华北地区地震异常前兆信息场演化特征及其与地震关系的研究

在对地震异常前兆信息量先前研究的基础上,进一步给出了描述各种地震异常前兆信息量的普适性综合数学表达式.从大量震例资料入手,再次研究了地震异常延续有效性的问题,进而建立了地震异常持续有效时间与延续有效时间的数学关系式.收集整理了1980～1997年华北地区水化、形变、地磁、应力、水位、地电等371个观测项目、上百万个前兆观测数据,对每一观测项目逐一计算了它们的地震异常前兆信息量.研究了华北地区近20年的地震异常前兆信息场的演化特征及其与地震的关系,建立了华北地区Ms≥5地震的中短期综合预报指标体系,经R值评分检验,表明该地震综合预报指标体系在中短期地震预测中具有一定效果.     

Pits,rifts and slumps: the summit structure of Piton de la Fournaise

A clear model of structures and associated stress fields of a volcano can provide a framework in which to study and monitor activity. We propose a volcano-tectonic model for the dynamics of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean). The summit contains two main pit crater structures (Dolomieu and Bory), two active rift zones, and a slumping eastern sector, all of which contribute to the actual fracture system. Dolomieu has developed over 100 years by sudden large collapse events and subsequent smaller drops that include terrace formation. Small intra-pit collapse scars and eruptive fissures are located along the southern floor of Dolomieu. The western pit wall of Dolomieu has a superficial inward dipping normal fault boundary connected to a deeper ring fault system. Outside Dolomieu, an oval extension zone containing sub-parallel pit-related fractures extends to a maximum distance of 225 m from the pit. At the summit the main trend for eruptive fissures is N80°, normal to the north–south rift zone. The terraced structure of Dolomieu has been reproduced by analogue models with a roof to width ratio of approximately 1, suggesting an original magma chamber depth of about 1 km. Such a chamber may continue to act as a storage location today. The east flank has a convex–concave profile and is bounded by strike-slip fractures that define a gravity slump. This zone is bound to the north by strike-slip fractures that may delineate a shear zone. The southern reciprocal shear zone is probably marked by an alignment of large scoria cones and is hidden by recent aa lavas. The slump head intersects Dolomieu pit and may slide on a hydrothermally altered layer known to be located at a depth of around 300 m. Our model has the summit activity controlled by the pit crater collapse structure, not the rifts. The rifts become important on the mid-flanks of the cone, away from pit-related fractures. On the east flank the superficial structures are controlled by the slump. We suggest that during pit subsidence intra-pit eruptions may occur. During tumescence, however, the pit system may become blocked and a flank eruption is more likely. Intrusions along the rift may cause deformation that subsequently increases the slump’s potential to deform. Conversely, slumping may influence the east flank stress distribution and locally control intrusion direction. These predictions can be tested with monitoring data to validate the model and, eventually, improve monitoring.     

Pit crater structure and processes governing persistent activity at Masaya Volcano, Nicaragua

 Persistent activity at Masaya Volcano, Nicaragua, is characterised by cycles of intense degassing, lava lake development and pit crater formation. It provides a useful site to study the processes which govern such activity, because of its easy accessibility and relatively short cycles (years to decades). An understanding of the present activity is important because Masaya is visited by large numbers of tourists, is located close to major cities and has produced voluminous lavas, plinian eruptions and ignimbrites in the recent past. We provide structural and geophysical data that characterise the "normal" present state of activity. These indicate that the ongoing degassing phase (1993 to present) was not caused by fresh magma intrusion. It was associated with shallow density changes within the active Santiago pit crater. The activity appears to be associated predominantly with shallow changes in the pit crater structure. More hazardous activity will occur only if there are significant departures from the present gravity, deformation and seismic signatures. Received: 16 May 1997 / Accepted: 29 October 1997     

就张北地震谈谈地震监测预报中的几个技术性问题

１９９８年１月１０日河北省张北县发生６．２级地震,作为对这次地震的一次反思,就地震监测预报中的长、中、短临预报、地震速报、震害预测等各项工作中的技术问题、改进方向提出了一些具体意见,以供同行们参考。     

地震前兆信息量的研究：（一）地震异常延续有效性的研究

根据我国大陆５８个Ｍｓ≥５级地震的震列资料,详细地研究了地震异常延续有效时间与持续时间的相关关系,给出了由地震异常持续时间计算地震异常预测的有效时间（即地震异常延续有效时间的最优估值）的公式,经多种数理统计方法检验,证明这一公式是保信、可用的。这为进一步深入开发的震异常前兆信息量的研究奠定了基础,同时也为日常地震会商中常震确定地震异常延续有效性问题,提供了定量分析判定依据,因此本研究具有一定的实际     

On the relation between residual currents and the wind field in the German Bight

Summary The long-period part (T>25 h) of currents measured at close spacing in the German Bight in June 1968 is investigated. The north component of the bottom current is shown to be highly correlated with the east component of the wind in this area, the wind-generated changes of the mass-field giving rise to a quasi-geostrophic current near the bottom.This current responds without perceptible delay to the variations of wind fields with periods considerably longer than those of the seiches of the North Sea. The accelerations linked to such long periods are so small as to be negligable and the residual currents can be regarded as quasi-stationary.

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Über die Beziehung zwischen Reststrom und Windfeld in der Deutschen Bucht

Zusammenfassung Es werden engabständige Strommessungen in der Deutschen Bucht aus dem Juni 1968 in ihrem langperiodischen Teil (T>25 h) untersucht. Dabei ergibt sich, daß die Nordkomponente des Bodenstromes (v) stark korreliert mit der Ostkomponente des Windes (U) in diesem Gebiet. Die winderzeugten Veränderungen des Massenfeldes verursachen eine quasi-geostrophische Strömung am Boden.Diese Strömung reagiert ohne erkennbare Verzögerung auf solche Veränderungen des Windfeldes, die erheblich größere Perioden haben als die Eigenschwingungen der Nordsee. Die damit verbundenen Beschleunigungen sind sehr klein und so zu vernachlässigen; daher kann man die Restströmung auch als quasi-stationär ansehen.

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Sur la relation entre les courants résiduels et le champ du vent en baie Allemande

Résumé La partie à longue période (T>25 h) de courants measurés en des points rapprochés en baie Allemande en juin 1968 est étudiée. La composante Nord du courant de fond se révèle largement corrélée avec la composante Est du vent dans cette zone. Les modifications du champ de masse dues au vent donnent naissance à un courant quasi-géostrophique près du fond.Ce courant répond sans délai perceptible aux variations du champ du vent avec des périodes considérablement plus longues que celles des seiches de la mer du Nord. Les accélérations liées à de telles longues périodes sont si petites qu'elles peuvent être négligées et les courants peuvent être considérés comme quasi-stationnaires.

     

Alpine tectonics and diapiric structures in the Pre-Betic zone of southeast Spain

The Pre-Betic is the most northerly of the Alpine zones forming the Betic Cordilleras of southern Spain. It consists of strongly folded and faulted Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks, the oldest of which are ferruginous and gypsiferous Triassic mudstones, followed by a predominantly carbonate facies of Cretaceous, Palaeogene and Miocene age. Although this sequence is interrupted by a number of minor unconformities, the major structures were formed during the middle or late Miocene. The highly incompetent Triassic rocks are the most strongly deformed, and form diapiric intrusions discordant to regional structural trends in the younger rocks. The latter are essentially of two facies: massive competent limestones which are deformed by relatively simple folds of large wavelength, and highly incompetent marl-limestone interbeds with complex disharmonic folds and crush belts. Faults include low-angle and high-angle thrusts, gravity slides and wrench faults. The regional tectonic strike is ENE to NE, but the diapiric intrusions mostly follow WNW and N directions. These intrusions have pushed the younger rocks aside, the result being polyphase structures of several trends.Less intense post-Miocene tectonics are mostly associated with continued diapirism and have resulted in the folding and tilting of the late Miocene to Quaternary elastic sediments.