Evaluation of uncertainties in the CRCM-simulated North American climate

This work is a first step in the analysis of uncertainty sources in the RCM-simulated climate over North America. Three main sets of sensitivity studies were carried out: the first estimates the magnitude of internal variability, which is needed to evaluate the significance of changes in the simulated climate induced by any model modification. The second is devoted to the role of CRCM configuration as a source of uncertainty, in particular the sensitivity to nesting technique, domain size, and driving reanalysis. The third study aims to assess the relative importance of the previously estimated sensitivities by performing two additional sensitivity experiments: one, in which the reanalysis driving data is replaced by data generated by the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2), and another, in which a different CRCM version is used. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in initial conditions, is much smaller than the sensitivity to any other source. Results also show that levels of uncertainty originating from liberty of choices in the definition of configuration parameters are comparable among themselves and are smaller than those due to the choice of CGCM or CRCM version used. These results suggest that uncertainty originated by the CRCM configuration latitude (freedom of choice among domain sizes, nesting techniques and reanalysis dataset), although important, does not seem to be a major obstacle to climate downscaling. Finally, with the aim of evaluating the combined effect of the different uncertainties, the ensemble spread is estimated for a subset of the analysed simulations. Results show that downscaled surface temperature is in general more uncertain in the northern regions, while precipitation is more uncertain in the central and eastern US.     

Expression of Cassini's third law for Callisto, and theory of its rotation

The rotation of the main natural satellites of the Solar System is widely assumed to be synchronous, because this corresponds to an equilibrium state. In the case of the Moon, 3 laws have been formulated by Cassini, assuming a spin-orbit resonance and a 1:1 nodal resonance. The recent gravitational data collected by the spacecrafts Galileo (in the jovian system) and Cassini (in the saturnian system) allows us to study the rotation of other natural satellites, and to check the universality of Cassini's laws. This paper deals with the rotation of the Galilean satellites of Jupiter J-4 Callisto. In this study we use both analytical (like Lie transforms) and numerical methods (numerical detection of chaos, numerical integration, frequency analysis) to first check the reliability of Cassini Laws for Callisto, and then to give a first theory of its rotation, Callisto's being considered as a rigid body. We first show that the Third Cassini Law (i.e. the nodal resonance), is not satisfied in every reference frame, in particular in the most natural one (i.e. the J2000 jovian equator). The difference of the nodes presents a chaotic-like behavior, that we prove to be just a geometrical illusion. Moreover, we give a mathematical condition ruling the choice of an inertial reference frame in which the Third Cassini Law is fulfilled. Secondly, we give a theory of Callisto's rotation in the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF). We highlight a small motion (i.e. <200 m) of its rotation axis about its body figure, a 11.86-yr periodicity in Callisto's length-of-day, and the proximity of a resonance that forces 182-yr librations in Callisto's obliquity.     

On the uniqueness of image reconstruction from the amplitude of radiointerferometric response

The theorem is proved that presents a rigorous foundation of the possibility of unique reconstruction of the radio-image of the sourceI(r) from the modulus of visibility function |V(b|=|Î(r)|. This results gives a rigorous explanation of the efficiency of different numerical methods of the image reconstruction using only amplitude data which are widespread in radio-astronomy.     

The singularities in quantum cosmology

A cosmological model is proposed, in which quantum effects lead to infinitely many terms nonlinear in curvature, and these terms lead to the following conclusion: the physical singularity (i.e., a state with infinite matter densityp) occurs int10^–43 s, when the curvature is finite. An attempt is made to give physical interpretation of this model from the viewpoint of the foam-like model of space-time.     

Long-term changes of the surface air temperature in relation to solar inertial motion

The inertial motion of the Sun around the barycentre, or centre of mass, of the Solar System has been employed as the base in searching for possible influence of the Solar System as a whole on climatic processes, especially on the changes in surface air temperature. A basic cycle of about 180–200 years and its higher harmonics up to 30 years have been found in surface air temperature of central Europe since 1753, established from 13 continuous instrumental time series. These periods correspond to the periods of solar inertial motion. In the first half of the 19th century, when the solar motion was chaotic, this temperature was about 0.75°C lower than that in the 20th (1940–50) and the 18th (1760–70) centuries. The mentioned decades of long-term temperature maxima coincide with the central decades of the ordered (trefoil) motion of the Sun. The temperatures in coastal Europe have been found to have slightly different properties, especially on a long-time scale. The periods of 35–45 years are significantly pronounced in the coastal Europe temperature spectrum. The chaotic motion of the Sun in the next decades could decrease both the solar forcing and global surface air temperature.This research was performed with support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, Grant No. 205/93/0417, I. Charvátová: Prognosis of climate development in central Europe.     

The impact of morphostructural development on the extension of the North European Ice at the main European watershed in the Moravian Gate (Czech Republic)

The territory of the Czech Republic has been investigated by geographers for many decades. The Moravian Gate situated in the eastern part of the Czech Republic, became a place of high human concentration due to its geographical location. Geomorphological research in the Czech republic has reached an impressive level in the field of both the morphostructure of the whole territory and the extent of glaciation. The article treats the relationship between the morphostructure and the extent of glaciation in a geographically complicated region. Both of these have been investigated separately. The synthesis of all results brings new knowledge and suggestions for future research in the region close to the main European watershed. The paper is completed on the basis of the author's research including the complex geomorphological analysis, especially morphostructural and morfosculptural analysis, the investigation of the features and genesis of georelief, the digital elevation model of studied area, the detailed geomorphological mapping in 1:10.000 scale and the compilation of denudation chronology.     

Geomorphological research of large-scale slope instability at Machu Picchu, Peru

A multidisciplinary approach has been adopted to study the slope movements and landscape evolution at the archaeological site of Machu Picchu and its immediate surroundings. The basic event in the paleogeomorphological evolution of the area was the large-scale slope movement, which destroyed the originally higher ridge between Mt. Machupicchu and Mt. Huaynapicchu. Within remnants of that primary deformation, several younger generations of slope movements occurred. The laboratory analyses of granitoids revealed highly-strained zones on the slopes of Mt. Machupicchu, which strongly affect the largest slope deformation. The borders of the largest slope deformation are structurally predisposed by the existence of fault zones. The majority of various types of slope movements on the so-called Front Slope (E facing) and Back Slope (W facing) are influenced by the alignment between topography and joints. Along with slope movements, fluvial erosion and tectonic disturbance of the rocks have been affecting the evolution of the landscape. A monitoring network for dilatometric and extensometric measurements was used to detect the present-day activity of rock displacements within the archaeological site. In addition to standard mapping of surface hydrogeological phenomena, eleven express slug tests were conducted to verify the infiltration potential of precipitation. The results of these surveys indicate that recent large-scale slope movement as suggested by some previous studies is doubtful, and the detected movements can be explained by individual movements of rock blocks or several other mechanisms including sinking of archaeological structures, subsurface erosion and annual changes in the water content of the soils.     

First results of DORIS data analysis at Geodetic Observatory Pecný

In a cooperation between the Astronomical Institute, University of Bern (AIUB), the Geodetic Observatory Pecný (GOPE), and the Institut Géographique National (IGN), DORIS data analysis capabilities were implemented into a development version of the Bernese GPS software. The DORIS Doppler observables are reformulated such that they are similar to global navigation satellite system (GNSS) carrier-phase observations, allowing the use of the same observation models and algorithms as for GNSS carrier-phase data analysis with only minor software modifications. As such, the same algorithms may be used to process DORIS carrier-phase observations. First results from the analysis of 3 weeks of DORIS data (September 2004, five DORIS-equipped satellites) at GOPE are promising and are presented here. They include the comparison of station coordinates with coordinate estimates derived by the Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale/Collecte Localisation Satellites analysis centre (LCA) and the Institut Géographique National/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (IGN/JPL), and the comparison of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) with the International Earth Rotation and Reference Frames Service (IERS) C04 model. The modified Bernese results are of a slightly lower, but comparable, quality than corresponding solutions routinely computed within the IDS (International DORIS Service). The weekly coordinate repeatability RMS is of the order of 2–3 cm for each 3D station coordinate. Comparison with corresponding estimates of station coordinates from current IDS analysis centers demonstrates similar precision. Daily pole component estimates show a mean difference from IERS-C04 of 0.6  mas in X _p and  ? 0.5  mas in Y _p and a RMS of 0.8  mas in X _p and 0.9  mas in Y _p (mean removed). An automatic analysis procedure is under development at GOPE, and routine DORIS data processing will be implemented in the near future.     

Grain size dependency in the occurrence of sand waves

Sandy shallow seas, like the North Sea, are very dynamic. Several morphological features are present on the bed, from small ripples to sand waves and large tidal sandbanks. The larger patterns induce significant depth variations that have an impact on human activities taking place in this area. Therefore, it is important to know where these large-scale features occur, what their natural behaviour is and how they interact with human activities. Here, we extend earlier research that compares the results of an idealized model of large-scale seabed patterns with data of seabed patterns in the North Sea. The idealized model is extended with a grain size dependency. The adaptations lead to more accurate predictions of the occurrence of large-scale bed forms in the North Sea. Therefore, grain size dependency and, in particular, critical shear stress are important to explain the occurrence of sand waves and sandbanks in the North Sea. Responsible Editor: Alejandro Souza     

Presentation of RISK-UE Project

This paper is a presentation of an European project called RISK-UE, entitled: “An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns”. It gives the origin, the objectives and the organisation of the project, together with the content of the different workpackages comprising methodological aspects: different features of European town, seismic hazard, urban system exposure, vulnerability of current, historical and monumental buildings, vulnerability of lifelines and essential facilities, seismic risk scenario, with an application to the seven following cities: Barcelona, Bitola, Bucharest, Catania, Nice, Sofia and Thessaloniki. These studies were realized in close relation with the decisionmakers of these cities, in order that they implement Risk Management Plans and Plans of Action to effectively reduce seismic risk.