A Sustainability Framework for Enhancing the Long-Term Success of Lulucf Projects

Collateral impacts of land use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects, especially those concerning social and environmental aspects, have been recognized as important by the Marrakech Accords. The same applies to the necessity of assessing and, if possible, of quantifying the magnitude of these impacts. This article aims to define, clarify and structure the relevant social, economic and environmental issues to be addressed and to give examples of indicators that ought to be included in the planning, design, implementation, monitoring, and ex post evaluation of LULUCF projects. This is being done by providing a conceptual framework for the assessment of the sustainability of such projects that can be used as a checklist when dealing with concrete projects, and that in principle is applicable to both Annex I and non-Annex I countries. Finally, a set of recommendations is provided to further develop and promote the proposed framework.     

Bed load transport on the shoreface by currents and waves

Tide-driven bed load transport is an important portion of the net annual sediment transport rate in many shoreface and shelf environments. However, bed load transport under waves cannot be measured in the field and bed load transport by currents without waves is barely measurable, even in spring tidal conditions. There is, consequently, a strong lack of field data and validated models. The present field site was on the shoreface and inner shelf at 2 to 8.5 km offshore the central Dutch coast (far outside the surfzone), where tidal currents flow parallel to the coast. Bed load transports were carefully measured with a calibrated sampler in spring tidal conditions without waves at a water depth of 13–18 m with fine and medium sands. The near-bed flow was measured over nearly a year and used for integration to annual transport rates. An empirical bed load model was derived, which predicts bed load transports that are a factor of > 5 smaller than predicted by existing models. However, they agree with laboratory data of sand and gravel transport in currents near incipient motion. The damped transport rates may have been caused by cohesion of sediment or turbulence damping due to mud or biological activity. The annual bed load transport rate was calculated using a probability density function (pdf) derived from the near-bed current and orbital velocity data which represented the current and wave climate well when compared to 30 years of data from a nearby wave station. The effect of wave stirring was included in the transport calculations. The net bed load transport rate is a few m²/year. This is much less than predicted in an earlier model study, which is partly due to different bed load models but also due to the difference in velocity pdf. The annual transport rate is very sensitive to the probability of the largest current velocities.     

Tidal Stress Patterns on Europa's Crust

The ice crust of Europa probably floats over a deep liquid-water ocean, and has been continually resurfaced by tectonic and thermal processes driven by tides. Tidal working causes rotational torque, surface stress, internal heating, and orbital evolution. The stress patterns expected on such a crust due to reorientation of the tidal bulge by non-synchronous rotation and due to orbital eccentricity, which introduces periodic ('diurnal') variations in the tide, are shown as global maps. By taking into account the finite rate of crack propagation, global maps are generated of cycloidal features and other distinctive patterns, including the crack shapes characteristic of the wedges region and its antipode on the sub-Jovian hemisphere. Theoretical maps of tidal stress and cracking can be compared with observed tectonics, with the possibility of reconstructing the rotational history of the satellite.     

Faulting history at the eastern termination of the High Atlas Fault (Western High Atlas,Morocco)

At its eastern termination, the High Atlas Fault in the Western High Atlas in Morocco, consists of a splay of three faults. In the interjacent fault blocks, Neo- and Paleoproterozoic basement, forming the northernmost extremity of the NW-African Craton, is cropping out. The Precambrian basement witnesses a long history of brittle deformation starting at the end of the Pan-African Orogeny. A subsequent episode of normal faulting can be related to the development of a Hercynian basin along the northern passive margin of the cratonic promontory. With regard to the main tectonic activity in the Western High Atlas, basically two models exist: one emphasising block tectonics reflecting Mesozoic rifting followed by Alpine uplift and inversion, the other emphasising Late Paleozoic dextral wrench tectonics. The analysis of the fault activity along the splay faults reveals a predominantly Alpine history, consisting of the Triassic development of the Atlas Rift along the axial zone of the orogen, followed by uplift and inversion. The Late Jurassic to Cenozoic fault activity took place in a sinistral transpressive regime and was partitioned over the three splay faults. Dextral strike-slip fault activity could not be demonstrated in the fault blocks nor along the splay faults. Therefore the faults were probably not involved in Late Paleozoic dextral wrench tectonics.     

Estimation of persistence and trends in geostrophic wind speed for the assessment of wind energy yields in Northwest Europe

Wind climate in Northwest Europe is subject to long-term persistence (LTP), also called the Hurst phenomenon. Ignorance of LTP causes underestimation of climatic variability. The quantification of multi-year variability is important for the assessment of the uncertainty of future multi-year wind yields. Estimating LTP requires long homogeneous time series. Such series of wind observations are rare, but annual mean geostrophic wind speed (U) can be used instead. This study demonstrates a method to estimate the 10-year aggregated mean U for the near and the far future and its uncertainty in Northwest Europe. Time series of U were derived from daily sea level pressure from the European Climate Assessment Dataset. Minor inhomogeneities cannot be ruled out, but were shown to hardly affect the estimated Hurst exponent $(\hat{H})$ . A maximum likelihood method was adjusted to remove the biases in $\hat{H}$ . The geostrophic wind speed over the North Sea, the British Isles and along the Scandinavian coast are characterised by statistically significant H between 0.58 and 0.74, (H?=?0.5 implies no LTP). The additional affect of the parameter uncertainty is estimated in a Bayesian way and is highly dependent on the record length. The assessment of structural changes in future wind fields requires general circulation models. An ensemble of seventeen simulations (ESSENCE) with one single climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) was used to evaluate structural trends and LTP. The estimated $\hat{H}$ in the ESSENCE simulations are generally close to 0.5 and not significant. Significant trends in U are found over large parts of the investigated domain, but the trends are small compared to the multi-year variability. Large decreasing trends are found in the vicinity of Iceland and increasing trends near the Greenland coast. This is likely related to the sea ice retreat within the ESSENCE simulations and the associated change in surface temperature gradients.     

Radial growth change of temperate tree species in response to altered regional climate and air quality in the period 1901–2008

Both increasing and decreasing 20th century growth trends have been reported in forests throughout Europe, but only for few species and areas suitable modelling techniques have been used to distinguish individual tree growth (operating on a local scale) from growth change due to exogenous factors (operating on a broad geographical scale). This study relates for the first time observed growth changes, in terms of basal area increment (BAI) of dominant trees of pedunculate oak, common beech and Scots pine, in north-west European temperate lowland forests (Flanders) to climate, atmospheric CO₂ and tropospheric O₃ concentrations, N deposition, site quality and forest structure for more than a century (the period 1901?C2008), applying mixed models. Growth change during the 20th century is observed for oak (increasing growth) and beech (increasing growth until the 1960s, growth decline afterwards), but not for pine. It was possible to relate growth change of oak and beech to climate time series and N deposition trends. Adding time series for CO₂ and O₃ concentration did not significantly improve model results. For oak and beech a switch from positive to negative growth response with increasing nitrogen deposition throughout time is observed. Growth increase for oak is mainly determined by the interaction between growing season temperature and soil water recharge. It is reasonable to assume that the observed growth trend for oak will continue for as long as early season water availability is not compromised. The decreasing trend in summer relative air humidity observed since the 1960s in the study area can be a main cause of recent beech BAI decrease. A further growth decline of beech can be expected, independent of site quality.     

Modelling the Effect of Tree Foliage on Sprayer Airflow in Orchards

The effect of tree foliage on sprayer airflow through pear trees in a fruit orchard was studied and modelled in detail. A new three-dimensional (3-D) computational fluid dynamics model that integrates the 3-D canopy architecture with a local closure model to simulate the effect of the stem and branches and leaves of trees separately on airflow was developed. The model was validated with field observations made in an experimental orchard (pcfruit, Sint-Truiden, Belgium) in spring and summer 2008 and was used to investigate the airflow from three air-assisted orchard sprayers (Condor V, Duoprop and AirJet quatt). Velocity magnitudes were measured before and behind leafless and fully-leafed pear canopies across the row while the operating sprayers are passing along the row, and were compared with the simulations. The simulation results predicted the measured values well with all the local relative errors within 20%. The effect of foliar density on airflow from the three air assisted sprayers was manifested by changing the magnitude and direction of the sprayers’ air velocity behind the canopy, especially at the denser regions of the canopy and by changing the pattern of velocity decay horizontally along the jet. The developed methodology will also allow a thorough investigation of atmospheric airflow in canopy structures.     

Impact of vegetation variability on potential predictability and skill of EC-Earth simulations

Climate models often use a simplified and static representation of vegetation characteristics to determine fluxes of energy, momentum and water vapour between surface and lower atmosphere. In order to analyse the impact of short term variability in vegetation phenology, we use remotely-sensed leaf area index and albedo products to examine the role of vegetation in the coupled land–atmosphere system. Perfect model experiments are carried out to determine the impact of realistic temporal variability of vegetation on potential predictability of evaporation and temperature, as well as model skill of EC-Earth simulations. The length of the simulation period is hereby limited by the availability of satellite products to 2000–2010. While a realistic representation of vegetation positively influences the simulation of evaporation and its potential predictability, a positive impact on 2?m temperature is of smaller magnitude, regionally confined and more pronounced in climatically extreme years.     

In situ identification of a CAI candidate in 81P/Wild 2 cometary dust by confocal high resolution synchrotron X-ray fluorescence

We detected additional CAI-like material in STARDUST mission samples of comet 81P/Wild 2. Two highly refractory cometary dust fragments were identified in the impact track 110 [C2012, 0, 110, 0, 0] by applying high resolution synchrotron induced confocal and conventional XRF analysis (HR SR-XRF). The use of a polycapillary lens in front of the detector for confocal spectroscopy dramatically improves the fidelity of particle measurements by removing contribution from the surrounding aerogel. The high spatial resolution (300 × 300 nm²; 300 × 1000 nm²) obtained allowed the detailed non-destructive in situ (trapped in aerogel) study of impacted grains at the sub-μm level.For the two largest particles of the track, the terminal particle and a second particle along the impact track, Ca concentration is up to 30 times higher than CI and Ti is enriched by a factor of 2 compared to CI. High resolution (HR) SR-XRF mapping also reveals that the highest concentrations of Ca, Ti, Fe (and Ni) measured within each grain belongs to different areas of the respective maps which indicate that the particles are composed of several chemically diverse mineral phases. This is in agreement with the finding of a complex phase assemblage of highly refractory minerals in the first ever detected Stardust mission CAI grain “Inti” of Track 25.Principle component analysis (PCA) is a powerful tool for extracting the dominant mineral components and was applied to the two grains indicating that regions in the terminal particle and the second particle are consistent with anorthite or grossite and gehlenite, monticellite or Dmitryivanovite (CaAl₂O₄), respectively.Our new findings demonstrate that the HR SR-XRF with confocal geometry and PCA analysis is capable of identifying CAI-like fragments without the need to extract particles from the aerogel matrix which is a time-consuming, complex and destructive process.Furthermore, the detection of new CAI-like fragments in the coma dust of comet 81P/Wild 2 strengthens the observation that strong mixing effects and, therefore, mass transport before or during comet formation must have occurred at least up to the region where Kuiper Belt comets formed (30 AU).