On ‘bimodality of the solar cycle’ and the duration of cycle 21

The period-growth dichotomy of the solar cycle predicts that cycle 21, the present solar cycle, will be of long duration (>133 mo), ending after July 1987. Bimodality of the solar cycle (i.e., cycles being distributed into two groups according to cycle length, based on a comparison to the mean cycle period) is clearly seen in a scatter diagram of descent versus ascent durations. Based on the well-observed cycles 8–20, a linear fit for long-period cycles (being a relatively strong inverse relationship that is significant at the 5% level and having a coefficient of determination r ² 0.66) suggests that cycle 21, having an ascent of 42 mo, will have a descent near 99 mo; thus, cycle duration of about 141 mo is expected. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 occurs on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet is associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. A comparison of individual cycle, smoothed sunspot number curves for cycles 21 and 11 reveals striking similarity, which suggests that if, indeed, cycle 21 is a long-period cycle, then it too may have an extended tail of sustained, low, smoothed sunspot number, with cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.     

Ultraviolet solar irradiance measurement from 200 to 358 nm during spacelab 1 mission

The paper presents the results obtained from the UV-spectrometer of the Solar Spectrum Experiment during the Spacelab 1 mission in December 1983. The irradiance data concern 492 passbands, which are located between 200 and 358 nm at almost equidistant wavelengths separated by about 0.3 nm. The passbands have a well-defined, bell-shaped profile with a full width at half maximum of about 1.3 nm. The data, which have an error budget between 4 and 5%, agree closely with the spectral distributions observed by Heath (1980) and Mentall et al. (1981) and confirm that the solar irradiance and the fluxes of Sun-like stars show about the same spectral distribution down to at least 240 nm.     

On the proposed associations of solar neutrino flux with solar particles,cosmic rays,and the solar activity cycle

It has been proposed that the observed solar neutrino flux exhibits important correlations with solar particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the sunspot cycle, with the latter correlation being opposite in phase and lagging behind the sunspot cycle by about one year. Re-examination of the data-available interval 1971–1981, employing various tests of statistical significance, however, suggests that such a claim is, at present, unwarrantable. For example, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic-ray flux with the Ap geomagnetic index, neither were found to be statistically significant (at the 95% level of confidence), regardless of the choice of lag (-1, 0, or +1 yr). Presuming linear fits, all correlations with Ap had coefficients of determination (r ², where r is the linear correlation coefficient) less than 16%, meaning that 16% of the variation in the selected test parameters could be explained by the variation in Ap. Similarly, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic ray flux with sunspot number, only the latter association proved to be of statistical importance. Using the best linear fits, the correlation between yearly averages of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 19%, the correlation between weighted moving averages (of order 5) of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 45%, and the correlation between cosmic-ray flux and sunspot number had r ² 76%, all correlations being inverse associations. Solar neutrino flux was found not to correlate strongly with cosmic-ray flux, and the Ap geomagnetic index was found not to correlate strongly with sunspot number.     

Evidence for interacting loop process in a phase of the May 16, 1981 flare

The behaviour of the flare in the period of enhancement and maximum of hard X-ray, microwave and decimetric type IV continuum is analysed. The elongation of the H ribbons and microwave source disclose that the energy release site was shifting through a system of loops with a velocity less than 200 km s^-1, and that the energy was carried down the field lines with a velocity of about 1000 km s^-1, implying the thermal conduction front mechanism of energy transport. Several processes of energy release are considered and it is concluded that an explanation in terms of succeeding interactions of neighbouring loops, involving fast reconnection of their poloidal components is in best agreement with the observations.Proceedings of the Second CESRA Workshop on Particle Acceleration and Trapping in Solar Flares, held at Aubigny-sur-Nère (France), 23–26 June, 1986.     

Spectral variations in CH Cygni during the activity phase in 1982

Rapid variations of the radial velocities of absorption components of Ti II lines in CH Cyg are presented. The periods of these variations are determined to 1.89 and 41.07 days in 1982. The variations are interpreted through oscilliations in the mass transfer from the M component onto the accretion disk of the companion during periastron passage.Paper presented at the IAU Colloquium No. 93 on Cataclysmic Variables. Recent Multi-Frequency Observations and Theoretical Developments, held at Dr. Remeis-Sternwarte Bamberg, F.R.G., 16–19 June, 1986.     

Group Doppler effect in anisotropic plasmas

In anisotropic plasmas, the radiative power emitted and the power observed per unit solid angle should be calculated along the direction of the group velocityv _g . The two power functions referred differ by a product of two factors: one is the group Doppler factor and the other is the squeezing effect of the radiative energy due to the dependence ofv _g on direction. In this paper, the group Doppler factor is derived using two different methods, and the relevant physical concepts are analyzed in details. A number of numerical examples pertaining to astrophysical situations are presented, to illustrate the significance of the group Doppler effect with respect to the wave Doppler effect which is valid in isotropic media.     

Velocity-height relation for antimatter meteors

A general velocity-height relation for both antimatter and ordinary matter meteor is derived. This relation can be expressed as % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSaaaeaacq% aHfpqDdaWgaaWcbaGaamOEaaqabaaakeaacqaHfpqDdaWgaaWcbaGa% eyOhIukabeaaaaGccqGH9aqpcaqGLbGaaeiEaiaabchacaqGGaWaam% WaaeaacqGHsisldaWcaaqaaiaadkeaaeaacaWGHbaaaiaabwgacaqG% 4bGaaeiCaiaabIcacaqGTaGaamyyaiaadQhacaGGPaaacaGLBbGaay% zxaaGaeyOeI0YaaSaaaeaacaWGdbaabaGaamOqaiabew8a1naaBaaa% leaacqGHEisPaeqaaaaakmaacmaabaGaaGymaiabgkHiTiaabwgaca% qG4bGaaeiCamaadmaabaGaeyOeI0YaaSaaaeaacaWGcbaabaGaamyy% aaaacaqGLbGaaeiEaiaabchacaqGOaGaaeylaiaadggacaWG6bGaai% ykaaGaay5waiaaw2faaaGaay5Eaiaaw2haaiaacYcaaaa!64FD!\[\frac{{\upsilon _z }}{{\upsilon _\infty }} = {\text{exp }}\left[ { - \frac{B}{a}{\text{exp( - }}az)} \right] - \frac{C}{{B\upsilon _\infty }}\left\{ {1 - {\text{exp}}\left[ { - \frac{B}{a}{\text{exp( - }}az)} \right]} \right\},\]where _z is the velocity of the meteoroid at height z, its velocity before entrance into the Earth's atmosphere, is the scale-height, and C parameter proportional to the atom-antiatom annihilation cross- section, which is experimentally unknown. The parameter B (B = DA₀/m) is the well known parameter for koinomatter (ordinary matter) meteors, D is the drag factor, ₀ is the air density at sea level, A is the cross sectional area of the meteoroid and m its mass.When the annihilation cross-section is zero — in the case of ordinary meteors — the parameter C is also zero and the above derived equation becomes % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSaaaeaacq% aHfpqDdaWgaaWcbaGaamOEaaqabaaakeaacqaHfpqDdaWgaaWcbaGa% eyOhIukabeaaaaGccqGH9aqpcaqGLbGaaeiEaiaabchacaqGGaWaam% WaaeaacqGHsisldaWcaaqaaiaadkeaaeaacaWGHbaaaiaabwgacaqG% 4bGaaeiCaiaabIcacaqGTaGaamyyaiaadQhacaGGPaaacaGLBbGaay% zxaaGaaiilaaaa!4CF5!\[\frac{{\upsilon _z }}{{\upsilon _\infty }} = {\text{exp }}\left[ { - \frac{B}{a}{\text{exp( - }}az)} \right],\]which is the well known velocity-height relation for koinomatter meteors.In the case in which the Universe contains antimatter in compact solid structure, the velocity-height relation can be found useful.Work performed mainly at the Nuclear Physics Laboratory of the National University of Athens, Greece.     

Integration error over very long time spans

The main limit to the time span of a numerical integration of the planetary orbits is no longer set by the availability of computer resources, but rather by the accumulation of the integration error. By the latter we mean the difference between the computed orbit and the dynamical behaviour of the real physical system, whatever the causes. The analysis of these causes requires an interdisciplinary effort: there are physical model and parameters errors, algorithm and discretisation errors, rounding off errors and reliability problems in the computer hardware and system software, as well as instabilities in the dynamical system. We list all the sources of integration error we are aware of and discuss their relevance in determining the present limit to the time span of a meaningful integration of the orbit of the planets. At present this limit is of the order of 10⁸ years for the outer planets. We discuss in more detail the truncation error of multistep algorithms (when applied to eccentric orbits), the coefficient error, the method of Encke and the associated coordinate change error, the procedures used to test the numerical integration software and their limitations. Many problems remain open, including the one of a realistic statistical model of the rounding off error; at present, the latter can only be described by a semiempirical model based upon the simpleN ² formula (N=number of steps, =machine accuracy), with an unknown numerical coefficient which is determined only a posteriori.     

Outmigration patterns in development transition of rural areas

Using a broadened concept of migration, which includes circulatory migration and commuting, this paper maintains that the patterns of outmigration vary a great deal when the level of development of a rural area is treated as an independent variable. This study uses a stratified conditional sample of 192 households selected from 3 areas: 53 households from a low developed (LDL) area, 56 from a medium (MDL), and 83 from a high (HDL). Data were collected by personal observation, interview, and genealogical methods at both the household and individual level. The households are divided into 3 main categories: 1) non-migrating, 2) commuting only, and 3) migrating (which is further divided into migrating within and migrating outside the boundaries of the district). Results show that 1) 37.51% of household members neither commute nor have migrated outside the village; 2) using the narrow definition of migration, only 10% of males over age 15 migrate, while including commuting in the definition increases the percentage to 40; 3) proportions of non-migrating households decrease from 58.4% for the LDL, to 35.7% for the MDL, to 25.3% for the HDL area; 4) the proportion of commuting only households increases from 26.4% for the LDL, to 35.7% to the MDL, and 55.4% for the HDL area; 5) 15.2% of households in the LDL, 28.6% in the MDL, and 19.3% in the HDL area experience a permanent change in residence; 6) as development accelerates, the overall volume of outmigration increases; 7) the flow of migration from rural to rural areas is mostly limited to the MDL area, while cityward migration increasingly occurs on both LDL and HDL areas; 8) the median age of commuters increases with rising levels of development; and 9) almost all migrants from the LDL area are employed in low prestige occupations, most from the HDL area have higher prestige jobs, and those from the MDL area have both high and low prestige jobs.     

Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.