On the estimation of systematic error in regression-based predictions of climate sensitivity

An extension of a regression-based methodology for constraining climate forecasts using a multi-thousand member ensemble of perturbed climate models is presented, using the multi-model CMIP-3 ensemble to estimate the systematic model uncertainty in the prediction, with the caveat that systematic biases common to all models are not accounted for. It is shown that previous methodologies for estimating the systematic uncertainty in predictions of climate sensitivity are dependent on arbitrary choices relating to ensemble sampling strategy. Using a constrained regression approach, a multivariate predictor may be derived based upon the mean climatic state of each ensemble member, but components of this predictor are excluded if they cannot be validated within the CMIP-3 ensemble. It is found that the application of the CMIP-3 constraint serves to decrease the upper bound of likelihood for climate sensitivity when compared with previous studies, with 10th and 90th percentiles of probability at 1.5 K and 4.3 K respectively.     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Modeling fluid injection in fractures with a reservoir simulator coupled to a boundary element method

We describe an algorithm for modeling saturated fractures in a poroelastic domain in which the reservoir simulator is coupled with a boundary element method. A fixed stress splitting is used on the underlying fractured Biot system to iteratively couple fluid and solid mechanics systems. The fluid system consists of Darcy’s law in the reservoir and is computed with a multipoint flux mixed finite element method, and a Reynolds’ lubrication equation in the fracture solved with a mimetic finite difference method. The mechanics system consists of linear elasticity in the reservoir and is computed with a continuous Galerkin method, and linear elasticity in the fracture is solved with a weakly singular symmetric Galerkin boundary element method. This algorithm is able to compute both unknown fracture width and unknown fluid leakage rate. An interesting numerical example is presented with an injection well inside of a circular fracture.     

The Chemical Nature of Phosphorus in Subtropical Lake Sediments

The phosphorus (P) composition of sediment profiles in three subtropical lakes of contrasting trophic state in Florida, USA, was determined by sequential fractionation and solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy. Sediment from Lake Annie, an oligo-mesotrophic sinkhole with moderately acidic sediment (pH 5.4; loss on ignition 58 %), contained higher total P concentrations than sediment from eutrophic Lake Okeechobee (pH 7.7, loss on ignition 36 %) and hyper-eutrophic Lake Apopka (pH 7.5, loss on ignition 69 %). The chemical nature of sediment P varied markedly among the three lakes, suggesting the predominance of different diagenetic processes. Lake Okeechobee sediment was dominated by inorganic P, indicating the dominance of abiotic reactions; Lake Annie sediment contained abundant organic P throughout the sediment profile, indicating the importance of organic P stabilization at acidic pH; Lake Apopka contained almost half of its sediment P in microbial biomass, indicating the importance of biotic processes in regulating P dynamics. Solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy of NaOH–EDTA extracts revealed that organic P occurred mainly as phosphomonoesters in all lakes. However, sediment from Lake Apopka also contained abundant phosphodiesters and was the only lake to contain detectable concentrations of polyphosphate, perhaps due to a combination of alternating redox conditions and high concentrations of inorganic phosphate and organic carbon. Organic P concentrations determined by sequential fractionation and solution ³¹P NMR spectroscopy were similar for all lakes when microbial P was included in values for sequential fractionation. We conclude that the chemical nature of sediment P varies markedly depending on trophic state and can provide important information on the dominant processes controlling P cycling in subtropical lakes.     

Electrical-hydraulic conductivity model for a weathered-fractured aquifer system of Olbanita,Lower Baringo Basin,Kenya Rift

Groundwater yield in the Kenya Rift is highly unsustainable owing to geological variability. In this study, field hydraulic characterization was performed by using geo-electric approaches. The relations between electrical-hydraulic (eh) conductivities were modeled hypothetically and calibrated empirically. Correlations were based on the stoch-astic models and field-scale hydraulic parameters were contingent on pore-level parameters. By considering variation in pore-size distributions over eh conduction interval, the relations were scaled-up for use at aquifer-level. Material-level electrical conductivities were determined by using Vertical Electrical Survey and hydraulic conductivities by analyzing aquifer tests of eight boreholes in the Olbanita aquifer located in Kenya rift. VES datasets were inverted by using the computer code IP2Win. The main result is that ln T=0.537 (ln Fa)+3.695; the positive gradient indicating eh conduction through poresurface networks and a proxy of weathered and clayey materials. An inverse (1/F-K) correlation is observed. Hydraulic parameters determined using such approaches may possibly contri-bute significantly towards sustainable yield management and planning of groundwater resources.     

Observations of the temperature and polarization anisotropies with Boomerang 2003

The Boomerang experiment completed its final long duration balloon (LDB) flight over Antarctica in January 2003. The focal plane was upgraded to accommodate four sets of 145 GHz polarization sensitive bolometers (PSBs), identical to those to be flown on the Planck HFI instrument. Approximately, 195 hours of science observations were obtained during this flight, including 75 hours distributed over 1.84% of the sky and an additional 120 hours concentrated on a region covering 0.22% of the sky. We derive the angular power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (cmb) temperature and polarization anisotropies from these data. The temperature anisotropies are detected with high signal to noise on angular scales ranging from several degrees to 10 arcminutes. The curl-free (EE) component is detected at 4.8σ, and a two-sigma upper limit on the curl (BB) component of 8.6 μK² is obtained on scales corresponding to 0.5°. Both the temperature and polarization anisotropies are found to be consistent with a concordance ΛCDM cosmology that is seeded by adiabatic density perturbations. In addition to the cmb observations, Boomerang03 surveyed a 300 square degree region centered on the Galactic plane. These observations represent the first light for polarization sensitive bolometers, which are currently operational in two South-Pole based polarimeters, as well as Planck HFI, at frequencies ranging from 100 to 350 GHz (3 mm to 850 μm).     

Assessment of the distribution of sponge chips in the sediment of East Pacific Ocean reefs

Sponges are one of the principal agents of bioerosion and sediment production in coral reefs. They generate small carbonate chips that can be found in the sediments, and we investigated whether these could provide a means for assessment of bioerosion applicable to reef monitoring. We tested this hypothesis on samples from 12 Mexican coral reefs distributed along the Pacific coast, where boring sponges were particularly abundant, and quantified the amount of chips in samples of superficial sediment in three grain‐size fractions: fine (<44 μm), medium (44–210 μm) and coarse (>210 μm). The grain‐size distribution varied among reefs, with the majority of the sediment of most reefs being composed of coarse sands, and the medium and fine fractions dominating only at La Entrega and Playa Blanca. All the reefs presented clear evidence of bioerosion by sponges, with the characteristic chips present in the sediment, although at most sites the percentage of chips was very low (from 1% to 3% of the total sediment). Only at La Entrega and Playa Blanca did they constitute a significant fraction of the total sediment (18% and 16%, respectively). While not statistically significant, there was an interesting trend between sponge chips versus sponge abundance that suggests that quantification of the chips in the sediment could be used as a proxy for sponge erosion of the entire community, which cannot be estimated in by laboratory experiments. However, while this methodology could provide an integrated approach to monitor sponge bioerosion, more studies are necessary due to the influence of environmental factors on the transport and deposition of these chips.     

Photometry of Galaxies in the Field of the Galaxy Cluster aBELL 1781

A method for determing the brightness and diameter of galaxies in a large field on Schmidt plates by automatic scanning with a microphotometer is described and applied to the ABELL cluster A 1781. The accuracy of this method is tested. The overall errors (r.m.s.) of brightness and diameter are 0.16 mag and 0″.44. The cluster A 1781 has been prooved to be a very poor cluster of about 10 members up to m_B ≈ 19^m.5.     

Exploring the past through lynchet landscapes in the Vosges Mountains and the Lorraine Plateau (France)

Lynchets are ridges formed by erosion and sediment accumulation downstream of agricultural plots and offer valuable insights into past agricultural activity. These microtopographies cover vast areas and serve as indicators of historical changes in land use. As a result, their ubiquity across Europe makes them particularly interesting. In this study, we propose a geoarchaeological approach to analyze six lynchets, four in the Vosges Mountains and two on the Lorraine Plateau (France). The lynchets can be considered soil archives with no stratigraphic organization or chronological sequence from bottom to top, making it difficult to determine the age of the lynchets and identify changes in land use over time. To this end, we propose the analysis of historical and geo-historical archives combined with the “pedosedimentary” archives of lynchets through charcoal identification and dating combined with near-infrared spectroscopy to determine the age, vegetation, and past land use changes associated with lynchet landscapes. By combining these multiple data sources, we are better able to show the chronological development of these ancient agricultural systems and uncover valuable information on landscape history. Charcoal dating suggests a higher frequency of fires from the Middle Ages. The dating aligns with the regional dynamics of anthropogenic fires, indicating a potential use of fire for cultural purposes. We also demonstrate the difficulty of extrapolating the dating of a lynchet to the entire lynchet system. Our results highlight the difficulties of interpreting the formation and dating of lynchets and the lynchet system on the sole basis of charcoal analysis. However, we highlight the value of applying pedoanthracology to lynchets to determine the dynamics of land use change in former fields.