Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks provide the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi³ (167 km³) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. Testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.     

Influence of the Mississippi River on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudo-nitzschia</Emphasis> spp. Abundance and Toxicity in Louisiana Coastal Waters

The presence of domoic acid (DA) toxin from multiple species of Pseudo-nitzschia is a concern in the highly productive food webs of the northern Gulf of Mexico. We documented the Pseudo-nitzschia presence, abundance, blooms, and toxicity over three years along a transect ～100 km west of the Mississippi River Delta on the continental shelf. Pseudo-nitzschia were present throughout the year and occurred in high abundances (>10⁴ cells l^?1) in the early spring months during high Mississippi River (MSR) flow (～20,000 m³ s^?1) but were most abundant (>10⁶ cells l^?1) when MSR discharge was relatively lower among the spring months. A high particulate toxin production (maximum reaching 13 μg DA l^?1) was associated with the high cell abundances and exceeded, by an order of magnitude, prior reports of particulate DA concentrations in Louisiana coastal waters. Differences in Pseudo-nitzschia peak times and its toxicity were correlated mainly with the timing and magnitude of MSR discharge and changes in associated parameters such as nutrient stoichiometry and salinity. A negative relationship between high MSR discharge and Pseudo-nitzschia and particulate DA concentrations was documented. These riverine dynamics have the potential to influence DA contamination in pelagic and benthic food webs in the coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Visualising 30 Years of Population Density Change in Australia’s Major Capital Cities

ABSTRACT

This study uses a novel spatial approach to compare population density change across cities and over time. It examines spatio-temporal change in Australia’s five most populated capital cities from 1981 to 2011, and documents the established and emerging patterns of population distribution. The settlement patterns of Australian cities have changed substantially in the last 30 years. From the doughnut cities of the 1980s, programs of consolidation, renewal and densification have changed and concentrated population in our cities. Australian cities in the 1980s were characterised by sparsely populated, low density centres with growth concentrated to the suburban fringes. ‘Smart Growth’ and the ‘New Urbanism’ movements in the 1990s advocated higher dwelling density living and the inner cities re-emerged, inner areas were redeveloped, and the population distribution shifted towards increased inner city population densities. Policies aimed at re-populating the inner city dominated and the resultant changes are now visible in Australia’s five most populated capital cities. While this pattern has been reported in a number of studies, questions remain regarding the extent of these changes and how to analyse and visualise them across urban space. This paper reports on a spatial method which addresses the limitations of changing statistical boundaries to identify the changing patterns in Australian cities over time and space.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Petrogenesis of low-δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O quartz porphyry dykes,Koegel Fontein complex,South Africa

This paper investigates the origin of low-δ¹⁸O quartz porphyry dykes associated with the 144–133 Ma Koegel Fontein Igneous Complex, which was intruded during the initial phase of breakup of Africa and South America. The 25-km diameter Rietpoort Granite is the largest and youngest phase of activity, and is roofed by a 10-km diameter pendant of gneiss. Quartz porphyry (QP) dykes, up to 15 m in width, strike NW–SE across the complex. The QP dykes that intruded outside the granite have similar quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values (average 8.0‰, ± 0.7, n?=?33) to the granite (average 8.3?±?1.0, n?=?7). The QP dykes that intruded the roof pendant have quartz phenocrysts with more variable δ¹⁸O values (average 1.6‰, ± 2.1, n?=?55). In some cases quartz phenocrysts have δ¹⁸O values as low as ? 2.5‰. The variation in δ¹⁸O value within the quartz crystal population of individual dykes is small relative to the overall range, and core and rim material from individual quartz phenocrysts in three samples are identical within error. There is no evidence that quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values have been affected by fluid–rock interaction. Based on a ?_quartz?magma value of 0.6‰, magma δ¹⁸O values must have been as low as ? 3.1‰. Samples collected along the length of the two main QP dykes that traverse the roof pendant have quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values that range from +?1.1 to +?4.6‰, and ? 2.3 to +?5.6‰, respectively. These δ¹⁸O values correlate negatively (r = ? 0.96) with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, which can be explained by the event that lowered δ¹⁸O values of the source being older than the dykes. We suggest that the QP dykes were fed by magma produced by partial melting of gneiss, which had been variably altered at high temperature by ¹⁸O-depleted meteoric water during global glaciation at ~?550 Ma. The early melts had variable δ¹⁸O value but as melt pockets interconnected during melting, the δ¹⁸O values approached that of average gneiss. Variable quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values in the same dyke can be explained by vertical emplacement, at variable rates of ascent along the dyke. The lateral variation in quartz, and hence magma δ¹⁸O value at a particular point along a single dyke would depend on the rate of ascent of magma at that point along the dyke, and the ‘age’ of the particular magma batch.     

Crystal nucleation and growth produced by continuous decompression of Pinatubo magma

High-temperature decompression experiments demonstrate that crystal textures preserve a record of the style and rate of magmatic ascent. To reinforce this link, we performed a suite of isothermal decompression experiments using starting material from the climactic 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We decompressed experiments from 220 MPa to final, quench pressures of 75 or 30 MPa using continuous decompression rates of 100, 30, 10, 3, 1, and 0.3 MPa h^?1. Amphibole, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase crystallized during the experiments, with plagioclase microlites dominating the assemblage. Total microlite number densities range from 10^7.6±0.4 up to 10^8.2±0.2 cm^?3, with plagioclase accounting for up to 65% of the total number. Plagioclase microlite area increased systematically from 19?±?8 to 937?±?487 µm² with increasing experiment duration. Our textures provide time-integrated records of crystal kinetics. Average nucleation and areal growth rates of plagioclase are highest in the fastest decompressions (~?10^7.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 10.1?±?4.1 µm² h^?1, respectively) and more than an order of magnitude lower in the slowest experiments (~?10^5.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 0.8?±?0.2 µm² h^?1, respectively). Both nucleation and growth rates are highest at high degrees of disequilibrium. We find that peak supersaturation-dependent instantaneous rates are generally more than an order of magnitude faster than average rates. We use those instantaneous nucleation and growth rates to introduce an iterative model to evaluate the effects of different decompression rates, decompression paths (continuous, single-step or multistep), and the presence of phenocrysts on final crystallinity and microlite size distribution.     

Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.     

Spatial analysis of water quality and its suitability in farming giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Negeri Sembilan region,Peninsular Malaysia

Finding potential sites for resilient prawn production in the tropical environment that also prevents wastage of natural resources is not an easy task. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water quality suitability for prawn farming in Negeri Sembilan of Peninsular Malaysia based on Geographic Information System (GIS). To achieve this goal, numerous criteria including sources of water, water temperature, water pH, sources of pollution, salinity, soil texture and availability of phytoplankton criteria were considered for the modelling process. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was performed to standardize the criteria and the weighting process. The weighted overlay of indicators and results were accomplished by applying the Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method in GIS. It was indicated that the Negeri Sembilan area has potential for prawn farming. The results showed that about 25 per cent (163 056.93 ha) of the area was most suitable for prawn farming, about 58 per cent (384 656.88 ha) was considered moderately suitable, while 18 per cent (117 633.49 ha) was regarded as least suitable. The study concluded that the multi‐criteria decision analysis of water quality for prawn farming is vital for regional economic planning in the Negeri Sembilan area and also significant when establishing a model for aquaculture development.     

Structure and Distribution of Autumn Zooplankton in the Southeastern Baltic Sea in 2015

Oceanology - Specific features of the structure and distribution of autumn zooplankton in the southeastern Baltic Sea (SEB) in October 2015 have been found taking into account the hydrological and...