Weather regimes over Senegal during the summer monsoon season using self-organizing maps and hierarchical ascendant classification. Part I: synoptic time scale

The aim of this work is to define over the period 1979?C2002 the main synoptic weather regimes relevant for understanding the daily variability of rainfall during the summer monsoon season over Senegal. ??Pure?? synoptic weather regimes are defined by removing the influence of seasonal and interannual time scales, in order to highlight the day by day variability of the atmospheric circulation. The Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) approach, a clustering methodology based on non-linear artificial neural network, is combined with a Hierarchical Ascendant Classification to compute these regimes. Nine weather regimes are identified using the mean sea level pressure and 850?hPa wind field as variables, and gathered into three classes. Two of these weather regimes represent the classical 3?C5-day African easterly waves with a mean wavelength of about 3,000?km. Three others are characterized by a modulation of the semi-permanent trough located along the western coast of West Africa and might be interpreted in terms of the 6?C9-day easterly waves. The last four weather regimes are characterized by a more or less strong north?Csouth dipole of circulation. They can be interpreted as a northward/southward displacement of the Saharan Heat Low for two of them, and a filling/deepening of this depression for the other two. The circulation patterns of all these nine weather regimes are very consistent with the associated anomaly patterns of precipitable water, mid-troposphere vertical velocity, outgoing longwave radiation, and finally rainfall. Rainfall distribution is also highlighted over the southwestern area of Senegal.     

Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes��a perturbed land surface parameter experiment

Uncertainties in the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are quantified in a perturbed land surface parameter experiment. The ensemble of 108 members is constructed by systematically perturbing five poorly constrained land surface parameters of global climate model individually and in all possible combinations. The land surface parameters induce small uncertainties at global scale, substantial uncertainties at regional and seasonal scale and very large uncertainties in the tails of the distribution, the climate extremes. Climate sensitivity varies across the ensemble mainly due to the perturbation of the snow albedo parameterization, which controls the snow albedo feedback strength. The uncertainty range in the global response is small relative to perturbed physics experiments focusing on atmospheric parameters. However, land surface parameters are revealed to control the response not only of the mean but also of the variability of temperature. Major uncertainties are identified in the response of climate extremes to a doubling of CO₂. During winter the response both of temperature mean and daily variability relates to fractional snow cover. Cold extremes over high latitudes warm disproportionately in ensemble members with strong snow albedo feedback and large snow cover reduction. Reduced snow cover leads to more winter warming and stronger variability decrease. As a result uncertainties in mean and variability response line up, with some members showing weak and others very strong warming of the cold tail of the distribution, depending on the snow albedo parametrization. The uncertainty across the ensemble regionally exceeds the CMIP3 multi-model range. Regarding summer hot extremes, the uncertainties are larger than for mean summer warming but smaller than in multi-model experiments. The summer precipitation response to a doubling of CO₂ is not robust over many regions. Land surface parameter perturbations and natural variability alter the sign of the response even over subtropical regions.     

Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905?C1917) and drought (1932?C1939, 1948?C1957, 1998?C2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900?C2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1?C2), we are able to reproduce the 1948?C1957 drought and 1905?C1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1?C2?C3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998?C2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932?C1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932?C1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998?C2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932?C1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.     

The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?

In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty.Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from −50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near −11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, −18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, −13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near −15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation.The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region.     

Increased plastic litter cover affects the foraging activity of the sandy intertidal gastropod Nassarius pullus

This study analyzed the foraging behavior of the gastropod Nassarius pullus on garbage-impacted sandy shores of Talim Bay, Batangas, Philippines. The effect of different levels of plastic garbage cover on foraging efficiency was investigated. Controlled in situ baiting experiments were conducted to quantify aspects of foraging behavior as affected by the levels of plastic litter cover in the foraging area. The results of the study indicated that the gastropod’s efficiency in locating and in moving towards a food item generally decreased as the level of plastic cover increased. Prolonged food searching time and increased self-burial in sand were highly correlated with increased plastic cover. The accuracy of orientation towards the actual position of the bait decreased significantly when the amount of plastic cover increased to 50%. These results are consistent with the significant decreases in the abundance of the gastropod observed during periods of deposition of large amounts of plastic and other debris on the shore.     

Historical channel narrowing along the Rio Grande near Albuquerque,New Mexico in response to peak discharge reductions and engineering: magnitude and uncertainty of change from air photo measurements

Over the last century, geomorphic processes along the Middle Rio Grande have been altered by flood control and bank stabilization projects, intensified land and water use, and climate change. In response to potential risks to infrastructure and ecological integrity, recent (1985–2008) adjustment was investigated and historic (1918–1985) changes in Rio Grande channel planform through the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area were reviewed, especially in relation to changes in annual peak discharge and river engineering measures. Using a GIS, channel characteristics were digitized from georeferenced photographs and analyzed with particular attention to quantifying potential measurement error and its propagation. Error associated with average channel widths and channel area ranged between 4 and 13%. For smaller polygons, e.g. islands, error was higher (11 to 40% for width and >200% for area) because width error is large relative to polygon width. Between 1918 and 1963, average channel widths decreased 8 m/yr, from 516 ± 67 m to 176 ± 7 m, mostly due to decreasing peak flows and the implementation of flood control and other engineering measures. From 1985 to 2008, widths decreased 0·7 m/yr, from 176 ± 23 m to 146 ± 5 m, accompanied by an increase in vegetated island area which largely coincided with low flow periods. Narrowing was concentrated at tributary inputs and in the upstream part of the reach, where bedload trapping by Cochiti Dam has caused degradation. Bank protection structures and dense vegetation limit bank erosion in the reach, but erosion is significant where expanding islands, incision, and increased meandering force water against banks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid Holocene coastal change revealed by high-resolution micropaleontological analysis, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA

Foraminiferal analyses of 404 contiguous samples, supported by diatom, lithologic, geochronologic and seismic data, reveal both rapid and gradual Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in an 8.21-m vibracore taken from southern Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. Data record initial flooding of a latest Pleistocene river drainage and the formation of an estuary 9000 yr ago. Estuarine conditions were punctuated by two intervals of marine influence from approximately 4100 to 3700 and 1150 to 500 cal yr BP. Foraminiferal assemblages in the muddy sand facies that accumulated during these intervals contain many well-preserved benthic foraminiferal species, which occur today in open marine settings as deep as the mid shelf, and significant numbers of well-preserved planktonic foraminifera, some typical of Gulf Stream waters. We postulate that these marine-influenced units resulted from temporary destruction of the southern Outer Banks barrier islands by hurricanes. The second increase in marine influence is coeval with increased rate of sea-level rise and a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. This high-resolution analysis demonstrates the range of environmental variability and the rapidity of coastal change that can result from the interplay of changing climate, sea level and geomorphology in an estuarine setting.     

Modeling of inundation dynamics on Banda Aceh,Indonesia during the great Sumatra tsunamis December 26, 2004

The tsunami inundation flows on Banda Aceh, Indonesia reached 5 km inland during the December 26, 2004, event and devastated most of the houses, buildings, and infrastructure along the coast and killed more than 167,000 people. The overland flows from the northwest coast and the west coast collided at Lampisang village approximately 3.7 km from Ulee Lheue (northwest coast) and 6.8 km from Lhok Nga (west coast) as reported by survivors. Inundation modeling based on the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations reproduces the inundation pattern and demonstrates a colliding of the overland flows. The model suggests that wave characteristics on the northwest coast of Banda Aceh were different from those on the waves that impacted upon the west coast. The areas, which experienced higher inundation levels, did not always experience greatest overland flow speeds, and the damage areas mostly coincide with the flow speed distribution rather than the runup and inundation depth.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010. During this period, 407 earthquakes and 85 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 19 events with M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2010 was below the average over the previous 35 years. The two most noteworthy earthquakes were the M_L 3.4 Barrhorn event near Sankt Niklaus (VS) and the M_L 3.0 event of Feldkirch, both of which produced shaking of intensity IV.     

Largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and striped mullet (Mugil cephalus) as vectors of contaminants to human consumers in northwest Florida

The health benefits of regular consumption of fish and seafood have been espoused for many years. However, fish are also a potential source of environmental contaminants that have well known adverse effects on human health. We investigated the consumption risks for largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides; n = 104) and striped mullet (Mugil cephalus; n = 170), two commonly harvested and consumed fish species inhabiting fresh and estuarine waters in northwest Florida. Skinless fillets were analyzed for total mercury, inorganic arsenic, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides. Contaminant levels were compared to screening values (SV) calculated using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommendations for establishing consumption advisories. Largemouth bass were found to contain high levels of total mercury at all sampling locations (0.37–0.89 ug/g) and one location exhibited elevated total PCBs (39.4 ng/g). All of the samples exceeded Florida fish consumption advisory trigger levels for total mercury and one location exceeded the U.S. EPA SV for total PCBs. As a result of the high mercury levels, the non-cancer health risks (hazard index–HI) for bass were above 1 for all locations. Striped mullet from several locations with known point sources contained elevated levels of PCBs (overall range 3.4–59.3 ng/g). However, total mercury levels in mullet were low. Eight of the 16 mullet sampling locations exceeded the U.S. EPA SV for total PCBs and two locations exceeded an HI of 1 due to elevated PCBs. Despite the elevated levels of total PCBs in some samples, only two locations exceeded the acceptable cancer risk range and therefore cancer health risks from consumption of bass and mullet were determined to be low at most sampling locations.