The decision method of emergency supplies collection with fuzzy demand constraint under background of sudden disaster

As the stages of emergency response shift, it is an important task in the early stage of emergency response to handle emergency supply (ES) collection with fuzzy demand and multi-hub ES collection network. Taking into consideration the constraints such as no limit to collection time, capacity constraint to single hubs and different demand levels to be met by collection, this paper aims at establishing a mathematic planning model with two objectives, namely the shortest collection time and the optimal collection cost. In terms of algorithm design, the sequential enumeration method (SEM) was employed to solve the model, for higher iteration efficiency and lower difficulty level of the algorithm. The first step was to find the optimal ES collection time, collection route and allocation program in the direct shipment mode, the hub-and-spoke mode and the mixed mode. Then, the three modes were compared in terms of the collection route planning, the shortest collection time, the shortest collection route and the optimal collection cost of the entire ES collection network. The numerical example showed that compared with the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, the result of SEM is basically the same with that of SA algorithm; however, SEM is simpler, more practical and easier to operate, so that it is of better promotional value.     

Rethinking communication in risk interpretation and action

We have studied the attenuation characteristics of eastern Himalaya and southern Tibet by using local earthquake data set that consists of 123 well-located events, recorded by the Himalayan Nepal Tibet Seismic Experiment operated during 2001–2003. We have used single backscattering model to calculate frequency-dependent values of coda Q (\(Q_\mathrm{c}\)). The estimation of \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) is made at central frequencies 2, 4, 8 and 12 Hz through five lapse time windows from 10 to 50 s starting at double the travel time of the S-wave. The observed \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) is found to be strongly frequency-dependent and follows a similar trend as observed in other tectonically active parts of the Himalaya. The trend of variation of \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) with lapse time and the corresponding apparent depths is also studied. Increase in \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) values with the lapse time suggests that the deeper part of the study region is less heterogeneous than the shallower part. The observed values of \(Q_0\) (\(Q_\mathrm{c}\) at 1 Hz) and frequency parameter n indicate that the medium beneath the study area is highly heterogeneous and tectonically very active. A regionalization of the estimated \(Q_0\) is carried out, and a contour map is prepared for the whole region. Some segments of Lesser Himalaya and Sub-Himalaya exhibit very low \(Q_0\) , while the whole Tethyan Himalaya and some parts of Greater Himalaya are characterized by low \(Q_0\) values. Our results are comparable with those obtained from tectonically active regions in the world.     

Hydrogeochemical assessment of surface and groundwater resources of Korba coalfield,Central India: environmental implications

The present study assesses the impact of coal mining on surface and groundwater resources of Korba Coalfield, Central India. Accordingly, water samples collected from various sources are analyzed for major ions, trace elements, and other mine effluent parameters. Results show that the groundwater samples are slightly acidic, whereas river water and mine water samples are mildly alkaline. Elevated concentrations of Ca²⁺, Na⁺, HCO₃ ^?, and SO₄ ^2? alongside the molar ratios (Ca²⁺+Mg²⁺)/(SO₄ ^2?+HCO₃ ^?) <1 and Na⁺/Cl^? >1 suggest that silicate weathering (water-rock interaction) coupled with ion exchange are dominant solute acquisition processes controlling the chemistry of groundwater in the study area. The overall hydrogeochemistry of the area is dominated by two major hydrogeochemical facies (i.e., Ca–Cl–SO₄ and Ca–HCO₃). Analysis of groundwater and river water quality index (GRWQI) elucidates that majority (82%) of samples are of “excellent” to “good” category, and the remaining 12% are of “poor” quality. Similarly, the effluent water quality index (EWQI) indicates that 6 out of 8 samples belong to excellent quality. Concentration of trace element constituents such as As, Zn, Cu, Cr, and Cd is found to be well within the stipulated limits for potable use, except for Fe, Mn, and Pb. Suitability of water samples for irrigation purpose, established using standard tools like Wilcox and USSL diagrams, reveal “excellent to permissible” category for majority of the samples. The present study also substantiates the effectiveness of the measures implemented for the treatment of mine effluent water.     

Mapping thermal comfort in Iran based on geostatistical methods and bioclimatic indices

The cognition of thermal comfort plays a pivotal role in human life and activities. Recognizing thermal comfort based on climatic parameters is substantially significant. The main objective of the present study is to map thermal comfort using statistics from 43 meteorological stations, from 1970 to 2013. Initially, according to temperature and relative humidity, annual and seasonal thermal comfort conditions were mapped, and later bioclimatic human thermal comfort conditions in line with spatial factors were zoned based on bioclimatic indexes of Temperature Humidity Index (THI), effective temperature (ET) and Relative Strain Index (RSI). Among geostatistical methods, empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) method with less RSME is more efficient. The annual distribution of temperature changes according to spatial factors of rugged topography and elevation, and latitude affects relative humidity. Thermal comfort in the northern and western half of Iran is higher than the southern and eastern areas of the country. Spatial factors of latitude and altitude reduce bioclimatic uniformity and create small areas with or without thermal comfort conditions. Bioclimatic indicators based on air temperature and relative humidity range of bioclimatic zones show. The results of ET and THI divide the whole country into six zones, from lack of thermal comfort to having thermal comfort conditions. Areas of southern strip as well as central and southeastern parts of the country do not have any human thermal comfort conditions in most of the year.     

Numerical investigation of slippage characteristics of normal and reverse faults under fluid injection and production

Nowadays, a great deal of petroleum geology and engineering projects associated with underground fluid injection and production (FIP) are widely conducted around the world. The FIP engineering may cause complex stress perturbation and trigger seismicity, which have been extensively reported and studied. In this paper, we investigated the fault slippage characteristics influenced by FIP. It reveals that for a fault (normal or reverse) that penetrating through the reservoir into the caprock and underburden, the footwall reservoir is the relatively stable one for fluid injection in a fluid FIP engineering. No matter it is a normal or a reverse fault, injecting fluid into footwall reservoir and producing fluid from the hanging wall reservoir can induce smaller fault slippage. After having determined the better fluid injection–production pattern, we studied the influence of three key factors of fault, i.e., dip, offset and depth, on fault stability. We found that, in our range of study, the influence of single action of fault dip, offset or depth on fault slippage in a FIP engineering was small. However, the influence of the combined effects of the factors may be large. Finally, we studied the effect of different pressure management scenarios on fault responses based on the specific fluid injection–production pattern. The results revealed that appropriate pressure management could effectively reduce fault slippage in a FIP engineering. However, inappropriate pressure management may cause much larger fault slippage. Given these concerns, it is therefore vital that the effect of pressure management scenario to be modeled prior to FIP.     

A novel geographical information system-based Ant Miner algorithm model for delineating groundwater flowing artesian well boundary: a case study from Iraqi southern and western deserts

The Ant Miner algorithm was compared with the bivariate frequency ratio (FR) and boosted regression trees (BRT) algorithms in terms of its capacity to assess groundwater potential. A geospatial dataset was prepared that contains two components: a flowing well inventory map and eleven factors relevant to groundwater conditions. Average nearest neighbor technique was used to investigate the spatial pattern of flowing wells and to find the appropriate distance between flowing and nonflowing points in the study area. A wrapper approach known as random forest classifier and a filtering approach known as information gain ratio were used to identify the most relevant groundwater factors. The developed models were validated via the area under the operating characteristic curve. Results revealed that the Ant Miner model performed better in terms of both success (0.944) and prediction (0.92) rates compared to FR and BRT. Furthermore, the Ant Miner algorithm derived five simple, easily interpreted rules for predicting groundwater potential that can be used by hydrogeologists for identifying potential groundwater well locations with minimal effort and cost.     

Assimilation of Indian Doppler Weather Radar observations for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone

In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity (Z), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.