Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Ex situ cultivation of Aplysinaaerophoba close to in situ conditions: ecological, biochemical and histological aspects

Sponges provide the largest number of biologically active natural products known from the marine environment and continue to be a very well studied phylum of marine fauna. The Mediterranean sponge Aplysina aerophoba accumulates brominated isoxazoline alkaloids such as Aplysinamisin-1, Aerophobin-2, Isofistularin-3 and the biotransformation product Aeroplysinin-1, which possesses, for example, antibiotic and cytotoxic properties. Until now, it is still being discussed which organisms – the sponge itself or associated microorganisms – are responsible for metabolite production. For cultivating Aplysina individuals under ex situ conditions, we surveyed relevant ecological factors in situ and controlled them in our aquarium system. We maintained A. aerophoba for more than 9 months and analysed changes of metabolite content and composition, microbial association as well as morphology in situ and ex situ under different light exposure. Although sponges showed slight reduction during maintenance, ex situ cultivation similar to in situ conditions provides a promising method to keep sponges and obtain their bioactive metabolites.     

Using Shoreline Video Assessment for coastal planning and restoration in the context of climate change in Kien Giang,Vietnam

Kien Giang, bordering Cambodia in the Mekong River Delta, is one of the two most vulnerable provinces in the region to coastal erosion and flooding. Coastal protection can conflict with current land use and economic development activities. The conditions of the mangrove forest and mainland coastline of the Kien Giang province were assessed using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method (SVAM) backed up with information from satellite images. Half of the 206 km Kien Giang coastline has been eroded or is being eroded. Protective mangrove forests naturally occurred in 74% of the coastline but have been under threat from illegal cutting, erosion and coastal retreat. Accurate information on the state of the coastline and mangrove forest health provided invaluable data for developing a new coastal rehabilitation plan to guard against future sea level rise. In contrast to the current boundary management of land and natural resources, this plan divided the provincial coastline into 19 sections based on the landscape condition and exposure to erosion. Priority strategic actions for erosion management, mangrove restoration and sustainable livelihood development for local communities for each section of coast were developed based on an integrated cross sectoral approach and practical experience in the Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project.

     

Exponential leap-forward gradient scheme for determining the isothermal layer depth from profile data

Two distinct layers usually exist in the upper ocean. The first has a near-zero vertical gradient in temperature (or density) from the surface and is called the isothermal layer (or mixed layer). Beneath that is a layer with a strong vertical gradient in temperature (or density), called the thermocline (or pycnocline). The isothermal layer depth (ILD) or mixed layer depth (MLD) for the same profile varies depending on the method used to determine it. Also, whether they are subjective or objective, existing methods of determining the ILD do not estimate the thermocline (pycnocline) gradient. Here, we propose a new exponential leap-forward gradient (ELG) method of determining the ILD that retains the strengths of subjective (simplicity) and objective (gradient change) methods and avoids their weaknesses (subjective methods are threshold-sensitive and objective methods are computationally intensive). This new method involves two steps: (1) the estimation of the thermocline gradient G _th for an individual temperature profile, and (2) the computation of the vertical gradient by averaging over gradients using exponential leap-forward steps. Such averaging can filter out noise in the profile data. Five existing methods of determining the ILD (difference, gradient, maximum curvature, maximum angle, and optimal linear fitting methods) as well as the proposed ELG method were verified using global expendable bathythermograph (XBT) temperature and conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) datasets. Among all the methods considered, the ELG method yielded the highest skill score and the lowest Shannon information entropy (i.e., the lowest uncertainty).     

Development of a passive transform margin: Côte d’Ivoire–Ghana transform margin – ODP Leg 159 preliminary results

The Côte d’Ivoire–Ghana transform margin is bounded to the south by a prominent marginal ridge. ODP Leg 159 shipboard analyses on sediments from four sites document three distinct transform margin sedimentary and tectonic stages of evolution: (1)?an intracontinental stage of transform faulting recorded in deformed lacustrine to marine siliciclastic sequences; (2)?a marginal ridge uplift stage, recorded by shallow water limestones, appears coeval with the passing of a hot, oceanic spreading center just south of the sediment wedge; and (3)?cool ing subsidence of the transform margin recorded in bathyal to abyssal sediments emphasizes a passive margin stage. These results are consistent with previously published models of evolution.     

On topographic coupling of surface and internal tides

The problem of the generation of internal tides through the interaction of surface tides with oceanic bottom topography is re-examined, taking into account the horizontal components of the Earth's rotation. It is shown that previous models that have omitted these terms may be readily extended to include them, and changes in the magnitude and character of the barotropic to baroclinic conversion are estimated. For semi-diurnal tides the energy conversion is increased, but only by about 2%. However, the character of the waves differs at high latitudes, where the phase and location of the wave energy may change by as much as 14%. Accordingly, inclusion of these terms is recommended in future studies with these models.