一次局地暴雨的地闪特征及其与强降水的关系

利用闪电定位仪每分钟实测资料、加密自动站逐分钟雨量和卫星云图云顶亮温TBB资料,对2013年4月29日西南涡东移过程中MCS产生的局地暴雨地闪特征进行了分析。结果表明：这次过程产生了大量地闪活动,且地闪主要出现在西南涡东侧500 hPa槽前辐合上升运动区、700 hPa暖切南侧850 hPa暖切北部的辐合带、TBB小于等于220 K区域南侧TBB水平梯度大值区的叠置区。整个过程负闪占主导地位,强降水发生在负闪密集区;MCS生命史不同阶段的正负闪频数、密集程度和分布位置是不同的。进一步分析发现单站地闪频数与TBB和强降水在时空变化上有一定的相关性,地闪频数和TBB表现为负相关,即TBB下降到最低值时,地闪频数则到达峰值;逐时地闪频数和雨强均呈单峰分布,负闪频数和强降水发展演变趋势一致,负闪峰值和最大雨峰时刻对应,正闪或和最大雨峰一致或略滞后,正负闪和雨峰的6 min演变趋势呈多峰分布,负闪初现12~18 min后出现降水,负闪突增较强降水有18~24 min的提前量。此个例显示MCS将朝向移动路径前侧的负闪密集区域移动,负闪密集区对局地强降水的落区和强度有较好的指示意义。     

Modelling Pollutant Dispersion in a Street Network

This study constitutes a further step in the analysis of the performances of a street network model to simulate atmospheric pollutant dispersion in urban areas. The model, named SIRANE, is based on the decomposition of the urban atmosphere into two sub-domains: the urban boundary layer, whose dynamics is assumed to be well established, and the urban canopy, represented as a series of interconnected boxes. Parametric laws govern the mass exchanges between the boxes under the assumption that the pollutant dispersion within the canopy can be fully simulated by modelling three main bulk transfer phenomena: channelling along street axes, transfers at street intersections, and vertical exchange between street canyons and the overlying atmosphere. Here, we aim to evaluate the reliability of the parametrizations adopted to simulate these phenomena, by focusing on their possible dependence on the external wind direction. To this end, we test the model against concentration measurements within an idealized urban district whose geometrical layout closely matches the street network represented in SIRANE. The analysis is performed for an urban array with a fixed geometry and a varying wind incidence angle. The results show that the model provides generally good results with the reference parametrizations adopted in SIRANE and that its performances are quite robust for a wide range of the model parameters. This proves the reliability of the street network approach in simulating pollutant dispersion in densely built city districts. The results also show that the model performances may be improved by considering a dependence of the wind fluctuations at street intersections and of the vertical exchange velocity on the direction of the incident wind. This opens the way for further investigations to clarify the dependence of these parameters on wind direction and street aspect ratios.     

大别山西侧极端降水中尺度对流系统结构与传播特征

2012年7月12—13日中国鄂东北连续2 d出现特大暴雨,过程最大总雨量达600 mm。重点利用卫星、雷达和地面自动气象站观测资料等,分析了7月12日大别山西南侧极端强降水型中尺度对流系统的发生发展过程、结构和传播特征等。研究表明:(1)鄂东北特大暴雨是由一个向后传播-准静态α中尺度强对流系统(后向建立中尺度对流系统)产生的。(2)该类型中尺度对流系统频发于鄂东北地区,与鄂东北东侧大别山脉对雷暴冷池的阻挡有密切关系。主要表现在,大别山山脉对雷暴冷池的阻挡导致冷空气在山前堆积并形成回流,回流使中尺度对流系统传播由向下风方转为向上风方。(3)向后传播方式演变的中尺度对流系统因少动或因列车效应明显,常在山前一定距离内产生极端强降水。(4)雷暴冷池向上风方运动导致对流单体向后向传播,是指状对流云团形成的重要机制之一。     

The Bow City structure,southern Alberta,Canada: The deep roots of a complex impact structure?

Geological and geophysical evidence is presented for a newly discovered, probable remnant complex impact structure. The structure, located near Bow City, southern Alberta, has no obvious morphological expression at surface. The geometry of the structure in the shallow subsurface, mapped using downhole geophysical well logs, is a semicircular structural depression approximately 8 km in diameter with a semicircular uplifted central region. Detailed subsurface mapping revealed evidence of localized duplication of stratigraphic section in the central uplift area and omission of strata within the surrounding annular region. Field mapping of outcrop confirmed an inlier of older rocks present within the center of the structure. Evidence of deformation along the eastern margin of the central uplift includes thrust faulting, folding, and steeply dipping bedding. Normal faults were mapped along the northern margin of the annular region. Isopach maps reveal that structural thickening and thinning were accommodated primarily within the Belly River Group. Evidence from legacy 2‐D seismic data is consistent with the subsurface mapping and reveals additional insight into the geometry of the structure, including a series of listric normal faults in the annular region and complex faulting within the central uplift. The absence of any ejecta blanket, breccia, suevite, or melt sheet (based on available data) is consistent with the Bow City structure being the remnant of a deeply eroded, complex impact structure. Accordingly, the Bow City structure may provide rare access and insight into zones of deformation remaining beneath an excavated transient crater in stratified siliciclastic target rocks.     

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than ?1.7 W m^?2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC.     

近10a湖北省强降水时空分布特征与主要天气概念模型

利用湖北省78个气象站逐小时雨量和地面风场资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及新一代天气雷达资料和卫星云图资料,对湖北省1999—2009年208例强降水过程的时空分布、雨团源地和路径、雨强特征、主要影响天气系统进行了普查分析。结果表明:湖北省强降水源地主要位于鄂西山区和江汉平原南部,在不同引导气流的作用下,强降水雨团主要有6条活动路径;强降水频发区主要位于孝感、黄冈北部和宜昌等地,孝感是全省强降水频发中心;影响强降水的天气系统主要有干线(又称露点锋,下同)、湿舌、暖切顶部辐合区、冷切尾部辐合区、气流汇合区、涌线、地面辐合线;根据干线的不同作用和影响方式,将湖北省180个干线类强降水分成干侵入型、干混合型、干锋生型和暖干型四种类型。基于对动力、水汽、不稳定三个条件以及强降水落区等显著特征的总结分析,归纳出四种干线类强降水的天气概念模型。     

Climatic indices in the interpretation of the phenological phases of the olive in mediterranean areas during its biological cycle

The present study implemented a regional phenological model that was derived through the growing season index and adapted to a widespread Mediterranean species, the olive (Olea europaea L.). This model considers not only individual phenological events, but also the main vegetative and reproductive phenological phases of the species, in an integrated biological approach. The regional model generally does not need to include specific meteorological variables calculated as weekly or monthly averages which could limit the extrapolation over large areas. The main climatic limitations of the olive cultivation areas in the south Mediterranean at latitudes around 10° (practically speaking, the geographical limits of the olive) are estimated here. This analysis uses information relating to local climatic changes over the last two decades (1990–1999, 2000–2009) to provide interpretations of the temperature, solar radiation rate, and evapotranspiration trends. This has allowed creation of a Mediterranean phenological model adapted to the olive, which presents the contemporary climate requirements during winter and the warm summer season. The climate analysis and comparisons of these two decades has allowed us to reveal a reduction in the index according to the minimum temperature, which has particular consequences in the northern monitoring areas. This phenomenon appears to present new positive scenarios for the future regarding a northward shift of olive cultivation areas, due to the potential enlargement of the growing season in winter. However, negative scenarios can also be foreseen in consideration of the failure to satisfy the minimum chilling requirements in the traditional southern cultivation areas of the olive.     

Loss on ignition vs. thermogravimetric analysis: a comparative study to determine organic matter and carbonate content in sediments

Journal of Paleolimnology - Mass loss at specified temperatures has been used widely to determine amounts of organic matter and carbonate in sediment samples. The loss on ignition (LOI) method is...     

First microbialites associated to organic-rich facies of the Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (Northern Tunisia,Cenomanian–Turonian transition)

From northern Tunisia, small-scale well-preserved microbialites, contemporaneous to the global oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE 2) are first reported on the southern Tethyan Margin. These microbialites are encased within the pelagic organic-rich black shales of the Bahloul Formation (Cenomanian–Turonian transition). Biostratigraphic, petrographic, and geochemical investigations carried out to constrain their biogenicity and genesis character led to consider them as thrombolites and stromatolites occurring in lenticular bioherms/biostromes and columnar bodies co-relatable to the global ‘filament event’ of the authors, close to the base of the Watinoceras ammonite zone. Abundant clotted micrite, cyanobacterial filaments, and algal tissues point to the key process of microbial carbonate precipitation and to a major role played by microbes in the stabilisation and subsequent lithification, which in turn favoured the preservation of the original structure of the microbialites. These microbially induced carbonate formations are considered as favoured by chemosynthetic fauna of bivalve molluscs and lithistid sponges which were able to host symbiotic microbial communities. The latter contributed to the precipitation of authigenic calcite and non-carbonate minerals (e.g. pyrite) fuelled by microbial activity under sulphate-reducing conditions. The carbonate body onset is considered to be initiated by seafloor instability due to syndepositional fault acting that induced the appraisal of uplifted tilted blocks within oxygenated waters but near the anoxic water masses. Generated depressions allowed the development of chemosynthetic-based communities. Deep faults related to Triassic salt domes acted as conducts for hydrocarbon and salt brine expulsion to the seafloor and the microbialite growth was enhanced by an abrupt uprising sea level under warmer conditions.