Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998–2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.     

Ecohydrographic constraints on biodiversity and distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton in coral reefs of the Red Sea,Saudi Arabia

An integral concept of ecological research is the constraint of biodiversity along latitudinal and environmental gradients. The Red Sea features a natural example of a latitudinal gradient of salinity, temperature and nutrient richness. Coral reefs along the Red Sea coasts are supported with allochthonous resources such as oceanic and neritic phytoplankton and zooplankton; however, relatively little is known about how the ecohydrography correlates with plankton biodiversity and abundance. In this article we present the biodiversity of phytoplankton and zooplankton in Red Sea coral reefs. Oceanographic data (temperature, salinity), water samples for nutrient analysis, particulate organic matter, phytoplankton and zooplankton, the latter with special reference to Copepoda (Crustacea), were collected at nine coral reefs over ~1500 km distance along the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. The trophic state of ambient waters [as indicated by chlorophyll a (Chl a)] changed from strong oligotrophy in the north to mesotrophy in the south and was associated with increasing biomasses of Bacillariophyceae, picoeukaryotes and Synechococcus as indicated by pigment fingerprinting (CHEMTAX) and flow cytometry. Net‐phytoplankton microscopy revealed a Trichodesmium erythraeum (Cyanobacteria) bloom north of the Farasan Islands. Several potentially harmful algae, including Dinophysis miles and Gonyaulax spinifera (Dinophyceae), were encountered in larger numbers in the vicinity of the aquaculture facilities at Al Lith. Changes in zooplankton abundance were mainly correlated to the phytoplankton biomass following the latitudinal gradient. The largest zooplankton abundance was observed at the Farasan Archipelago, despite high abundances of copepodites, veligers (Gastropoda larvae) and Chaetognatha at Al Lith. Although the community composition changed over latitude, biodiversity indices of phytoplankton and zooplankton did not exhibit a systematic pattern. As this study constitutes the first current account of the plankton biodiversity in Red Sea coral reefs at a large spatial scale, the results will be informative for ecosystem‐based management along the coastline of Saudi Arabia.     

Temporal variability in phytodetritus and megabenthic activity at the seabed in the deep Northeast Atlantic

We report a ten-year study of the abundance and activity of megabenthos on the Porcupine Abyssal Plain, northeast Atlantic, together with observations on the occurrence of phytodetritus at the deep-sea floor (4850 m). Using the Southampton Oceanography Centre time-lapse camera system, ‘Bathysnap’, we have recorded a radical change in the abundance and activity of megabenthos between the two periods of study (1991–1994 and 1997–2000). In 1991–1994, the larger megabenthos occurred at an abundance of c. 71.6/ha and were dominated by large holothurians. In addition, there were very substantial populations of smaller megabenthic ophiuroids (c. 4979/ha). Together, the total megabenthos are estimated to track over some 17 cm²/m²/d (exploiting 100% of the surface of the seabed in c. 2.5 years). In 1997–2000, the larger megabenthos increased to an abundance of c. 204/ha and were joined by exceptional numbers of a small holothurian species (Amperima rosea, 6457/ha) and ophiuroids (principally Ophiocten hastatum, 53,539/ha). The total megabenthos population was tracking at an estimnated rate of c. 247 cm²/m²/d (exploiting 100% of seabed in just 6 weeks). Coincident with these increases in the abundance and activity of the megabenthos, there were apparently no mass depositions of aggregated phytodetritus to the seabed in the summers of 1997–1999. Mass occurrences of phytodetritus had been noted during the summer months of the three years previously studied (1991, 1993 and 1994), with covering between 50 and 96% of the sediment surface. There is a statistically significant (p<0.02) negative correlation between maximum extent of this seabed cover of phytodetritus and seabed tracking by megabenthos. Additional studies [Lampitt et al., Progr. Ocean. 50 (2001)], indicate that there were no substantial changes in surface ocean primary productivity, in export flux, or in the composition of the flux that might otherwise account for the apparent absence of observable concentrations of phytodetritus during the summers of 1997–1999. We postulate that the marked increase in megabenthic tracking activity resulted in the removal (via consumption, disaggregation, burial etc.) of the bulk of the incoming phytodetrital flux during these years. A simple conceptual model, based on the apparent phytodetrital fluxes observed in 1991 and 1993, suggests that the megabenthos tracking rates estimated for 1997–1999 are sufficient to account for near-total removal of this flux. However, we are not able to estimate other processes removing phytodetritus (i.e. other elements of the benthos) that may also have increased between 1991–1994 and 1997–1999. Other independent studies [e.g. Ginger et al., Progr. Ocean. 50 (2001)] of flux constituents support the possibility that just a few species of megabenthos (e.g. A. rosea, and O. hastatum) could well have consumed a major proportion of the incoming flux and so substantially modified the composition of the organic matter available to other components of the benthos.     

Clustering and visualization of earthquake data in a grid environment

We present a web client-server service WEB-IS, which we have developed for remote analysis and visualization of seismic data consisting of both small magnitude events and large earthquakes. We show that the problem-solving environment (PSE) intended for prediction of large magnitude earthquakes can be based on this WEB-IS idea. The clustering schemes, feature generation, feature extraction techniques and rendering algorithms form a computational framework of this environment. On the other hand, easy and fast access both to the seismic data distributed among distant computing resources and to computational and visualization resources can be realized in a GRID framework. We discuss the usefulness of NaradaBrokering (iNtegrated Asynchronous Real-time Adaptive Distributed Architecture) as a middleware, allowing for flexibility and high throughput for remote visualization of geophysical data. The WEB-IS functionality was tested both on synthetic and the actual earthquake catalogs. We consider the application of similar methodology for tsunami alerts.     

Crystal nucleation and growth produced by continuous decompression of Pinatubo magma

High-temperature decompression experiments demonstrate that crystal textures preserve a record of the style and rate of magmatic ascent. To reinforce this link, we performed a suite of isothermal decompression experiments using starting material from the climactic 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We decompressed experiments from 220 MPa to final, quench pressures of 75 or 30 MPa using continuous decompression rates of 100, 30, 10, 3, 1, and 0.3 MPa h^?1. Amphibole, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase crystallized during the experiments, with plagioclase microlites dominating the assemblage. Total microlite number densities range from 10^7.6±0.4 up to 10^8.2±0.2 cm^?3, with plagioclase accounting for up to 65% of the total number. Plagioclase microlite area increased systematically from 19?±?8 to 937?±?487 µm² with increasing experiment duration. Our textures provide time-integrated records of crystal kinetics. Average nucleation and areal growth rates of plagioclase are highest in the fastest decompressions (~?10^7.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 10.1?±?4.1 µm² h^?1, respectively) and more than an order of magnitude lower in the slowest experiments (~?10^5.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 0.8?±?0.2 µm² h^?1, respectively). Both nucleation and growth rates are highest at high degrees of disequilibrium. We find that peak supersaturation-dependent instantaneous rates are generally more than an order of magnitude faster than average rates. We use those instantaneous nucleation and growth rates to introduce an iterative model to evaluate the effects of different decompression rates, decompression paths (continuous, single-step or multistep), and the presence of phenocrysts on final crystallinity and microlite size distribution.     

Quantifying internal variability in a regional climate model: a case study for Southern Africa

This study aims at presenting various methodologies to separate the reproducible and irreproducible components of seasonal and intraseasonal climate variability simulated by a regional climate model over Southern Africa (south of 15°S), during an austral summer rainy season representative of the climatology. To that end, a 30-member ensemble simulation is performed using WRF laterally forced by the ERA40 reanalyses. Retained metrics include the analysis of weather regimes, signal-to-noise ratio, inter-member standard deviation and coefficient of variation. At the seasonal timescale, simulated rainfall amounts generally show a strong reproducibility, except in the subtropics and over the southern part of the Mozambique Channel. There, the number of rainy days is roughly similar in all members, while their average intensity varies extensively. At the intraseasonal timescale, the chronology of weather regimes, derived from the 500?hPa geopotential height, is highly reproducible. Rainfall variability is much less reproducible, especially in the central parts of the domain and near its outflow boundaries. Analysis of a South African regional index nonetheless indicates that both wet and dry spells tend to be accurately simulated and occur in phase in most members, demonstrating that they are embedded in large-scale variability patterns. Internal variability is lastly related to the lateral forcings along the domain boundaries. An objective classification of inflow/outflow mass fluxes allows identification of the recurrent synoptic configurations that favor strong or weak regional reproducibility. The main uncertainties concern the basic morphological features of rain-bearing systems (i.e., their spatial extension, location and propagation speed). Consequences for tropical-temperate interactions are then discussed.     

Climate during the last glacial maximum in the Wasatch and southern Uinta Mountains inferred from glacier modeling

Recent improvements in understanding glacial extents and chronologies in the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains and other mountain ranges in the western U.S. call for a more detailed approach to using glacier reconstructions to infer paleoclimates than commonly applied AAR-ELA-ÄT methods. A coupled 2-D mass balance and ice-flow numerical modeling approach developed by [Plummer, M.A., Phillips, F.M., 2003. A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features. Quaternary Science Reviews 22, 1389–1406] allows exploration of the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation and many secondary parameters on past ice extents in alpine settings. We apply this approach to the Little Cottonwood Canyon in the Wasatch Mountains and the Lake Fork and Yellowstone Canyons in the south-central Uinta Mountains. Results of modeling experiments indicate that the Little Cottonwood glacier required more precipitation during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than glaciers in the Uinta Mountains, assuming lapse rates were similar to modern. Model results suggest that if temperatures in the Wasatch Mountains and Uinta Mountains were  6 °C to 7 °C colder than modern, corresponding precipitation changes were  3 to 2× modern in Little Cottonwood Canyon and  2 to 1× modern in Lake Fork and Yellowstone Canyons. Greater amounts of precipitation in the Little Cottonwood Canyon likely reflect moisture derived from the surface of Lake Bonneville, and the lake may have also affected the mass balance of glaciers in the Uinta Mountains.