Expected changes in agroclimatic conditions in Central Europe

During the past few decades, the basic assumption of agroclimatic zoning, i.e., that agroclimatic conditions remain relatively stable, has been shattered by ongoing climate change. The first aim of this study was to develop a tool that would allow for effective analysis of various agroclimatic indicators and their dynamics under climate change conditions for a particular region. The results of this effort were summarized in the AgriClim software package, which provides users with a wide range of parameters essential for the evaluation of climate-related stress factors in agricultural crop production. The software was then tested over an area of 114,000 km² in Central Europe. We have found that by 2020, the combination of increased air temperature and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation will lead to a prolonged growing season and significant shifts in the agroclimatic zones in Central Europe; in particular, the areas that are currently most productive will be reduced and replaced by warmer but drier conditions in the same time the higher elevations will most likely experience improvement in their agroclimatic conditions. This positive effect might be short-lived, as by 2050, even these areas might experience much drier conditions than observed currently. Both the rate and the scale of the shift are amazing as by 2020 (assuming upper range of the climate change projections) only 20?C38% of agriculture land in the evaluated region will remain in the same agroclimatic and by 2050 it might be less than 2%. On the other hand farmers will be able to take advantage of an earlier start to the growing season, at least in the lowland areas, as the proportion of days suitable for sowing increases. As all of these changes might occur within less than four decades, these issues could pose serious adaptation challenges for farmers and governmental policies. The presented results also suggest that the rate of change might be so rapid that the concept of static agroclimatic zoning itself might lose relevance due to perpetual change.     

Conditions for the arrest of a vertical propagating dyke

Magma ascent towards the Earth’s surface occurs through dyke propagation in the vast majority of cases. We investigate two purely mechanical effects unrelated to cooling or solidification that lead to the arrest of propagation, so that no eruption occurs. The first is that the input of magma from the source is not maintained continuously, such that a fixed volume of magma is released. Laboratory experiments show that, in this case, the dyke stops at a finite distance from the source. This behaviour is specific to the fracturing process in 3-D. We derive a relationship for the minimum magma volume required for an eruption as a function of magma buoyancy and source depth. When large magma volumes are available, eruption may also be prevented by a thick low density layer in the upper crust. Numerical studies of dyke propagation show that the dyke continues to rise even though it is negatively buoyant. Magma accumulates in a swollen nose region at the interface between the low density layer and the dense basement. Magma overpressure is largest at this interface and increases with increasing penetration into the upper layer. It may become large enough to induce horizontal fractures in the dyke walls and lateral intrusion of a sill, which prevents eruption. This requires that the thickness of the low density layer exceeds a threshold value that depends on the density contrast between magma and host rock. If the magma volume is smaller than a threshold value, neither sill intrusion nor eruption are possible and magma gets stored in a horizontal blade-shaped dyke straddling the interface. Scaling laws for variations of ascent rate and for the minimum magma volume allow diagnosis of a failed eruption.     

Measurement and modeling of mercury complexation by dissolved organic matter isolates from freshwater and effluents of a major wastewater treatment plant

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) samples were obtained from a low-density urbanized area located upstream of Paris (along the Marne River, France) and from the treated effluents at the Paris main wastewater treatment plant. These samples were then fractionated according to their hydrophobicity. DOM fractions consisted of nanomolar to sub-micromolar fresh organic substances with extremely strong Hg-complexing ligands. The conditional stability constants (i.e. ; pH ∼ 6.8, I_NaCl = 0.5 M, T = 25 °C) of the Hg-DOM complexes formed were greater than 10²⁴ M⁻¹, for the reaction Hg²⁺ + L = HgL (with L as ligand). For upstream of Paris, thermodynamic calculations indicated that the vast majority of Hg-DOM was associated with hydrophobic DOM. In contrast, in the Paris main wastewater treatment plant effluents, Hg-DOM was mainly bound to hydrophilic DOM. Simple dilution calculations highlighted that due to the large DOM loading of urban discharges, the hydrophilic urban DOM ligands may commonly dominate Hg-DOM speciation in the downstream Seine River, except under extreme dilution (i.e. high water episodes or floods).     

Macrophysiology of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic Ocean

Copepods represent the major part of the dry weight of the mesozooplankton in pelagic ecosystems and therefore have a central role in the secondary production of the North Atlantic Ocean. The calanoid copepod species Calanus finmarchicus is the main large copepod in subarctic waters of the North Atlantic, dominating the dry weight of the mesozooplankton in regions such as the northern North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The objective of this work was to investigate the relationships between both the fundamental and realised niches of C. finmarchicus in order to better understand the future influence of global climate change on the abundance, the spatial distribution and the phenology of this key-structural species. Based on standardised Principal Component Analyses (PCAs), a macroecological approach was applied to determine factors affecting the spatial distribution of C. finmarchicus and to characterise its realised niche. Second, an ecophysiological model was used to calculate the Potential Egg Production Rate (PEPR) of C. finmarchicus and the centre of its fundamental niche. Relationships between the two niches were then investigated by correlation analysis. We found a close relationship between the fundamental and realised niches of C. finmarchicus at spatial, monthly and decadal scales. While the species is at the centre of its niche in the subarctic gyre, our joint macroecological and macrophysiological analyses show that it is at the edge of its niche in the North Sea, making the species in this region more vulnerable to temperature changes.     

Physical and mechanical properties of the repaired sandstone ashlars in the facing masonry of the Charles Bridge in Prague (Czech Republic) and an analytical study for the causes of its rapid decay

The facing masonry of the Gothic Charles Bridge in Prague (Czech Republic) has been largely altered during nineteenth and twentieth century repairs, due to extensive replacements of weathered sandstone ashlar blocks. Natural stone varieties used during these replacements show different responses to a variety of weathering processes which lead to their rapid decay. The decay of the newer stone has been accelerated by use of Portland cement paste as the binding and fill material, instead of the original hydraulic lime-based and cocciopesto-type mortars. The hardened Portland cement paste makes an almost impermeable barrier, with permeability three to four orders of magnitude lower, compared to the original mortars and natural stone. The low permeability of this new alien material results in the accumulation of water-soluble salts (specifically nitrates, but also sulphates and chlorides) in the facing masonry ashlars, with their crystallisation coming in the form of both sub- and efflorescence, as well as the development of various decay forms (blistering, granular disintegration and/or scaling and flaking). The source of the water-soluble salts can be traced back to previous restoration attempts. These included chemical cleaning (black crust removal) by nitric acid, ammonium hydroxide (‘ammonium water’), or ammonium hydrogen carbonate, all which can be linked to high nitrate content in the efflorescence.     

The strength of biogenic sand reefs: Visco-elastic behaviour of cement secreted by the tube building polychaete Sabellaria alveolata, Linnaeus, 1767

Mechanical properties of the biomineralised cement from tube-building marine worms are poorly known. Secreted from an organ connected to the polychaetes specialised glands, the cement glues sand grains and calcareous shell fragments of a given size and, on a larger scale, ensures the resistance of the reef to waves. In this study, three kinds of mechanical tests were performed with worm tubes to establish the nature of the cement behaviour. Results obtained show that cement behaves like a visco-elastic material. This property allows the tubes to dissipate the mechanical energy from the waves to which they are subject and to reduce the mechanical stress transmitted inside the tubes to the polychaetes. Comparison of “fresh” and “dry” cements highlights that the visco-elastic behaviour of the cement is maintained after five years. The viscosity of the cement is therefore not related to moisture but to its chemical composition. More generally, these results offer a better understanding of the role of cement on worm reefs strength and their persistence in the geological record.     

Discussion of “Measurements of sheet flow transport in acceleration-skewed oscillatory flow and comparison with practical formulations” by D.A. van der A,T. O'Donoghue and J.S. Ribberink

The authors present a very interesting data set on the acceleration effects on sheet flow transport and compare their experimental results with different transport practical formulas. However, they omit some previous work by Camenen and Larson (2007) that we would like to bring to the authors' attention. A more extensive discussion on some aspects of the acceleration effects is also lacking in their paper and, thus, additional material is provided here.     

AVIATR—Aerial Vehicle for In-situ and Airborne Titan Reconnaissance

We describe a mission concept for a stand-alone Titan airplane mission: Aerial Vehicle for In-situ and Airborne Titan Reconnaissance (AVIATR). With independent delivery and direct-to-Earth communications, AVIATR could contribute to Titan science either alone or as part of a sustained Titan Exploration Program. As a focused mission, AVIATR as we have envisioned it would concentrate on the science that an airplane can do best: exploration of Titan??s global diversity. We focus on surface geology/hydrology and lower-atmospheric structure and dynamics. With a carefully chosen set of seven instruments??2 near-IR cameras, 1 near-IR spectrometer, a RADAR altimeter, an atmospheric structure suite, a haze sensor, and a raindrop detector??AVIATR could accomplish a significant subset of the scientific objectives of the aerial element of flagship studies. The AVIATR spacecraft stack is composed of a Space Vehicle (SV) for cruise, an Entry Vehicle (EV) for entry and descent, and the Air Vehicle (AV) to fly in Titan??s atmosphere. Using an Earth-Jupiter gravity assist trajectory delivers the spacecraft to Titan in 7.5 years, after which the AVIATR AV would operate for a 1-Earth-year nominal mission. We propose a novel ??gravity battery?? climb-then-glide strategy to store energy for optimal use during telecommunications sessions. We would optimize our science by using the flexibility of the airplane platform, generating context data and stereo pairs by flying and banking the AV instead of using gimbaled cameras. AVIATR would climb up to 14?km altitude and descend down to 3.5?km altitude once per Earth day, allowing for repeated atmospheric structure and wind measurements all over the globe. An initial Team-X run at JPL priced the AVIATR mission at FY10 $715M based on the rules stipulated in the recent Discovery announcement of opportunity. Hence we find that a standalone Titan airplane mission can achieve important science building on Cassini??s discoveries and can likely do so within a New Frontiers budget.     

侏罗纪末至白垩纪非海相介形类生物地层学:回顾与展望

以非海相介形类为依据而建立的侏罗纪末至白垩纪的生物地层学,尤其是欧洲所谓"Purbeck-Wealden层段"(提塘阶顶部至巴列姆阶/阿普特阶底部)和全球同期沉积层的生物地层学建立已久,但这一生物地层学存有很多问题与局限性。本文对中生代晚期(聚焦于早白垩世)的非海相介形类生物地层学的基本原理、历史、目前进展、存在问题和前景进行了综述。因为介形类的繁殖、扩散与成种机制已有比较成熟的研究,所以介形类的生物地层学的应用潜力被认识已久。然而,全球不同地区中生代晚期的非海相介形类众多的研究积累已构成了一个丰富但常常混乱和矛盾的文献库。这些问题不仅存在于介形类的分类鉴定中,也见于关于古环境和系统发育的解释中。虽然地区性的盆地内的介形类生物地层学研究已产生了好结果,并可能能够用于局部地区的高精度对比。但是在进行地区间(盆地间至全球)的对比时,其实用性广遭怀疑。在过去的二十年间,许多学者采用了将今论古的古生物学研究方法,努力修订和更新中生代晚期的非海相介形类的生物地层学与古环境意义,从而促进了地区间生物地层学研究和对比的发展。古生物学家认识到,对于许多非海相介形类动物来讲,它们的分布和扩散不仅仅局限于单个的水系或较小的地理区域,而是和现生的非海相介形类一样,晚侏罗世至白垩纪的非海相介形类动物和它们的卵可被较大的动物或风长距离搬运,跨越迁移的屏障,进行扩散。鉴于以上事实,地区间的对比必须涉及两大内容:分类学的应用与古环境背景。缺乏适用于地区—全球的稳定和一致的分类学系统是进行正确对比的重要障碍。由于大量地方性分类命名、地方性特有动物的假设、与壳体特征相关的分类和生态型认识的混乱,以及对种内变异尺度的统一认识的缺乏,导致了对生物分异度的过高或过低的估量。非海相白垩纪介形类的地层记录受到诸多因素的影响:分类单元的演化与灭绝、扩散事件、当地的环境变化和地区性至全球的气候变迁。在生物地层学的应用中,我们可以通过不同手段去把握同时代的Cytheroidea,特别是Cypridoidea中具重要地层意义的Cypridea属及其亲近者(即CypridoideaMartin,1940)的分类单元的形态变异度。解释种内变异时需要格外谨慎。区分生物自生(内因)导致的变异(遗传的和形态的变异)和环境(外因)导致的变异(生态表型)是一大难题。比较保守的分类学观念(分类单元很少,但变异极大(分类单元中包含了多种生态表型))有助于不同古环境间的(生物地层)对比。另一方法是运用随着时间的古环境变化及其对介形类组合的组成的影响来进行(生物地层)对比。古生物工作者已在利用受环境控制的周期性介形类组合变化建立对比关系方面进行了大量有意义的尝试,但这些工作仍处在争议中。建立全球生物地层学方法,建立统一而持久的分类概念这一目标可以达到,但不可能在短期内实现。用现代的思想(概念)理解和研究非海相介形类的古生物学和古生物地理学及新资料将有助于修订工作的进展。尽管我们对中生代的非海相介形类的演化和分布的认识还很不全面,但目前我们已取得了可喜的进展。盆地间至大陆间的对比是否可行,早已不是问题。目前和未来的指导原则无疑是发展以介形类为基础,并与其他的年代地层学和地质年代学资料及方案相结合的从地区至全球范围的地层对比系统。因为我们正在迈向一个非海相晚中生代介形类生物地层学的重新解释和应用的新时代,我们必须承认我们还有许多东西需要学习。