Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: a multimodel comparison

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.     

It takes a garden: Cultivating citizen-subjects in organized garden projects

Since the 1980’s organized garden projects have proliferated in a institutional settings associated with the “roll-out” neoliberal state and the sad consequences of neoliberalism more generally: jails, schools, hospitals and other clinical settings for “at-risk” populations. This article advances the concept “organized garden project” over the richly connotative, but inchoate term “community garden,” and links the long episodic history of garden projects with changing discourses about the supposedly transformative power of gardening practice for individual and social transformation. The article highlights two organized garden projects within the San Francisco Bay area, a chief locus in the movement to using organized garden projects to produce new individual and collective subjectivities. The case studies assess, from the typically unambiguous standpoint of the garden organizers, the nature of the subjectivity that gardening practice is supposed to produce, the need for such alternative subjectivity and the “difference” such alternatives are believed to make for the individual and in the wider social, political and economic milieu.     

Eutrophication erodes inter-basin variation in macrophytes and co-occurring invertebrates in a shallow lake: combining ecology and palaeoecology

Aquatic biodiversity is commonly linked with environmental variation in lake networks, but less is known about how local factors may influence within-lake biological heterogeneity. Using a combined ecological and multi-proxy palaeoecological approach we investigated long-term changes in the pathways and processes that underlie eutrophication and water depth effects on lake macrophyte and invertebrate communities across three basins in a shallow lake—Castle Lough, Northern Ireland, UK. Contemporary data allow us to assess how macrophyte assemblages vary in composition and heterogeneity according to basin-specific factors (e.g. variation in water depth), while palaeoecological data (macrophytes and co-occurring invertebrates) enable us to infer basin-specific impacts and susceptibilities to nutrient-enrichment. Results indicate that variability in water depth promotes assemblage variation amongst the lake basins, stimulating within-lake macrophyte assemblage heterogeneity and hence higher lake biodiversity. The palaeo-data indicate that eutrophication has acted as a strong homogenising agent of macrophyte and invertebrate diversities and abundances over time at the whole-lake scale. This novel finding strongly suggests that, as eutrophication advances, the influence of water depth on community heterogeneity is gradually eroded and that ultimately a limited set of eutrophication-tolerant species will become homogeneously distributed across the entire lake.     

Quasi-periodic fluctuations in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas region in a coupled climate model

We report an analysis of the mechanisms responsible for interannual variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in a control integration of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) is dominated by a quasi-periodic ∼7-year signal. Analyses show that the mechanism involves a competition between convection and advection. Advection carries cold, fresh, Arctic water over warm, salty, Atlantic water, while convection periodically mixes these two water masses vertically, raising SST. Convection is able to raise SST because of the presence of a subsurface temperature maximum. The GIN Seas convection in HadCM3 is forced by wind stress anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The consequent SST anomalies feedback positively to force the atmosphere, resulting in a weak spectral peak (at ∼7 years) in GIN Seas sea level pressure. Although there is no evidence of a similar oscillation in reality, key aspects of the simulated mechanism may be relevant to understanding variability in the real GIN Seas. In particular, the potential for increases in convection to raise SST offers a possible new explanation for increases in SST that occurred between the 1960s and the late 1980s/early 1990s. These SST increases may have contributed to the observed sea-ice retreat. In addition, a positive feedback between GIN Seas SST and the atmosphere could contribute to the persistence of the NAO, potentially helping to explain its red spectrum or recent northeastward shift.

X-ray observations of the edge-on star-forming galaxy NGC 891 and its supernova SN1986J

We present XMM–Newton observations of NGC 891, a nearby edge-on spiral galaxy. We analyse the extent of the diffuse emission emitted from the disc of the galaxy, and find that it has a single-temperature profile with best-fitting temperature of 0.26 keV, though the fit of a dual-temperature plasma with temperatures of 0.08 and 0.30 keV is also acceptable. There is a considerable amount of diffuse X-ray emission protruding from the disc in the north-west direction out to approximately 6 kpc. We analyse the point-source population using a Chandra observation, using a maximum-likelihood method to find that the slope of the cumulative luminosity function of point sources in the galaxy is  −0.77^+0.13_−0.1  . Using a sample of other local galaxies, we compare the X-ray and infrared properties of NGC 891 with those of 'normal' and starburst spiral galaxies, and conclude that NGC 891 is most likely a starburst galaxy in a quiescent state. We establish that the diffuse X-ray luminosity of spirals scales with the far-infrared luminosity as   L _X∝ L ^0.87±0.07_FIR  , except for extreme starbursts, and NGC 891 does not fall in the latter category. We study the supernova SN1986J in both XMM–Newton and Chandra observations, and find that the X-ray luminosity has been declining with time more steeply than expected  ( L _X∝ t ⁻³)  .     

Interpretation of Na–Cl–Br Systematics in Sedimentary Basin Brines: Comparison of Concentration, Element Ratio, and Isometric Log-ratio Approaches

Mathematicians and geochemists have long realized that compositional data intrinsically exhibit a structure prone to spurious and induced correlations. This paper demonstrates, using the Na–Cl–Br system, that these mathematical problems are exacerbated in the study of sedimentary basin brines by such processes as the evaporation or dissolution of salts owing to their high salinities. Using two published datasets of Na–Cl–Br data for fluids from the Appalachian Basin, it is shown that log concentration and Na/Br versus Cl/Br methods for displaying solute chemistry may lead to misinterpretation of mixing trends between meteoric waters (for example shallow drinking water aquifers) and basinal brines, partially due to spurious mathematical relationships. An alternative approach, based on the isometric log-ratio transformation of molar concentration data, is developed and presented as an alternative method, free from potential numerical problems of the traditional methods. The utility, intuitiveness, and potential for mathematical problems of the three methods are compared and contrasted. Because the Na–Cl–Br system is a useful tool for sourcing solutes and investigating the evolution of basinal brines, results from this research may impact such critical topics as evaluating sources of brine contamination in the environment (possibly related to oil and gas production), evaluating the behavior of fluids in the reservoir during hydraulic fracturing, and tracking movement of fluids as a result of geologic CO₂ sequestration.     

Fingerprinting TCE in a bedrock aquifer using compound-specific isotope analysis

A dual isotope approach based on compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) of carbon (C) and chlorine (Cl) was used to identify sources of persistent trichloroethylene (TCE) that caused the shut-down in 1994 of a municipal well in an extensive fractured dolostone aquifer beneath Guelph, Ontario. Several nearby industrial properties have known subsurface TCE contamination; however, only one has created a comprehensive monitoring network in the bedrock. The impacted municipal well and many monitoring wells were sampled for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), inorganic parameters, and CSIA. A wide range in isotope values was observed at the study site. The TCE varies between -35.6‰ and -21.8‰ and from 1.6‰ to 3.2‰ for δ(13) C and δ(37) Cl, respectively. In case of cis-1,2-dichloroethene, the isotope values range between -36.3‰ and -18.9‰ and from 2.4‰ to 4.7‰ for δ(13) C and δ(37) Cl, respectively. The dual isotope approach represented by a plot of δ(13) C vs. δ(37) Cl shows the municipal well samples grouped in a domain clearly separate from all other samples from the property with the comprehensive well network. The CSIA results collected under non-pumping and short-term pumping conditions thus indicate that this particular property, which has been studied intensively for several years, is not a substantial contributor of the TCE presently in the municipal well under non-pumping conditions. This case study demonstrates that CSIA signatures would have been useful much earlier in the quest to examine sources of the TCE in the municipal well if bedrock monitoring wells had been located at several depths beneath each of the potential TCE-contributing properties. Moreover, the CSIA results show that microbial reductive dechlorination of TCE occurs in some parts of the bedrock aquifer. At this site, the use of CSIA for C and Cl in combination with analyses of VOC and redox parameters proved to be important due to the complexity introduced by biodegradation in the complex fractured rock aquifer. It is highly recommended to revisit the study when the municipal well is back into full operation.     

Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability

The predictability of ocean and climate variables is investigated, using a perfect model-based case study approach that recognises that predictability is dependent on the initial climate state. In line with previous studies, large scale ocean variables show predictability for several years or more; by contrast, the predictability of climate variables is generally limited to 2 years at most. That predictability shows high sensitivity to the initial state is demonstrated by predictable climate signals arising in different regions, variables and seasons for different initial conditions. The predictability of climate variables in the second year is of particular interest, because this is beyond the timescale that is usually considered to be the limit of seasonal predictability. For different initial conditions, second year predictability is found in: temperatures in southeastern North America (winter) and western Europe (winter and summer), and precipitation in India (summer monsoon) and in the tropical South Atlantic. Second year predictability arises either from persistence of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and related ocean heat content anomalies, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, or from mechanisms that involve El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.