correlated with the Beuningen Gravel Bed, which is an important marker horizon in deposits of the Late Pleniglacial resulting from deflation under polar desert conditions. The deposition of aeolian sand‐sheet systems (19.6±2.1 to 13.1±1.5 ka) indicates a rapid increase in aridity at the end of the Late Pleniglacial. Intercalated flash‐floods deposits and palaeosols (Finow type) point to temporarily wet conditions during the Lateglacial. The formation of an ephemeral channel network probably marks the warm‐cold transition from the Allerød to the Younger Dryas.     

The Požarevac loess–paleosol sequence: a record of increased aridity in the south-eastern margin of the Carpathian Basin during the last 350 ka

The loess sequence preserved in the Požarevac brickyard in north-eastern Serbia comprises eight loess units separated by seven paleosols. Geochronological investigation using amino acid racemization and luminescence dating support stratigraphic correlations of loess units L3, S2LL1 and L1 at the Požarevac section with loess of glacial cycles E [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10], D (MIS 9–8), C (MIS 7–6) and B (MIS 5–2) across central Europe. Correlation with the marine oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and associated paleoclimatic inferences are further supported by magnetic susceptibility, particle size and carbonate content measured in Požarevac sediments. Malacological investigations at the Požarevac section reveal the continuous presence of the Chondrula tridens and Helicopsis striata faunal assemblages throughout the last 350 ka. The loess malacological fauna, which is characterized by the complete absence of cold-resistant and cold-preferring species, suggests a stable, dry and relatively warm glacial and interglacial climate, compared with other central European loess localities. Together these data suggest that the south-eastern part of the Carpathian (Pannonian, Middle Danube) Basin was a refugium for warm-preferring and xerophilous land-snails during the generally unfavorable glacial climates of the late Middle and Late Pleistocene.     

Correlation between the energy supplied by reconnection and the magnetospheric energy consumption

This study investigates the statistical correlation between the power input into the magnetosphere due to reconnection and the subsequent dissipation of this energy in the magnetosphere as measured by the U_T parameter (Perreault and Akasofu, 1978). It is found that of the three expressions for this energy input P_W, P_K (Gonzalez and Gonzalez, 1984) and ε (Perreault and Akasofu, 1975; Kan et al.,1980), P_W yields the highest correlation with the energy consumption of the magnetosphere.     

A review of various factors influencing the stable carbon isotope ratio of organic lake sediments by the change from glacial to post-glacial environmental conditions

A survey is made of various factors influencing the ${}^{13}\text{C}{}^{12}\text{C}$ ratio of the organic component in lake sediments, focusing on the behaviour at the change from glacial to post-glacial environmental conditions.Increase in the ¹³C content of the organic sediment is caused by increase in temperature and the corresponding decrease of the supply of molecular CO₂ in the water of the lakes. An increase in the rate of organic production in the lakes may also, perhaps, cause a corresponding ¹³C increase. An increase of the fermentation of organic mud in the lakes may also have an effect in the same direction.Decrease in the ¹³C content of the organic sediment is caused by the change of the relative amounts of production of plankton and submersed macrophytes in the lakes from mainly submersed macrophytes to mainly plankton. A decrease towards almost complete absence of bicarbonate and CO₂ originating from carbonate rocks will also lead to a ¹³C decrease in the organic sediments. The same effect has the change of the terrestrial vegetation cover from almost complete absence to complete cover. A possible decrease of the ¹³C content in the atmospheric CO₂ has an effect in the same direction.     

Pi 2 pulsations and the eastward electrojet: A case study

We report the results of a case study of two Pi 2 pulsations observed near the eastward electrojet by the Scandinavian Magnetometer Array. The power of the two Pi 2 pulsations, calculated using a standard Fast Fourier Transform method, peaks near the centre of the eastward electrojet. For both events there is a strong latitudinal gradient in the power poleward of the equatorward border of the electrojet. The sense of polarisation is predominantly clockwise at the northern stations and anticlockwise at the southern stations although the reversal from clockwise to anticlockwise does not occur at a constant latitude. For the first event the polarisation reversal occurs at higher latitudes in the western half of the array; for the second the polarisation reversal occurs at higher latitudes at the edges of the array. The polarisation reversal does not appear to be related to the location of the eastward electrojet. Equivalent current vectors of the Pi 2 pulsations, obtained by rotating the band pass filtered data through 90°, exhibit clear vortex structures in both events. The vortices change sense of direction at half the period of the Pi 2 pulsation. A simple model for the ionospheric electric field in accord with the field line resonance theory reconstructs the basic features of the observed Pi 2 equivalent current system. We thus conclude that Pi 2 signatures in the region of the eastward electrojet and far away from the auroral break-up region are governed by the field line resonance mechanism.     

Near-infrared imaging of H2 in molecular outflows from young stars

In an attempt to identify the molecular shocks associated with the entrainment of ambient gas by collimated stellar winds from young stars, we have imaged a number of known molecular outflows in H₂ v=1-0 S(1) and wide-band K. In each flow, the observed H₂ features are closely associated with peaks in the CO outflow maps. We therefore suggest that the H₂ results from shocks associated with the acceleration or entrainment of ambient, molecular gas. This molecular material may be accelerated either in a bow shock at the head of the flow, or along the length of the flow through a turbulent mixing layer.     

The relation between the synodic and sidereal rotation period of the Sun

The relation between the synodic and sidereal rotation period of the Sun for an arbitrary date of observation is derived taking into account details of the Earth's motion. The transformation procedure between the synodic (apparent) and sidereal rotation period presented here can be performed without using the annual ephemerides.