Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.     

Assessment of wind-forcing impact on a global wind-wave model using the TOPEX altimeter

The study presents assessment of an operational wave model (Wavewatch III), focusing upon the model sensitivity to wind-forcing products. Four wind fields are used to drive the model, including the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and three other products that assimilate various satellite wind measurements having high spatial resolution, including the QuikSCAT scatterometer. Three wave field statistics: significant wave height, mean zero-crossing wave period, and mean square slope are compared with collocated TOPEX altimeter derivatives to gauge the relative skill of differing wind-forced model runs, as well as to demonstrate an extended use of the altimeter beyond simply supplying wave height for wave model validation and assimilation. Results suggest that model output is critically sensitive to choice of the wind field product. Higher spatial resolution in the wind fields does lead to improved agreement for the higher-order wave statistics.     

Reconciling late faulting over the whole Alpine belt: from structural analysis to geochronological constrains

The significance of late-stage fracturing in the European Alps in a large geodynamic context is reappraised by studying brittle deformations over the entire belt. In the internal Western Alps, paleostress datasets display a major occurrence of orogen-parallel extension resulting in normal faulting and associated strike-slip mode. There the direction of subhorizontal extension rotates with the bending of the Alpine belt. In the Central Alps, paleostress tensors also indicate orogen-parallel extensional regimes, both in the Bergell area and the Lepontine Dome, where the brittle structures are associated with ductile structures related to the formation of large-scale upright folds that accommodate most of the collisional shortening due to the north-directed component of the movement of the South-Alpine indenter. This brittle deformation phase is of Miocene age and is coeval with the propagation of the Alpine front toward the external Alpine domains. In the Eastern Alps, brittle deformation of the Tauern Window displays an overwhelming occurrence of orogen-parallel normal faulting and associated strike-slip regimes again, which is inferred to be driven by lateral extrusion of the orogenic wedge toward the Pannonian basin, partly due to indentation on the Dolomites indenter. The major orogen-parallel extensional signal of the brittle Cenozoic deformations appears remarkably stable all over the internal Alps. Extensional brittle structures are part of a late phase of collisional deformation, during which the propagation of the Alpine front of the Western Alps and the northward movement of the Southern Alpine and the Dolomites indenters in the Central and Eastern Alps were accommodated by orogen-parallel extension in the inner zones, at the scale of the entire chain.     

A wave‐dominated,tide‐modulated model for the Lower Ordovician of the Anti‐Atlas,Morocco

Hybrid depositional systems are created by the interaction of two or more hydrodynamic processes that control facies distribution and their characteristics in terms of sedimentary structures and depositional geometry. The interaction of wave and tide both in the geological sedimentary record and modern environments has been rarely described in the literature. Mixed coastal environments are identified by the evidence of wave and tidal structures and are well identified in nearshore environments, while their recognition in lower shoreface–offshore environments lacks direct information from modern settings. Detailed field analyses of 10 stratigraphic sections of the Lower Ordovician succession (Fezouata and Zini formations; Anti‐Atlas, Morocco) have allowed the definition of 14 facies, all grouped in four facies zones belonging to a storm‐dominated, wave‐dominated sedimentary siliciclastic system characterized by symmetrical ripples of various scales. Peculiar sedimentary organization and sedimentary structures are observed: (i) cyclical changes in size of sedimentary structures under fair‐weather or storm‐weather conditions; (ii) decimetre‐deep erosional surfaces in swaley cross‐stratifications; (iii) deep internal erosion within storm deposits; (iv) discontinuous sandstone layers in most depositional environments, and common deposition of sandstones with a limited lateral extension, interpreted to indicate that deposition at all scales (metric to kilometric) is discontinuous; (v) combined flow–oscillation ripples showing aggrading–prograding internal structures alternating with purely aggrading wave ripples; and (vi) foreshore environments characterized by alternating phases of deposition of parallel stratifications, small‐scale and large‐scale ripples and tens of metres‐wide reactivation surfaces. These characteristics of deposition suggest that wave intensity during storm‐weather or fair‐weather conditions was continuously modulated by another controlling factor of the sedimentation: the tide. However, tidal structures are not recognized, because they were probably not preserved due to dominant action of storms and waves. A model of deposition is provided for this wave‐dominated, tide‐modulated sedimentary system recording proximal offshore to intertidal–foreshore environments, but lacking diagnostic tidal structures.     

Where do fishmeal and fish oil products come from? An analysis of the conversion ratios in the global fishmeal industry

As a result of the stagnation of commercial fishery landings, aquaculture activities are expected to increase over the next decades to match the growing demand for marine protein. Overall, it is expected that the aquaculture sector could reduce some of the fishing pressure applied to wild stocks. However, this development is likely to be limited by the availability of key aquaculture inputs, specifically fishmeal and fish oil products (FMFOP). Aquaculture provided 60 % (fish meal) and 80 % (fish oil) of the world total consumption of these products in 2007. FMFOP are generally derived from small pelagic fish species, but can also be derived from other sources. Identifying the origin of FMFOP is crucial to understanding the effects of this new pressure on marine social-ecological systems. Two factors are of particular importance in the reduction sector transforming wild fish into fishmeal or fish oil: the two “conversion ratios” (i.e. the ratio between the quantity of wild fish harvested and the resulting quantity of FMFOP, and the ratio between the quantity of FMFOP and aquaculture production), and the type of raw material used by the reduction sector. Based on trade and production databases from FAO and the International Fishmeal and Fish oil Organisation (IFFO), this paper proposes an approach to identify the origin of FMFOP. It shows that whereas different countries use different pelagic resources to produce FMFOP, other countries use non-pelagic sources, and some countries use pelagic resources for human consumption.     

Climate variability of southern Chile since the Last Glacial Maximum: a continuous sedimentological record from Lago Puyehue (40°S)

This paper presents a multi-proxy climate record of an 11 m long core collected in Lago Puyehue (southern Chile, 40°S) and extending back to 18,000 cal yr BP. The multi-proxy analyses include sedimentology, mineralogy, grain size, geochemistry, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and radiocarbon dating. Results demonstrate that sediment grain size is positively correlated with the biogenic sediment content and can be used as a proxy for lake paleoproductivity. On the other hand, the magnetic susceptibility signal is correlated with the aluminium and titanium concentrations and can be used as a proxy for the terrigenous supply. Temporal variations of sediment composition evidence that, since the Last Glacial Maximum, the Chilean Lake District was characterized by three abrupt climate changes superimposed on a long-term climate evolution. These rapid climate changes are: (1) an abrupt warming at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum at 17,300 cal yr BP; (2) a 13,100–12,300 cal yr BP cold event, ending rapidly and interpreted as the local counterpart of the Younger Dryas cold period, and (3) a 3,400–2,900 cal yr BP climatic instability synchronous with a period of low solar activity. The timing of the 13,100–12,300 cold event is compared with similar records in both hemispheres and demonstrates that this southern hemisphere climate change precedes the northern hemisphere Younger Dryas cold period by 500 to 1,000 years. This is the third in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

Schooling behaviour and environmental forcing in relation to anchoveta distribution: An analysis across multiple spatial scales

The Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) supports the highest worldwide fishery landings and varies in space and time over many scales. Here we present the first comprehensive sub-mesocale study of anchoveta distribution in relation to the environment. During November 2004, we conducted a behavioural ecology survey off central Peru and used a series of observational and sampling tools including SST and CO₂ sensors, Niskin bottles, CTD probes, zooplankton sampling, stomach content analysis, echo-sounder, multibeam sonar, and bird observations. The sub-mesoscale survey areas were chosen from mesoscale acoustic surveys. A routine coast-wide (2000 km) acoustic survey performed just after the sub-mesoscale surveys, provided information at an even larger population scale. The availability of nearly concurrent sub-mesoscale, mesoscale and coast-wide information on anchoveta distribution allowed for a unique multi-scale synthesis. At the sub-mesoscale (100s m to km) physical processes (internal waves and frontogenesis) concentrated plankton into patches and determined anchoveta spatial distribution. At the mesoscale (10s km) location relative to the zone of active upwelling (and age of the upwelled water) and the depth of the oxycline had strong impacts on the anchoveta. Finally, over 100s km the size of the productive area, as defined by the upwelled cold coastal waters, was the determining factor. We propose a conceptual view of the relative importance of social behaviour and environmental (biotic and abiotic) processes on the spatial distribution of anchoveta. Our ecological space has two y-axis; one based on self-organization (social behaviour), and the other based on the environmental processes. At scales from the individual (10s cm), to the nucleus (m), social behaviour (e.g. the need to school) drives spatial organization. At scales larger than the school, environmental forces are the main driver of fish distribution. The conceptual ecosystem models presented in this paper may provide the final links needed to develop accurate forecasts of the spatial distribution of anchoveta over multiple scales.     

Description of a very dense meteorite collection area in western Atacama: Insight into the long‐term composition of the meteorite flux to Earth

We describe the geological, morphological, and climatic settings of two new meteorite collections from Atacama (Chile). The “El Médano collection” was recovered by systematic on‐foot search in El Médano and Caleta el Cobre dense collection areas and is composed of 213 meteorites before pairing, 142 after pairing. The “private collection” has been recovered by car by three private hunters and consists of 213 meteorites. Similar to other hot desert finds, and contrary to the falls and Antarctica finds, both collections show an overabundance of H chondrites. A recovery density can be calculated only for the El Médano collection and gives 251 and 168 meteorites larger than 10 g km^?2, before and after pairing, respectively. It is by far the densest collection area described in hot deserts. The Atacama Desert is known to have been hyperarid for a long period of time and, based on cosmic‐ray exposure ages on the order of 1–10 Ma, to have been stable over a period of time of several million years. Such a high meteorite concentration might be explained invoking either a yet unclear concentration mechanism (possibly related to downslope creeping) or a previously underestimated meteorite flux in previous studies or an average terrestrial age over 2 Myr. This last hypothesis is supported by the high weathering grade of meteorites and by the common terrestrial fragmentation (with fragments scattered over a few meters) of recovered meteorites.     

Marine-derived C calibration and activity record for the past 50,000 years updated from the Cariaco Basin

An expanded Cariaco Basin ¹⁴C chronology is tied to ²³⁰Th-dated Hulu Cave speleothem records in order to provide detailed marine-based ¹⁴C calibration for the past 50,000 years. The revised, high-resolution Cariaco ¹⁴C calibration record agrees well with data from ²³⁰Th-dated fossil corals back to 33 ka, with continued agreement despite increased scatter back to 50 ka, suggesting that the record provides accurate calibration back to the limits of radiocarbon dating. The calibration data document highly elevated Δ¹⁴C during the Glacial period. Carbon cycle box model simulations show that the majority of observed Δ¹⁴C change can be explained by increased ¹⁴C production. However, from 45 to 15 ka, Δ¹⁴C remains anomalously high, indicating that the distribution of radiocarbon between surface and deep ocean reservoirs was different than it is today. Additional observations of the magnitude, spatial extent and timing of deep ocean Δ¹⁴C shifts are critical for a complete understanding of observed Glacial Δ¹⁴C variability.