The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot European summer of 2003

The summer of 2003 was the hottest on record throughout much of Europe. Understanding how the event developed and the factors that contributed to it may help us improve seasonal forecasting models and assess the risk of such events in the future. This study uses atmosphere-only model integrations and observed data to investigate the potential predictability of the climate anomalies, and in particular the impact that the warming in the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea had on the development of the temperature anomalies. The model results suggest that the temperature anomalies were potentially predictable and that both Indian Ocean and Mediterranean sea surface temperature anomalies contributed to the development of the observed warm and dry anomalies over Europe. Furthermore, it was found that, in the model, the Mediterranean anomalies contributed most strongly to the warming in June and July and the Indian Ocean anomalies enabled the positive temperature anomalies to persist into August. Previously published work has described the role of the Indian monsoon in modulating the seasonal cycle in rainfall over Europe. Comparison with this work suggests a mechanism by which warming in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the persistence of the temperature and precipitation anomalies into August.     

Processes shaping the spatial pattern and seasonality of the surface air temperature response to anthropogenic forcing

In the period 1960–2010, the land surface air temperature (SAT) warmed more rapidly over some regions relative to the global mean. Using a set of time-slice experiments, we highlight how different physical processes shape the regional pattern of SAT warming. The results indicate an essential role of anthropogenic forcing in regional SAT changes from the 1970s to 2000s, and show that both surface–atmosphere interactions and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes can shape regional responses to forcing. Single forcing experiments show that an increase in greenhouse gases can lead to regional changes in land surface warming in winter (DJF) due to snow-albedo feedbacks, and in summer (JJA) due to soil-moisture and cloud feedbacks. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor (AA) emissions induce large spatial variations in SAT, characterized by warming over western Europe, Eurasia, and Alaska. In western Europe, SAT warming is stronger in JJA than in DJF due to substantial increases in clear sky shortwave radiation over Europe, associated with decreases in local AA emissions since the 1980s. In Alaska, the amplified SAT warming in DJF is due to increased downward longwave radiation, which is related to increased water vapor and cloud cover. In this case, although the model was able to capture the regional pattern of SAT change, and the associated local processes, it did not simulate all processes and anomalies correctly. For the Alaskan warming, the model is seen to achieve the correct regional response in the context of a wider North Pacific anomaly that is not consistent with observations. This demonstrates the importance of model evaluation that goes beyond the target variable in detection and attribution studies.     

The role of land surface versus drainage network characteristics in controlling water quality and quantity in a small urban watershed

The processes that control run‐off quantity and quality in urban watersheds are complex and not well understood. Although impervious surface coverage has traditionally been used to examine altered hydrologic response in urban watersheds, several studies suggest that other elements of the urban landscape, particularly those associated with urban infrastructure and the drainage system, play an equally important role. The relative importance of impervious surfaces, stormwater ponds, expansion of the drainage network, and drainage network structures in controlling hydrologic response was examined in the subwatersheds of the Kromma Kill, an urban watershed located in Albany County, NY. In this study, geographic information systems was used to compute geospatial land surface and drainage network properties of 5 Kromma Kill subwatersheds. In these same subwatersheds, water quantity (rainfall and run‐off) and quality (macroinvertebrates, nitrate, total nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids, and nonpurgable organic carbon) parameters were measured. Strong and significant correlations were identified between land surface and drainage network properties and field observations. Causal relationships were then tested using the Environmental Protection Agency's Stormwater Management Model. Field and model analyses suggest that whereas percent imperviousness is a dominant control on water quality, drainage density and slope are equally important. However, for water quantity, whereas imperviousness is positively correlated with increased run‐off volumes, drainage network properties and slope are the dominant controls on run‐off volumes. Results have important implications for stormwater management plans, especially those aimed at reducing the effective impervious surface coverage of urban watersheds. Reducing the percentage of effective imperviousness in a watershed is not a “one size fits all” solution and can help to meet some management objectives, such as reducing nitrogen concentrations and improving water quality, but may not serve as the most effective, and therefore economical, solution for every management objective including reducing run‐off volumes.     

Absence of seasonal patterns in MBT-CBT indices in mid-latitude soils

The degree of methylation and cyclization of bacteria-derived branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) membrane lipids in soils depends on temperature and soil pH. Expressed in the methylation index of branched tetraethers (MBT) and cyclization ratio of branched tetraethers (CBT), these relationships are used to reconstruct past annual mean air temperature (MAT) based on the distribution of branched GDGTs in ancient sediments; the MBT-CBT proxy. Although it was shown that the best correlation of this proxy is with annual MAT, it remains unknown whether a seasonal bias in temperature reconstructions could occur, such as towards a seasonal period of ‘optimal growth’ of the, as yet, unidentified soil bacteria which produce branched GDGTs. To investigate this possibility, soils were sampled from eight different plots in the USA (Minnesota and Ohio), The Netherlands (Texel) and the UK (Devon) in time series over 1 year and analyzed for their branched GDGT content. Further analyses of the branched GDGTs present as core lipids (CLs; the presumed fossil pool) and intact polar lipids (IPLs; the presumed extant pool) were undertaken for two of the investigated soil plots. The amount of IPL-derived branched GDGTs is low relative to the branched GDGT CLs, i.e. only 6-9% of the total branched GDGT pool. In all soils, no clear change was apparent in the distribution of branched GDGT lipids (either core or IPL-derived) with seasonal temperature change; the MBT-CBT temperature proxy gave similar temperature estimates year-round, which generally matched the mean annual soil temperature. In addition to a lack of coherent changes in relative distributions, concentrations of the branched GDGTs did not show clear changes over the seasons. For IPL-derived GDGTs these results suggest that their turnover time in soils is in the order of 1 year or more. Thus, our study does not provide evidence for seasonal effects on the distribution of branched GDGTs in soils, at least at mid-latitudes, and therefore, no direct evidence for a bias of MBT-CBT reconstructed temperatures towards a certain season of optimal growth of the source bacteria. If, however, there is a slight seasonal preference of branched GDGT production, which can easily be obscured by natural variability due to the heterogeneity of soils, then a seasonal bias may potentially still develop over time due to the long turnover time of branched GDGTs.     

Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

The processes that govern the predictability of decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are investigated in a long control simulation of the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere?Cocean model. We elucidate the roles of local stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, and other potential ocean processes, and use our results to build a predictive regression model. The primary influence on MOC variability is found to come from air?Csea heat fluxes over the Eastern Labrador Sea. The maximum correlation between such anomalies and the variations in the MOC occurs at a lead time of 2?years, but we demonstrate that the MOC integrates the heat flux variations over a period of 10?years. The corresponding univariate regression model accounts for 74.5% of the interannual variability in the MOC (after the Ekman component has been removed). Dense anomalies to the south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge are also shown to precede the overturning variations by 4?C6?years, and provide a second predictor. With the inclusion of this second predictor the resulting regression model explains 82.8% of the total variance of the MOC. This final bivariate model is also tested during large rapid decadal overturning events. The sign of the rapid change is always well represented by the bivariate model, but the magnitude is usually underestimated, suggesting that other processes are also important for these large rapid decadal changes in the MOC.     

Differential kinetics and temperature dependence of abiotic and biotic processes controlling the environmental fate of TNT in simulated marine systems

This work seeks to understand how the balance of abiotic and biotic kinetic processes in sediments control the residual concentration of TNT in marine systems after release from ocean-dumped source. Kinetics of TNT disappearance were followed using marine sediments at different temperatures and under both biotic and presumably abiotic conditions (through sodium azide addition). Sediments exhibiting the highest rate of TNT disappearance under biotic conditions also exhibited the highest sorption affinity for TNT under abiotic conditions. Significant temperature dependence in the abiotic processes was observed in the diffusion coefficient of TNT and not sediment sorption affinity. At higher temperature, kinetics of biotic processes outpaced abiotic processes, but at low temperature, kinetics of abiotic processes were much more significant. We concluded that the differential influence of temperature on the kinetics of abiotic and biotic processes could provide distinguishing predictions for the potential residual concentration of TNT contamination in marine-sediment systems.     

Middle to late Holocene initiation of the annual flood pulse in Tonle Sap Lake,Cambodia

Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia, possesses one of the most productive inland fisheries in the world and is a vital natural resource for the country. The lake is connected to the Mekong River via the Tonle Sap River. Flow in the Tonle Sap River reverses seasonally, with water exiting the lake in the dry season and entering the lake during the summer monsoon. This flood pulse drives the lake’s biological productivity. We used Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes and elemental concentrations in lake sediment cores to track changes in the provenance of deposits in Tonle Sap Lake. We sought to determine when the lake first began to receive water and sediment input via the Mekong River, which initiated flood pulse processes. The transition from a non-pulsing lake to the Mekong-connected system is marked by shifts to values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ε_Nd, and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb that are characteristic of Mekong River sediments. In addition, magnetic susceptibility increased and sediment elemental composition changed. Elemental (P) measures point to enhanced phosphorus loading and C/N and isotope ratios of bulk organic matter indicate a shift to greater relative contribution of organic material from aquatic versus terrestrial environments, coinciding with the initiation of flood pulse processes. On the basis of radiocarbon dating in two cores, we estimate the initiation of the annual flood pulse occurred between ~4,450 and 3,910 cal year BP.     

Effects of an Acute Hypoxic Event on Microplankton Community Structure in a Coastal Harbor of Southern California

Fish mortality and hypoxic events occur in many coastal and inland systems and may result from natural or anthropogenically mediated processes. The effects of consequent changes in water biogeochemistry have been investigated for communities of benthic invertebrates and pelagic metazoans. The responses of micro-plankton assemblages, however, have remained largely unstudied. The northern basin of King Harbor, a small embayment within Santa Monica Bay, CA, USA, suffered a massive fish kill in March 2011 as a consequence of acute hypoxia. Dissolved oxygen concentrations < 0.1 ml?l^?1 were measured in the northern basin of the harbor for several days following the mortality event, and a strong spatial gradient of oxygen was observed from the northern basin to waters outside the harbor. The microplankton community within King Harbor differed significantly from a diatom-dominated community present in neighboring Santa Monica Bay. The latter region appeared unaffected by physicochemical changes, induced by the fish kill, that were observed within the harbor. A trophic shift was observed throughout King Harbor from a photoautotrophic-dominated assemblage to one of heterotrophic forms, with relative abundances of bacterivorous ciliates increasing by more than 80 % in the most impacted part of the harbor. Significant changes in community structure were observed together with dramatically reduced photosynthetic yield of the remaining phytoplankton, indicating severe physiological stress during the extreme hypoxia.     

Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990 s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature(SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), annual hottest day temperature(TXx), and annual warmest night temperature(TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days(SU) and tropical nights(TR).Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/ sea ice extent(SIE),anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol(AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964–93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes,although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990 s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA(through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere–land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.