Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.     

Characterizing impulsive wave-in-deck loads on coastal bridges by probabilistic models of impact maxima and rise times

When waves impact a seawall, a vertical breakwater, an exposed jetty, a pier or a coastal bridge, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer can be very violent and its duration exceptionally short. In the case of coastal bridges, whose spans are designed to have very short vibration period, wave impacts might have duration comparable to the natural period of oscillation of the structure, which therefore becomes prone to damage and failure. Previous forensic studies have documented the relative importance of impulsive loads on deck suspended structure, demonstrating the need to assess the effect of wave impacts on both the stability and the integrity of structural members since the early stages of the design. This requires the estimation of the dynamic characteristics of the loading pattern, and in particular the wave impulse and corresponding impact maxima and rise times. Based on the conservation of momentum, functional relationships between these parameters have been identified since pioneering work dating back to the late '30s of the 20th century. The complexity of the loading process, however, results in a significantly large variability of wave impact maxima and rise times even under similar conditions, suggesting the need for a probabilistic approach to the definition of the relationship between these two variables, to be applied when estimating the dynamic properties of wave for use in structural analysis of coastal structures. In the recent past, some effort has been made to identify functional relationships between such quantities; these require the assessment of the conditional quantiles (or similarly the conditional distribution) of wave impact maxima given the rise times. In this paper, we compare three different statistical methods proposed in the literature to accomplish this task, in order to assess the reliability of the approach and suggest guidelines for practical applications. A copula-based method, Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), and quantile regression are applied to measurements from large-scale 3-dimensional physical model tests. The investigation suggests that quantile regression gives the simplest results to be used in practice; copula approach and GAMLSS are possible alternative when semi-parametric or fully parametric modeling is needed.     

Nouvelles données sur le Messinien de Méditerranée occidentale : les gisements à Aphanius crassicaudus (Agassiz poissons téléostéens,cyprinodontiformes) des Marches (Italie)

Résumén

La découverte, dans le Nord des Marches (Italie), de nouveaux gisements de Poissons Cyprinodontidae appartenant à l’espèce Aphanius crassicaudus (AGASSIZ), conduit à réexaminer, à la lumière des données lithostratigraphiques, la signification géodynamique des ichthyofaunes messiniennes de ce secteur de l’Apennin. Après avoir précisé la position stratigraphique et la répartition paléogéographique des gisements étudiés, les auteurs montrent que le développement des faunes à Aphanius crassicaudus (AGASSIZ) dans les eaux saumâtres du domaine continental n’implique pas la disparition corrélative du milieu marin. En effet, certains genres marins sont parfois présents à côté de cette espèce, comme c’est le cas dans le gisement de Pésaro. Les auteurs contestent en outre l’interprétation selon laquelle le fait qu’aucune ichthyofaune marine ne soit connue dans le Messinien supérieur d’Italie puisse suffire à conclure que la Méditerranée était asséchée pendant le dépôt de la « Formation à colombacci »     

Hamiltonian perturbation theory on a manifold

This paper deals with Hamiltonian perturbation theory for systems which, like Euler-Poinsot (the rigid body with a fixed point and no torques), are degenerate and do not possess a global system of action-angle coordinates. It turns out that the usual methods of perturbation theory, which are essentially local being based on the construction of normal forms within the domain of a local coordinate system, are not immediately usable to study perturbations of these systems, since degeneracy makes impossible to control that the system does not fall into a singularity of the coordinates. To overcome this difficulty, we develop a global formulation of Hamiltonian perturbation theory, in which the normal forms are globally defined on the phase space manifold. The key for this study lies in the geometry of the fibration by the invariant tori of an integrable degenerate Hamiltonian system, which is described by some generalizations of the Liouville-Arnol'd theorem and is reviewed in the paper. As an application, we provide a global formulation of Nekhoroshev's theorem on the stability for exponentially long times.     

The relation between karst spring discharge and rainfall by cross-correlation analysis (Campania, southern Italy)

The relation between rainfall and the discharge from two springs, located at the base of different karst massifs in southern Italy, is investigated by cross-correlation analyses. Data are derived from a continuous time window of 13 years. The input signal involves multiple rainfall time series (cumulative rainfall over varying time windows), while the time series of daily spring discharges are used as the output signal. Analyses were first conducted on the unprocessed data and then on data for which linear trends and seasonal components had been removed, the latter by a spectral analysis. Analyses contributed to the investigation of the time required for water to flow through the karst aquifers at the two sites. Long time intervals of the cumulative rainfall (>60 days) appear to be the main component affecting the spring discharge hydrographs; shorter time intervals seem to be related to quick-flow paths. Some statistics about the linear regression and the meaning of the cross-correlation analysis are discussed. Cross-correlation analysis can provide strong support for identification of the main rainfall contribution and the travel time through the main infiltration pathways in aquifers.     

Far-infrared observations of main sequence stars surrounded by dust shells

We present 50 and 100µm photometry and size information for several main sequence stars surrounded by dust shells. The observations from NASA's Kuiper Airborne Observatory include the Vega-like stars, Beta Pic, Fomalhaut, as well as four stars suggested by Walker and Wolstencroft to belong possibly to the same class. The results of our observations are best interpreted as upper limits to the far-infrared sizes of the dust clouds around all of the stars except Fomalhaut and Beta Pic. We have also fit simple, optically thin models to the Beta Pic data to explore the range of shell parameters consistent with our limits and with previous observations.     

Wavefield Migration plus Monte Carlo Imaging of 3D Prestack Seismic Data

Prestack wave‐equation migration has proved to be a very accurate shot‐by‐shot imaging tool. However, 3D imaging with this technique of a large field acquisition, especially one with hundreds of thousands of shots, is prohibitively costly. Simply adapting the technique to migrate many superposed shot‐gathers simultaneously would render 3D wavefield prestack migration cost‐effective but it introduces uncontrolled non‐physical interference among the shot‐gathers, making the final image useless. However, it has been observed that multishot signal interference can be kept under some control by averaging over many such images, if each multishot migration is modified by a random phase encoding of the frequency spectra of the seismic traces. In this article, we analyse this technique, giving a theoretical basis for its observed behaviour: that the error of the image produced by averaging over M phase encoded migrations decreases as M^?1 . Furthermore, we expand the technique and define a general class of Monte‐Carlo encoding methods for which the noise variance of the average imaging condition decreases as M^?1 ; these methods thus all converge asymptotically to the correct reflectivity map, without generating prohibitive costs. The theoretical asymptotic behaviour is illustrated for three such methods on a 2D test case. Numerical verification in 3D is then presented for one such method implemented with a 3D PSPI extrapolation kernel for two test cases: the SEG–EAGE salt model and a real test constructed from field data.     

Thermal decay of carbonate dimension stones: fabric,physical and mechanical changes

This paper deals with the effects of thermal stresses on selected carbonate rocks used as dimension stones. They are Mesozoic calcareous and dolomitic rocks cropping out in Apulia (southern Italy) that, for their physico-mechanical and aesthetic properties, have always been finding a large application both as ornamental stones and as simple construction materials; their use is attested not only in Italy, in works of archaeological, historical and artistic interest too. The cause–effect relationships of thermal degradation were studied by means of an artificial accelerated ageing test, in order to provide a perspective about the decay of carbonate stones due to diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations, as well as thermal shocks during events of fire development. The stone samples were subjected to thermal cycles in a muffle furnace, ranging from 100 to 700 °C; after each cycle, several non-destructive and semi-destructive tests were carried out: mass and volume measurements, mercury intrusion porosimetry, sclerometer tests, ultrasonic tests, thin-section observations and determination of chromatic alterations through image analysis and Munsell charts method. In this way, the qualitative and quantitative modifications induced in fabric, physical and mechanical properties were discussed. The results highlight the fundamental role of depositional and diagenetic fabric that, together with mineralogical composition, represents the most significant discriminating factor in the response of the stone to thermal stresses.     

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.