A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Microphytobenthos: The ecological role of the “secret garden” of unvegetated,shallow-water marine habitats. II. role in sediment stability and shallow-water food webs

The microphytobenthos form an important component of all shallow-water ecosystems where enough light reaches the sediment surface to support appreciable primary production. Although less conspicuous than macroalgae or vascular plants, the microphytobenthos can contribute significantly to primary production and can modify habitat characteristics. The microphytobenthos alter sediment properties (e.g., erodibility) both directly, in the extreme forming a mat or scum on the sediment surface, and indirectly by modifying the activities of benthic infauna (e.g., pelletization, burrowing, tube building, and sediment tracking). Carbon dioxide fixed by the microphytobenthos supports higher, grazing trophic levels. These include deposit-feeding and suspension-feeding macrofauna as well as meiofauna and microfauna. Quantitative relations between the feeding and growth rates of macrofauna and the abundance of microphytobenthos and suspended organic matter (i.e., functional responses) are reviewed. Given the current state of knowledge of the direct and indirect interactions involving trophic dynamics, sediment properties, and benthic microalgae, we argue for reductionist studies of particular interactions as distinct entities. This is a prerequisite for the emergence of a comprehensive picture of unvegetated ecosystems and the ability to predict their responses to man’s activities. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00005     

Linear Time-Invariant Compensation of Cup Anemometer and Vane Inertia

We propose a method to compensate for the phase lag and the amplitudeattenuation in the cup anemometer signal. These two effects, caused by theinstrument's inertia, are the major flaws of the cup anemometer in additionto over-speeding. Since the instrument's response is invariant in wavenumber (not frequency) representation, we transform the signals to becompensated from the time domain to the spatial domain by using Taylor'shypothesis. In the spatial domain we apply a linear time-invariant filterto eliminate the phase lag and the amplitude attenuation. The proposedprocedure improves instrument performance down to spatial scales equal toor smaller than the distance constant of the anemometer. The method for cupanemometer compensation is presented in detail and later adapted for vanes.     

Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for?>?100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.     

Mean and Turbulent Flow Statistics in a Trellised Agricultural Canopy

Flow physics is investigated in a two-dimensional trellised agricultural canopy to examine that architecture’s unique signature on turbulent transport. Analysis of meteorological data from an Oregon vineyard demonstrates that the canopy strongly influences the flow by channelling the mean flow into the vine-row direction regardless of the above-canopy wind direction. Additionally, other flow statistics in the canopy sub-layer show a dependance on the difference between the above-canopy wind direction and the vine-row direction. This includes an increase in the canopy displacement height and a decrease in the canopy-top shear length scale as the above-canopy flow rotates from row-parallel towards row-orthogonal. Distinct wind-direction-based variations are also observed in the components of the stress tensor, turbulent kinetic energy budget, and the energy spectra. Although spectral results suggest that sonic anemometry is insufficient for resolving all of the important scales of motion within the canopy, the energy spectra peaks still exhibit dependencies on the canopy and the wind direction. These variations demonstrate that the trellised-canopy’s effect on the flow during periods when the flow is row-aligned is similar to that seen by sparse canopies, and during periods when the flow is row-orthogonal, the effect is similar to that seen by dense canopies.     

Consequences of change and variability in sea ice on marine ecosystem and biogeochemical processes during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program

Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO₂, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO₂ will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks.     

Evaluating a modified point-based method to downscale cell-based climate variable data to high-resolution grids

To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets.     

Innovation for sustainable energy from a pro-poor perspective

The development and transfer of clean energy technologies to achieve universal energy access is challenging due to the inherent complexities of the energy sector, and the energy governance and financial systems in developing economies. Innovation is an essential part of successfully addressing these difficulties. Duplicating the energy infrastructure models of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet the needs of poor consumers. To the extent that innovation can accelerate energy access, it is important to understand the specific types of innovations that are necessary and how they might be facilitated. The general features of existing international clean energy innovation systems, which are predominantly driven by the markets and emissions reduction mechanisms of developed and rapidly growing emerging economies, are reviewed and the alignment of these systems to the innovation processes required to extend energy access globally is evaluated. Drawing on the innovation policy literature, the attributes of effective international and domestic energy innovation systems that are pro-poor and the associated policy approaches are identified.