Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

Variability in habitat use by young-of-the-year winter flounder,<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudopleuronectes americanus</Emphasis>, in three northeastern U.S. estuaries

We compared distribution and abundance by habitat for age-0, young-of-the-year (YOY) winter flounder,Pseudopleuronectes americanus, in three estuaries (Hammonasset River, Navesink River, and Great Bay-Little Egg Harbor) in the northeastern United States to better define essential fish habitat (EFH). Two replicates of five representative habitats were sampled in most estuaries: eelgrass (Zostera marina), unvegetated areas adjacent to eelgrass, macroalgae, (primarilyUlva lactuca), unvegetated areas adjacent to macroalgae, and tidal marsh creeks. Fish were sampled every two weeks, May through October 1995 and 1996, with a beam-trawl (1-m width, 3-mm mesh net). Abundance of YOY winter flounder was highest in the Navesink River estuary and similar between years, but was significantly lower and differed between years in the Great Bay-Little Egg Harbor and Hammonasset River estuaries. Annual temperature differences appear to influence estuary use by YOY. In the years and estuaries studied, where habitat-related differences in abundance were significant, YOY were found in higher densities in unvegetated areas adjacent to eelgrass. The exception was in the Hammonasset River in 1995 when densities were higher in eelgrass. We conclude that the type of habitat most important to YOY winter flounder varies among estuaries and as a result, care should be taken in defining EFH, based only on limited spatial and temporal sampling.     

Geophysical response of slackwater and sandy terrace deposits near Savanna, Northwestern Illinois

Low-permeability clayey and silty river terrace deposits are an important component in protecting underlying aquifers from contamination by agrochemicals and other contaminants. Such deposits also record deglaciation dynamics, meltwater drainage and local climatic variations. In this study, conducted over Mississippi River terraces near Savanna, Illinois, clayey slackwater terrace deposits and sandy terrace deposits are examined using resistivity soundings, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles and direct-push conductivity logs. The clayey terrace deposits are characterized by low resistivity (10–35 ohm-m) and slow GPR wave velocity (0.07 m/ns), whereas non-clayey terrace deposits exhibit much higher resistivity (169–1,762 ohm-m) and faster GPR wave velocities (0.15 m/ns). Sandy and clayey terrace deposits may thus be differentiated and mapped on the basis of their geophysical response. Models based on resistivity soundings provide reasonably accurate estimates of the thickness of clayey slackwater deposits, but fail to reveal thin sands embedded in the clayey deposits. In some cases, the full thickness of the slackwater deposits was also not revealed. GPR profiles, however, imaged these embedded shallow sands and possibly imaged deeper sands below the base of the slackwater deposits, giving more accurate estimates of thickness. GPR also accurately resolved the thickness and character of sandy terrace deposits. Direct-push conductivity logs provide both accurate estimates of the thickness of clayey slackwater terrace deposits and a means of identifying thin embedded sands. In summary, resistivity soundings image these deposits at the lowest resolution with one-dimensional models, whereas GPR provides much higher resolution showing detailed layering within the upper several meters. Direct-push conductivity logs provide the highest resolution, but are invasive and only reveal stratigraphy at one location.     

Near-infrared spectroscopy of primitive asteroid families

We compare 13 near-infrared (0.8-2.4 μm) spectra of two low albedo C complex outer-belt asteroid families: Themis and Veritas. The disruption ages of these two families lie at opposite extremes: 2.5 ± 1.0 Gyr and 8.7 ± 1.7 Myr, respectively. We found striking differences between the two families, which show a range of spectral shapes and slopes. The seven Themis family members (older surfaces) have “red” (positive) slopes in the 1.6-2.4 μm region; in contrast, the six Veritas members (younger surfaces) have significantly “flatter” slopes at these same wavelengths. Moreover, the two families are characterized by different concavity at shorter (1.0-1.5 μm) wavelengths with the Themis group being consistently flat or concave up (smile) and the Veritas group being consistently concave down (frown). Each family contains a broad range of diameters, suggesting our results are not due to comparisons of asteroids of different sizes. The statistically significant clustering of the two spectral groups could be explained by one of the following three possibilities or a combination of them: (1) space weathering effects, (2) differences in original composition, or (3) differences in thermal history perhaps as a result of the difference in parent body sizes. As a result of our analyses, we propose a new method to quantify broad and shallow structures in the spectra of primitive asteroids. We found reasonable matches between the observed asteroids and individual carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Because these meteoritic fits represent fresh surfaces, space weathering is neither necessary nor ruled out as an explanation of spectral differences between families. The six Veritas family near-infrared (NIR) spectra represent the first NIR analysis of this family, thus significantly increasing our understanding of this family over these wavelengths.     

Skills in Professional Geography: An Assessment of Workforce Needs and Expectations

This study compares the skills of professional geographers and the needs of employer organizations across major sectors of the U.S. workforce. Following a series of focus groups, two surveys were developed to explore: (1) the extent to which specific skills were performed by geographers in different professional positions, and (2) the value of and anticipated demand for those skills from the perspective of employers. Overall, respondents in the focus groups and both surveys emphasized the need for general skills ranging from time management and writing ability to information management and computer literacy. Employers also cited many geographic skills as being vital for enhancing the work of professionals in all types of organizations. Competency in field methods, the ability to work across disciplinary boundaries, and spatial thinking were three skill areas that characterized the work of geographic professionals irrespective of specialty.     

A Review of “Appalachian Aspirations: The Geography of Urbanization and Development in the Upper Tennessee River Valley, 1865–1900”

This article tests the explanatory power and interactions among five alternative explanations of environmental knowledge: (1) local information availability, (2) neighborhood characteristics, (3) environmental attitudes, (4) personal empowerment, and (5) information seeking. Using random forest and conditional inference trees, the article analyzes survey responses and finds that attitudes about personal empowerment and frequent information seeking are the strongest predictors of knowledge. The study offers random forest and conditional inference trees as statistical tools for complex data sets and studies that test hypotheses generated from multiple theories. We discuss the influence of knowledge differences over inclusive sustainability discussions.