Generating probabilistic estimates of hydrological response for Irish catchments using a weather generator and probabilistic climate change scenarios

In accounting for uncertainties in future simulations of hydrological response of a catchment, two approaches have come to the fore: deterministic scenario‐based approaches and stochastic probabilistic approaches. As scenario‐based approaches result in a wide range of outcomes, the role of probabilistic‐based estimates of climate change impacts for policy formulation has been increasingly advocated by researchers and policy makers. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on seasonal river flows by propagating daily climate time series, derived from probabilistic‐based climate scenarios using a weather generator (WGEN), through a set of conceptual hydrological models. Probabilistic scenarios are generated using two different techniques. The first technique used probabilistic climate scenarios developed from statistically downscaled scenarios for Ireland, hereafter called SDprob. The second technique used output from 17 global climate models (GCMs), all of which participated in CMIP3, to generate change factors (hereafter called CF). Outputs from both the SDprob and the CF approach were then used in combination with WGEN to generate daily climate scenarios for use in the hydrological models. The range of simulated flow derived with the CF method is in general larger than those estimated with the SDprob method in winter and vice versa because of the strong seasonality in the precipitation signal for the 17 GCMs. Despite this, the simulated probability density function of seasonal mean streamflow estimated with both methods is similar. This indicates the usefulness of the SDprob or probabilistic approach derived from regional scenarios compared with the CF method that relies on sampling a diversity of response from the GCMs. Irrespective of technique used, the probability density functions of seasonal mean flow produced for four selected basins is wide indicating considerable modelling uncertainties. Such a finding has important implications for developing adaptation strategies at the catchment level in Ireland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of hillslope soils: The geomorphic theater and the geochemical play

How and how fast do hillslope soils form as the landscape’s morphology changes over time? Here results are shown from an ongoing study that simultaneously examines the morphologic and geochemical evolution of soil mantled hillslopes that have been exposed to distinctively different denudation history. In Northern Sierra Nevada, California, the authors are investigating a tributary basin to the Middle Fork Feather River. A major incision signal from the river is well marked in a knickpoint within the tributary basin which stretches from its mouth to the Feather River at an elevation of ～700 m to the plateau at an elevation of ～1500 m. Hillslopes are significantly steeper below the knickpoint. The area’s total denudation rates are currently being constrained using cosmogenic radio nuclides, but a previous study suggested an order of magnitude difference in total denudation rates below and above the knickpoint. When compared with topographic attributes calculated from LIDAR data, physical erosion rates can be modeled as a linear function of ridge top curvature. Surprisingly, over the wide range of total denudation rates, soil thicknesses do not vary significantly until a threshold point where soil mantled landscapes abruptly shift to bedrock dominated landscapes. Bioturbation by tree falls appear to buffer soil thickness over the wide range of physical soil erosion rates. From three hillslopes with different physical erosion rates, the concentrations of Zr, which were considered conserved during dissolution and leaching, were determined and used as a proxy for the degree of mass losses via chemical denudation. There is a general trend that colluvial soils along the hillslopes with lower physical erosion rates are enriched in fine size fractions, Zr, and pedogenic crystalline Fe oxides. Likewise, the saprolites show greater degrees of chemical denudation at the sites above the knickpoint, presumably because of the saprolites’ longer turnover time in the slowly eroding landscapes. In the two steep hillslopes below the knickpoint, no significant or systematic topgraphic trends were found for soil geochemistry. However, soils show increasing Zr enrichment in the downslope direction in the hillslope above the knickpoint, which suggests a critical denudation rate beyond which soils’ turnover time is too short to develop a geochemical catena. As detailed CRN-based soil production rates and catchment scale denudation rates are acquired, the data will be combined with a mass balance model to calculate the rates of chemical denudation and weathering in soils and saprolites along the denudation gradient.     

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.     

Spectral properties and geologic processes on Eros from combined NEAR NIS and MSI data sets

Abstract— From April 24 to May 14, 2000, the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Shoemaker mission's near infrared spectrometer (NIS) obtained its highest resolution data of 433 Eros. High signal‐to‐noise ratio NIS reflectance spectra cover a wavelength range of 800–2400 nm, with footprint sizes from 213 times 427 m to 394 times 788 m. This paper describes improvement in instrument calibration by remediation of internally scattered light; derivation of a “pseudo channel” for NIS at 754 nm using Multispectral Imager (MSI) Eros approach maps at 951 and 754 nm; synthesis of a 3127‐spectrum high‐resolution data set with the improved calibration and expanded wavelength coverage; and investigation of global and localized spectral variation with respect to mineralogy, composition, and space weathering of Eros, comparing the findings with previous analyses. Scattered light removal reduces the “red” slope of Eros spectra, though not to the level seen by telescopic observations. The pseudo channel completes sampling of Eros' 1 micron (Band I) absorption feature, enabling direct comparison of NIS data with other asteroid and meteorite spectra without additional scaling or correction. Following scattered light removal and wavelength range extension, the spectral parameters of average Eros plot well inside the S(IV) field of Gaffey et al. (1993) and are consistent with the L6 chondrite meteorite fields of Gaffey and Gilbert (1998). Although Eros shows no evidence of mineralogical heterogeneity, modest spectral variations correlate with morphologically and geographically distinct areas of the asteroid. Eros bright‐to‐dark spectral ratios are largely consistent with laboratory “space weathering” experiment results and modeling of space weathering effects. Eros brightness variation unaccompanied by significant spectral variation departs from “lunar‐type”—where band depths, slopes, and albedoes all correlate—and “Ida‐type”—where significant spectral variation is unaccompanied by corresponding brightness variation. The brightest areas on Eros—steep crater walls—have lesser spectral slope and deeper Band I, consistent with exposure of “fresher,” less space weathered materials. Bright crater slope materials have opx/(opx + olv) of 0.24–0.29 and may be more representative of the subsurface mineralogy than “average” Eros, which is probably affected by space weathering. The floors of the large craters Psyche and Himeros have lower albedo and contain the most degraded or altered looking materials. NIS spectra retain a “red” spectral slope at greater than 2 microns. The recalibrated and expanded NIS spectra show better agreements with mixing models based on space weathering of chondritic mixtures.     

Mid-Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte on oceanic island Mauritius provides a window into the ecosystem of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus)

Although the recent history of human colonisation and impact on Mauritius is well documented, virtually no records of the pre-human native ecosystem exist, making it difficult to assess the magnitude of the changes brought about by human settlement. Here, we describe a 4000-year-old fossil bed at Mare aux Songes (MAS) in south-eastern Mauritius that contains both macrofossils (vertebrate fauna, gastropods, insects and flora) and microfossils (diatoms, pollen, spores and phytoliths). With >250 bone fragments/m² and comprising 50% of all known extinct and extant vertebrate species (n_s = 44) of Mauritius, MAS may constitute the first Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte identified on an oceanic volcanic island. Fossil remains are dominated by extinct giant tortoises Cylindraspis spp. (63%), passerines (～10%), small bats (7.8%) and dodo Raphus cucullatus (7.1%). Twelve radiocarbon ages [four of them duplicates] from bones and other material suggest that accumulation of fossils took place within several centuries. An exceptional combination of abiotic conditions led to preservation of bones, bone collagen, plant tissue and microfossils. Although bone collagen is well preserved, DNA from dodo and other Mauritian vertebrates has proved difficult. Our analysis suggests that from ca 4000 years ago (4 ka), rising sea levels created a freshwater lake at MAS, generating an oasis in an otherwise dry environment which attracted a diverse vertebrate fauna. Subsequent aridification in the south-west Indian Ocean region may have increased carcass accumulation during droughts, contributing to the exceptionally high fossil concentration. The abundance of floral and faunal remains in this Lagerstätte offers a unique opportunity to reconstruct a pre-human ecosystem on an oceanic island, providing a key foundation for assessing the vulnerability of island ecosystems to human impact.     

The Late Pleistocene distribution of vicuñas (Vicugna vicugna) and the “extinction” of the gracile llama (“Lama gracilis”): New molecular data

We present the results of a palaeogenetic analysis of two Late Pleistocene camelids originating in southern Chile. Our analysis of two mitochondrial DNA fragments (control region and cytochrome b gene) reveals that these specimens do not belong to an extinct taxon, but rather to extant vicuña (Vicugna vicugna), whose modern distribution is restricted to the extreme elevations of the Andes, more than 3500 km to the north of where these specimens originated. Our results also suggest fossil specimens from Patagonia that are currently assigned to the extinct taxon Lama gracilis, may actually belong to V. vicugna, implying a continuous distribution of the latter from the southern tip of South America to the Andes during the Final Pleistocene. The haplotypes of both specimens are not present in modern populations, suggesting a loss of genetic diversity concomitant with the contraction of the vicuña geographical distribution during the Final Pleistocene or early Holocene.     

Racing climate change: Collaboration and conflict in California's global climate change policy arena

Media accounts routinely refer to California's Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, as “landmark” climate change legislation. On its surface, this label is an accurate reflection of the state's forward-thinking stance across many environmental issues including pesticides, toxic substances, solid waste, and air quality. For all its promise, however, AB 32 can also be considered a low point in the landscape of conflict between state environmental regulators and California's environmental justice movement. While the legislation included several provisions to address the procedural and distributive dimensions of environmental justice, the implementation of AB 32 has been marked by heated conflict. The most intense conflicts over AB 32 revolve around the primacy of market mechanisms such as “cap and trade.” This article examines the drivers and the manifestations of these dynamics of collaboration and conflict between environmental justice advocates and state regulators, and pays particular attention to the scalar and racialized quality of the neoliberal discourse. The contentiousness of climate change politics in California offers scholars and practitioners around the world a cautionary tale of how the best intentions for integrating environmental justice principles into climate change policy do not necessarily translate into implementation and how underlying racialized fractures can upend collaboration between state and social movement actors.     

Sediment fingerprinting as an environmental forensics tool explaining cyanobacteria blooms in lakes

Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) blooms in water bodies present serious public health issues with attendant economic and ecological impacts. Llyn Tegid (Lake Bala) is an important conservation and amenity asset within Snowdonia National Park, Wales which since the mid-1990s has experienced multiple toxic cyanobacteria blooms threatening the ecology and tourism-dependent local economy. Multiple working hypotheses explain the emergence of this problem, including climate change, land management linked to increased nutrient flux, hydromorphological alterations or changing trophic structure - any of which may operate individually or cumulatively to impair lake function. This paper reports the findings of a sediment fingerprinting study using dated lake cores to explore the linkages between catchment and lake management practices and the emergence of the algal blooms problem. Since 1900 AD lake bed sedimentation rates have varied from 0.06 to 1.07 g cm⁻² yr⁻¹, with a pronounced acceleration since the early 1980s. Geochemical analysis revealed increases in the concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), calcium and heavy metals such as zinc and lead consistent with eutrophication and a rising pollution burden, particularly since the late 1970s. An uncertainty-inclusive sediment fingerprinting approach was used to apportion the relative fluxes from the major catchment land cover types of improved pasture, rough grazing, forestry and channel banks. This showed improved pasture and channel banks are the dominant diffuse sources of sediment in the catchment, though forestry sources were important historically. Conversion of rough grazing to improved grassland, coupled with intensified land management and year-round livestock grazing, is concluded to provide the principal source of rising TP levels. Lake Habitat Survey and particle size analysis of lake cores demonstrate the hydromorphological impact of the River Dee Regulation Scheme, which controls water level and periodically diverts flow into Llyn Tegid from the adjacent Afon Tryweryn catchment. This hydromorphological impact has also been most pronounced since the late 1970s. It is concluded that an integrated approach combining land management to reduce agricultural runoff allied to improved water level regulation enabling recovery of littoral macrophytes offers the greatest chance halting the on-going cyanobacteria issue in Llyn Tegid.     

Molecular biogeochemistry of sulfate reduction, methanogenesis and the anaerobic oxidation of methane at Gulf of Mexico cold seeps

The anaerobic oxidation of methane in aquatic environments is a globally significant sink for a potent greenhouse gas. Significant gaps remain in our understanding of the anaerobic oxidation of methane because data describing the distribution and abundance of putative anaerobic methanotrophs in relation to rates and patterns of anaerobic oxidation of methane activity are rare. An integrated biogeochemical, molecular ecological and organic geochemical approach was used to elucidate interactions between the anaerobic oxidation of methane, methanogenesis, and sulfate reduction in sediments from two cold seep habitats (one brine site, the other a gas hydrate site) along the continental slope in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The results indicate decoupling of sulfate reduction from anaerobic oxidation of methane and the contemporaneous occurrence of methane production and consumption at both sites. Phylogenetic and organic geochemical evidence indicate that microbial groups previously suggested to be involved in anaerobic oxidation of methane coupled to sulfate reduction were present and active. The distribution and isotopic composition of lipid biomarkers correlated with microbial distributions, although concrete assignment of microbial function based on biomarker profiles was complicated given the observed overlap of competing microbial processes. Contemporaneous activity of anaerobic oxidation of methane and bicarbonate-based methanogenesis, the distribution of methane-oxidizing microorganisms, and lipid biomarker data suggest that the same microorganisms may be involved in both processes.