New Method for Continuous Transmissivity Profiling in Fractured Rock

A new method is presented to search for hydraulically transmissive features in open boreholes in bedrock. A flexible borehole liner made of a watertight, nylon fabric is filled with water to create a constant driving head to evert (reverse of invert) the liner down the hole so that the liner pushes the borehole water out into transmissive fractures or other permeable features. The descent rate is governed by the bulk transmissivity of the remaining permeable features below the liner. Initially, the liner descent rate or velocity is a measure of transmissivity (T) of the entire hole. As the everting liner passes and seals each permeable feature, changes in the liner velocity indicate the position of each feature and an estimate of T using the Thiem equation for steady radial flow. This method has been performed in boreholes with diameters ranging from 96 to 330 mm. Profiling commonly takes a few hours in holes 200‐ to 300‐m long. After arrival of the liner at the bottom of the hole, the liner acts as a seal preventing borehole cross connection between transmissive features at different depths. Liner removal allows the hole to be used for other purposes. The T values determined using this method in a dolostone aquifer were found to be similar to the values from injection tests using conventional straddle packers. This method is not a replacement for straddle‐packer hydraulic testing of specific zones where greater accuracy is desired; however, it is effective and efficient for scanning entire holes for transmissive features.     

Asteroid 21 Lutetia at 3 μm: Observations with IRTF SpeX

We present observations of Asteroid 21 Lutetia collected 2003–2008 using the SpeX instrument on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) covering 2–4 μm. We also reevaluate NSFCam observations obtained in 1996 (Rivkin, A.S., Lebofsky, L.A., Clark, B.E., Howell, E.S., Britt, D.T. [2000]. Icarus 145, 351–368). Taken together, these show deeper 3-μm band depths (of order 3–5%) in the southern hemisphere of Lutetia, and shallower band depths (of order 2% or less) in the north. Such variation is consistent with observations at shorter wavelength by previous workers (Nedelcu, D.A. et al. [2007]. Astron. Astrophys. 470, 1157–1164; Lazzarin, M. et al. [2010]. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 408, 1433–1437), who observed hemispheric-level variations from C-like spectra to X-like spectra.While the shallowness of absorption bands on Lutetia hinders identification of its surface composition, goethite appears plausible as a constituent in its southern hemisphere (Beck, P., Quirico, E., Sevestre, D., Montes-Hernandez, G., Pommerol, A., Schmitt, B. [2011]. Astron. Astrophys. 526, A85–A89). Mathematical models of space weathered goethite are most consistent with Lutetia’s southern hemisphere spectrum, but more work and further observations are necessary to confirm this suggestion.     

Planning for growth in a natural resource boomtown: challenges for urban planners in Fort McMurray,Alberta

Between 2000 and 2010, the population of the city of Fort McMurray, Alberta increased by 80%, mainly due to the expansion of oil extraction projects and subsidiary industries. Population growth of this magnitude has significant consequences for city planning. While Fort McMurray struggles to keep up with enormous numbers of in-migrants, the cost of living in the city has skyrocketed. Using interviews with city planners and field experience in the city, in this paper I examine the current challenges faced by urban planners in Fort McMurray against the backdrop of global economic decision-making, corporate influence, and commodity dynamics. While the recession of 2008 gave city planners some breathing room, they still struggle with gathering accurate census information and predicting population growth, providing affordable housing, and balancing short-range planning with their long-term goals. Attempts by city planners to address these challenges could provide a contemporary model for urban planning in rapidly growing, resource-dependent communities.     

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.     

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO₂, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO₂. Results indicate that SST and CO₂ change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO₂ change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO₂ and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO₂ change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.     

Global prioritisation of renewable nitrogen for biodiversity conservation and food security

The continuing use of petrochemicals in mineral nitrogen (N) production may be affected by supply or cost issues and climate agreements. Without mineral N, a larger area of cropland is required to produce the same amount of food, impacting biodiversity. Alternative N sources include solar and wind to power the Haber-Bosch process, and the organic options such as green manures, marine algae and aquatic azolla. Solar power was the most land-efficient renewable source of N, with using a tenth as much land as wind energy, and at least 100th as much land as organic sources of N. In this paper, we developed a decision tree to locate these different sources of N at a global scale, or the first time taking into account their spatial footprint and the impact on terrestrial biodiversity while avoiding impact on albedo and cropland, based on global resource and impact datasets. This produced relatively few areas suitable for solar power in the western Americas, central southern Africa, eastern Asia and southern Australia, with areas most suited to wind at more extreme latitudes. Only about 2% of existing solar power stations are in very suitable locations. In regions such as coastal north Africa and central Asia where solar power is less accessible due to lack of farm income, green manures could be used, however, due to their very large spatial footprint only a small area of low productivity and low biodiversity was suitable for this option. Europe in particular faces challenges because it has access to a relatively small area which is suitable for solar or wind power. If we are to make informed decisions about the sourcing of alternative N supplies in the future, and our energy supply more generally, a decision-making mechanism is needed to take global considerations into account in regional land-use planning.     

Real-time storm detection and weather forecast activation through data mining and events processing

Each year across the USA, destructive weather events disrupt transportation and commerce, resulting in both loss of lives and property. Mitigating the impacts of such severe events requires innovative new software tools and cyberinfrastructure through which scientists can monitor data for specific severe weather events such as thunderstorms and launch focused modeling computations for prediction and forecasts of these evolving weather events. Bringing about a paradigm shift in meteorology research and education through advances in cyberinfrastructure is one of the key research objectives of the Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD) project, a large-scale, interdisciplinary NSF funded project spanning ten institutions. In this paper we address the challenges of making cyberinfrastructure frameworks responsive to real-time conditions in the physical environment driven by the use cases in mesoscale meteorology. The contribution of the research is two-fold: on the cyberinfrastructure side, we propose a model for bridging between the physical environment and e-Science¹ workflow systems, specifically through events processing systems, and provide a proof of concept implementation of that model in the context of the LEAD cyberinfrastructure. On the algorithmic side, we propose efficient stream mining algorithms that can be carried out on a continuous basis in real time over large volumes of observational data. ¹ e-Science is used to describe computationally intensive science that is typically carried out in highly distributed network     

Detailed hydraulic head profiles as essential data for defining hydrogeologic units in layered fractured sedimentary rock

This paper describes a study in southern Wisconsin where vertical hydraulic head profiles measured in exceptional detail provided the key data for defining hydrogeologic units (HGUs) in a layered sequence of sandstone, siltstone, shale, and dolostone. The most important data were obtained from corehole MP-6 which was cored 131 m into bedrock and instrumented using a Westbay^® multilevel system with 36 depth discrete monitoring intervals. The resulting head profile is consistant over time and shows eight distinct inflections in hydraulic head. Several of the inflections occur between adjacent permeable units and are likely due to poor vertical connectivity of fracture sets rather than distinct lower permeability layers or aquitards in the conventional sense. No other type of data was capable of identifying the position of such distinct hydrogeologic features. These zones of abrupt head loss provide the primary dataset for delineation of eleven HGUs at MP-6 and are supported by less detailed head profiles at other locations. Although the detailed head profiles are essential, core logs and geophysical logs from other boreholes are nessessary to fully establish the lateral continuity of the HGUs.