Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.     

Architecture of fault zones determined from outcrop, cores, 3-D seismic tomography and geostatistical modeling: example from the Albalá Granitic Pluton, SW Iberian Variscan Massif

The 3-D seismic tomographic data are used together with field, core and well log structural information to determine the detailed 3-D architecture of fault zones in a granitic massif of volume 500×575×168 m at Mina Ratones area in the Albalá Granitic Pluton. To facilitate the integration of the different data, geostatistical simulation algorithms are applied to interpolate the relatively sparse structural (hard) control data conditioned to abundant but indirect 3-D (soft) seismic tomographic data. To effectively integrate geologic and tomographic data, 3-D migration of the velocity model from the time domain into the depth domain was essential. The resulting 3-D model constitutes an image of the fault zone architecture within the granitic massif that honours hard and soft data and provides an evaluation of the spatial variability of structural heterogeneities based on the computation of 3-D experimental variograms of Fracture Index (fault intensity) data. This probabilistic quantitative 3-D model of spatially heterogeneous fault zones is suitable for subsequent fluid flow simulations. The modeled image of the 3-D fault distribution is consistent with the fault architecture in the Mina Ratones area, which basically consists of two families of subvertical structures with NNE–SSW and ENE–WSW trends that displaces the surfaces of low-angle faults (North Fault) and follows their seismically detected staircase geometry. These brittle structures cut two subvertical dykes (27 and 27′ Dykes) with a NNE–SSW to N–S trend. The faults present high FI (FI>12) adjacent bands of irregular geometry in detail that intersect in space delimiting rhombohedral blocks of relatively less fractured granite (FI<6). Both structural domains likely correspond with the protolith and the damaged zone/fault core in the widely accepted model for fault zone architecture. Therefore, the construction of 3-D grids of the FI in granitic areas affected by brittle tectonics permits the quantitative structural characterization of the rock massif.     

Timing of deformation in the Norseman-Wiluna Belt, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia

Establishing relative and absolute time frameworks for the sedimentary, magmatic, tectonic and gold mineralisation events in the Norseman-Wiluna Belt of the Archean Yilgarn Craton of Western Australia, has long been the main aim of research efforts. Recently published constraints on the timing of sedimentation and absolute granite ages have emphasized the shortcomings of the established rationale used for interpreting the timing of deformation events. In this paper the assumptions underlying this rationale are scrutinized, and it is shown that they are the source of significant misinterpretations. A revised time chart for the deformation events of the belt is established. The first shortening phase to affect the belt, D₁, was preceded by an extensional event D_1e and accompanied by a change from volcanic-dominated to plutonic-dominated magmatism at approximately 2685–2675 Ma. Later extension (D_2e) controlled deposition of the ca 2655 Ma Kurrawang Sequence and was followed by D₂, a major shortening event, which folded this sequence. D₂ must therefore have started after 2655 Ma—at least 20 Ma later than previously thought and after the voluminous 2670–2655 Ma high-Ca granite intrusion. Younger transcurrent deformation, D₃–D₄, waned at around 2630 Ma, suggesting that the crustal shortening deformation cycle D₂–D₄ lasted approximately 20–30 Ma, contemporaneous with low-volume 2650–2630 Ma low-Ca granites and alkaline intrusions. Time constraints on gold deposits suggest a late mineralisation event between 2640–2630 Ma. Thus, D₂–D₄ deformation cycle and late felsic magmatism define a 20–30 Ma long tectonothermal event, which culminated with gold mineralisation. The finding that D₂ folding took place after voluminous high-Ca granite intrusion led to research into the role of competent bodies during folding by means of numerical models. Results suggest that buoyancy-driven doming of pre-tectonic competent bodies trigger growth of antiforms, whereas non-buoyant, competent granite bodies trigger growth of synforms. The conspicuous presence of pre-folding granites in the cores of anticlines may be a result from active buoyancy doming during folding.     

Old inherited origin for the present near-bimodal topography of Africa

Africa’s landscape is dominated by a manifold of second-order epeirogenic structures superimposed on a first-order bimodal topography. Bivariate regression analysis of Africa’s surface topography shows that this is a complexly folded surface with regionally elevated areas in southern and eastern Africa, and a topographically low northern and western Africa. The apparent spatial relationships between these features are analysed using anomaly correlation between surface topography and free-air gravity anomalies. Occurrences of positively correlated features between gravity and topography in Africa are found to be limited to second-order epeirogenic features. Geophysical modelling and geologic evidence indicate that Africa’s bimodal topography is genetically distinct from these second-order features, and linked to sources as deep as the sublithospheric mantle. The age, measured and modelled elevation of the bimodal topography require that topographic uplift of south-central Africa be episodic. We infer from our findings together with relative sea-level changes, that the near-bimodality of Africa’s topography is an ancient feature inherited at least from upper Paleozoic times. Our reconstructed paleotopography suggests that Africa was largely a low-lying continent dominated by its cratons, and that basement distribution disregards the present-day uplift patterns of Africa.     

Microstructural evolution of the Seridó Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Seridó Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D₁ crust formation at 2.3–2.1 Ga, D₂ thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D₃ strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D₂ and D₃ events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D₂ shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600–650 °C) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz c-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from c-prism to positive and negative a-rhombs. During D₃, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D₃ granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D₃ shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from a-prism to a-basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 °C. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Seridó Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths.     

Computational study of tetrahedral Al–Si and octahedral Al–Mg ordering in phengite

 As part of a wider study of the nature and origins of cation order–disorder in micas, a variety of computational techniques have been used to investigate the nature of tetrahedral and octahedral ordering in phengite, K₂ ^[6](Al₃Mg)^[4](Si₇Al)O₂₀(OH)₄. Values of the atomic exchange interaction parameters J _n used to model the energies of order–disorder were calculated. Both tetrahedral Al–Si and octahedral Al–Mg ordering were studied and hence three types of interaction parameter were necessary: for T–T, O–O and T–O interactions (where T denotes tetrahedral sites and O denotes octahedral sites). Values for the T–T and O–O interactions were taken from results on other systems, whilst we calculated new values for the T–O interactions. We have demonstrated that modelling the octahedral and tetrahedral sheets alone and independently produces different results from modelling a whole T–O–T layer, hence justifying the inclusion of the T–O interactions. Simulations of a whole T–O–T layer of phengite indicated the presence of short-range order, but no long-range order was observed. Received: 8 August 2002 / Accepted: 14 February 2003 Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to EPSRC (EJP) and the Royal Society (CIS) for financial support. Monte Carlo simulations were performed on the Mineral Physics Group's Beowulf cluster and the University of Cambridge's High Performance Computing Facility.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

Strontium isotope evolution of Late Permian and Triassic seawater

The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values based on brachiopods and conodonts define a nearly continuous record for the Late Permian and Triassic intervals. Minor gaps in measurements exist only for the uppermost Brahmanian, lower part of the Upper Olenekian, and Middle Norian, and only sparse data are available for the Late Permian. These 219 measurements include 67 brachiopods and 114 conodont samples from the Tethyan realm as well as 37 brachiopods and one conodont sample from the mid-European Middle Triassic Muschelkalk Sea. The Late Permian/Lower Triassic interval is characterized by a steep 1.3 × 10⁻³ rise, from 0.7070 at the base of the Dzhulfian to 0.7082 in the late Olenekian, a rate of change comparable to that in the Cenozoic. In the mid-Triassic (Anisian and Ladinian), the isotope values fall to 0.7075, followed again by a rise to 0.7081 in the Middle/Late Norian. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values decline again in the Late Norian (Sevatian) and Rhaetian to 0.7076.The sharp rise in the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values during the Late Permian/Early Triassic was coincident with widespread clastic sedimentation. Because of the paucity of tectonic uplifts, the enhanced erosion may have been due to intermittent humid phases, during mainly an arid interval, coupled with the absence of a dense protective land plant cover following the mass extinction during the latest Permian. The apex of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr curve at the Olenekian/Anisian boundary coincides with cessation of the large-scale clastic sedimentation and also marks the final recovery of land vegetation, as indicated by the renewed onset of coal formation in the Middle Triassic. The rising ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values from the Middle Carnian to the Late Norian coincide with the uplift and erosion of the Cimmeride-Indosinian orogens marking the closure of the Palaeotethys. The subsequent Rhaetian decline that continues into Jurassic (Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary), on the other hand, coincides with the opening of the Vardar Ocean and its eastern continuation in the Izmir-Ankara Ophiolitic Belt.Samples from the Upper Muschelkalk are more radiogenic than the global trend. This may reflect separation of the basin from the open ocean. Due to strong meteoric influx from a large land mass in the north, the Germanic Basin became increasing brackish up section in the north and east, but because of the high evaporation rates, the salt content was not much reduced in the southern and central basin where a rich, but increasingly endemic, marine fauna survived.     

Impact of waves on the sea drag: measurements in the Baltic sea and a model interpretation

Measurements from the Baltic Sea and a wind-over-wave coupled model are used to study the wave impact on the sea drag. The study has been carried out for different wave conditions, namely a pure wind-sea, following-swell/ mixed sea and cross-swell/ mixed sea. Measurements reveal the fact that the sea drag is dependent on the sea-state. In stationary conditions and in the absence of severe cross-swell, swell reduces drag compared to wind-sea at the same wind speed. The cross-swell enhances the drag as compared to the following-swell case and the magnitude of the drag coefficient is increased with increasing the angle of swell propagation to the wind. It is shown that the agreement between the model results and measurements is good for pure wind-sea and stationary mixed-sea cases. Discrepancies occur at light winds, where most of the data represent pure swell conditions. During these pure swell conditions the data are characterized by a large variation of the drag coefficient. The variation is caused by mesoscale variability in the stress co-spectra, wind-cross-swell effects and nonstationarity in the wave and wind fields not represented in the model.