Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

岭参数确定的研究

中文阐述了多种岭参数确定方法的原理,如岭迹法、L曲线法、两步解法、GCV法和双h公式法,应用数据编程比较了各种岭参数计算方法所得的结果及对最小二乘估计的改进效果.结果表明,L-曲线法易于确定岭参数,是一种确定岭参数的良好方法.此外,两步解作为另一种解算病态问题的方法,不仅要明显优于LS估计,并且改善了L-曲线法的计算结...     

An approach to aid INS using time-differenced GPS carrier phase (TDCP) measurements

This paper presents a simple and effective approach that incorporates single-frequency, L1 time-differenced GPS carrier phase (TDCP) measurements without the need of ambiguity resolution techniques and the complexity to accommodate the delayed-state terms. Static trial results are included to illustrate the stochastic characteristics and effectiveness of the TDCP measurements in controlling position error growth. The formulation of the TDCP observation model is also described in a 17-state tightly-coupled GPS/INS iterative, extended Kalman filter (IEKF) approach. Preliminary land vehicle trial results are also presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the TDCP which provides sub-meter positional accuracies when operating for more than 10 min.     

Studies of the formation process of water-in-oil emulsions

This paper summarizes studies to determine the formation process of water-in-oil emulsions and the stability of such emulsions formed in the laboratory and in a large test tank. These studies have confirmed that water-in-oil mixtures can be grouped into four states: stable emulsions, unstable water-in-oil mixtures, mesostable emulsions, and entrained water. These states are differentiated by rheological properties as well as by differences in visual appearance. The viscosity of a stable emulsion at a shear rate of one reciprocal second is about three orders of magnitude greater than that of the starting oil. An unstable emulsion usually has a viscosity no more than about 20 times greater than that of the starting oil. A stable emulsion has a significant elasticity, whereas an unstable emulsion does not. A mesostable emulsion has properties between stable and unstable, but breaks down within a few days of standing. The usual situation is that emulsions are either obviously stable, mesostable, or unstable. Entrained water, water suspended in oil by viscous forces alone, is also evident. Very few emulsions have questionable stability. Analytical techniques were developed to test these observations.

The type of emulsion produced is determined primarily by the properties of the starting oil. The most important of these properties are the asphaltene and resin content and the viscosity of the oil. The composition and property ranges of the starting oil that would be required to form each of the water-in-oil states are discussed in this paper.     

Fast lagrangian particle tracking in unstructured ocean model grids

Ocean Dynamics - Lagrangian particle tracking, based on currents derived from hydrodynamic models, is an important tool in quantifying bio-physical transports in the ocean. Particle tracking in the...     

山东海阳断裂东石兰沟段晚更新世以来地表断错特征与最大潜在地震估计

海阳断裂是胶东半岛NE向牟平 -即墨断裂带东部一条规模较大的断裂 ,尽管晚更新世以来该断裂的地表断错活动总体上已基本停息 ,但东石兰沟段在晚更新世晚期以来仍有断错地表的活动。最后一次断错地表的活动发生在距今 3 7～ 1 2万年 ,但接近 1 2万年。地表破裂长度约6 5km ,活动段长度 8km。地表断错以走滑活动为主 ,可见最大倾滑位移 0 2m ;根据断层擦痕侧伏角推测最大水平位移 1 13m。最后一次断错地表的活动若以距今 1 2万年计算 ,则最大平均倾滑速率为 0 0 17mm/a ;最大平均右旋走滑速率为 0 0 94mm/a。野外观测到该活动段的断错活动表现为突发断错 ,根据地震地表破裂参数、活动段长度与地震的关系 ,估计其最大潜在地震为 6 级     

安徽及近邻区地震烈度衰减特征研究

利用安徽及近邻区地震烈度资料,采用椭圆衰减模型和长轴可转向与近、远场补点方法,通过多元回归方法进行拟合,建立该地区地震烈度衰减关系。该衰减关系用于安徽地震应急指挥技术系统震害快速评估模块,为地震灾害损失快速评估提供基础资料;也可用于安徽地区地震安全性评价、震害预测等防震减灾领域。     

Estimation of surface roughness (z0) over a stabilizing coastal dune field based on vegetation and topography

Accurate knowledge of the surface roughness and the resultant wind speed are important for many applications, such as climatic models, wind power meteorology, agriculture and erosion hazards, especially on sand dunes in arid and semi‐arid environments, where vegetation cover is scarce. In this study we aimed at quantifying the effects of vegetation cover and topography on surface roughness over a stabilizing dune field on the southern coast of Israel. Forty‐six wind measurements were made at various distances from the coastline, ranging from 10 to 2800 m, and z₀ values were calculated from the wind measurements based on the ratio between the wind gust and the average wind speed. We estimated vegetation cover using the soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) from Landsat satellite images for the upwind sector at various lengths, ranging from 15 to 400 m, and based on digital elevation models and differential GPS field measurements we calculated the topographic variable of the relative heights of the stations. z₀ values were positively correlated with the winter SAVI values (r = 0·87 at an upwind length of 200 m) and negatively correlated with the relative height (r = ?0·68 at an upwind length of 200–400 m for the inland dune stations). Using these variables we were able to create a map of estimated z₀ values having an accuracy of over 64%. Such maps provide a better understanding of the spatial variability in both wind speed and sand movement over coastal dune areas. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.