Assessment of coastal flooding hazard along the Emilia Romagna littoral,IT

Aim of this paper is to develop simple tools for mapping — at regional and local scale — coastal areas exposed at flooding risk. A two-step simplified procedure for coastal management purposes is presented and is applied to Emilia Romagna (Italy), whose low and sandy coast faces the relatively mild Northern Adriatic Sea. The procedure is composed by a 1D conceptual model to determine flooding probability along wide coastal stretches and by a more detailed 2D Level II reliability method, that provides local quantitative statistical maps of inland flooding propagation. Qualitative maps obtained by literature approaches and quantitative results of flooding probability along the littoral show a good agreement. A coastal flood state indicator is proposed to rapidly assess coastal hazard.     

Exoplanet atmospheres with EChO: spectral retrievals using EChOSim

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory mission concept for constraining the atmospheric properties of hot and warm gas giants and super Earths. Synthetic primary and secondary transit spectra for a range of planets are passed through EChOSim [13] to obtain the expected level of noise for different observational scenarios; these are then used as inputs for the NEMESIS atmospheric retrieval code and the retrieved atmospheric properties (temperature structure, composition and cloud properties) compared with the known input values, following the method of [1]. To correctly retrieve the temperature structure and composition of the atmosphere to within 2 σ, we find that we require: a single transit or eclipse of a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like (G2) star at 35 pc to constrain the terminator and dayside atmospheres; 20 transits or eclipses of a warm Jupiter orbiting a similar star; 10 transits/eclipses of a hot Neptune orbiting an M dwarf at 6 pc; and 30 transits or eclipses of a GJ1214b-like planet.     

Assessing vulnerability due to sea-level rise in Maui, Hawai‘i using LiDAR remote sensing and GIS

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE LiDAR ground returns (point data classified as ground after the removal of vegetation and buildings) indicated that another round of filtering could reduce commission errors. Two SLR scenarios of 0.75 (best-case) to 1.9 m (worst-case) (Vermeer and Rahmstorf Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21527–21532, 2009) were considered, and the DEMs were used to identify areas vulnerable to flooding. Our results indicate that if no adaptive strategies are taken, a loss ranging from $18.7 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $296 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for Hydrologically Connected (HC; marine inundation) and Hydrologically Disconnected (HD; drainage problems due to a higher water table) areas combined is possible for Kahului; a loss ranging from $57.5 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $394 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for HC and HD areas combined is possible for Lahaina towards the end of the century. This loss would be attributable to inundation between 0.55 km² to 2.13 km² of area for Kahului, and 0.04 km² to 0.37 km² of area for Lahaina.     

Comparison of the Energy Spectra and Number Fluxes From a simple Flare Model to Observations

In this paper, we investigate the energy spectra produced by a simple test particle X-point model of a solar flare for different configurations of the initial electromagnetic field. We find that once the reconnection electric field is larger than 1 Vm^-1 the particle distribution transits from a heated one to a partially accelerated one. As we close the separatrices of the X-point and the angle in the inflow direction widens we find that more particles are accelerated out of the thermal distribution and this power–law component extends to lower energies. When we introduce a guiding magnetic field component we find that more particles are energised, but only up to a maximum energy dictated primarily by the reconnection electric field. Despite being able to accelerate particles to observable energies and demonstrate behaviour in the energy spectra that is consistent with observations, this single X-line model can only deliver the number fluxes required for microflares.     

A Relationship Between Transition Region Brightenings,Abundances, and Magnetic Topology

We present multi-instrument observations of active region (AR) 8048, made between 3 June and 5 June 1997, as part of the SOHO Joint Observing Program 33. This AR has a sigmoid-like global shape and undergoes transient brightenings in both soft X-rays and transition region (TR) lines. We compute a magneto-hydrostatic model of the AR magnetic field, using as boundary condition the photospheric observations of SOHO/MDI. The computed large-scale magnetic field lines show that the large-scale sigmoid is formed by two sets of coronal loops. Shorter loops, associated with the core of the SXT emission, coincide with the loops observed in the hotter CDS lines. These loops reveal a gradient of temperature, from 2 MK at the top to 1 MK at the ends. The field lines most closely matching these hot loops extend along the quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) of the computed coronal field. The TR brightenings observed with SOHO/CDS can also be associated with the magnetic field topology, both QSL intersections with the photosphere, and places where separatrices issuing from bald patches (sites where field lines coming from the corona are tangent to the photosphere) intersect the photosphere. There are, furthermore, suggestions that the element abundances measured in the TR may depend on the type of topological structure present. Typically, the TR brightenings associated with QSLs have coronal abundances, while those associated with BP separatrices have abundances closer to photospheric values. We suggest that this difference is due to the location and manner in which magnetic reconnection occurs in two different topological structures. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1013302317042     

The Magnetic Structure and Generation of EUV Flare Ribbons

The `ribbons' of two-ribbon flares show complicated patterns reflecting the linkages of coronal magnetic field lines through the lower solar atmosphere. We describe the morphology of the EUV ribbons of the July 14, 2000 flare, as seen in SOHO, TRACE, and Yohkoh data, from this point of view. A successful co-alignment of the TRACE, SOHO/MDI and Yohkoh/HXT data has allowed us to locate the EUV ribbon positions on the underlying field to within ∼ 2′′, and thus to investigate the relationship between the ribbons and the field, and also the sites of electron precipitation. We have also made a determination of the longitudinal magnetic flux involved in the flare reconnection event, an important parameter in flare energetic considerations. There are several respects in which the observations differ from what would be expected in the commonly-adopted models for flares. Firstly, the flare ribbons differ in fine structure from the (line-of-sight) magnetic field patterns underlying them, apparently propagating through regions of very weak and probably mixed polarity. Secondly, the ribbons split or bifurcate. Thirdly, the amount of line-of-sight flux passed over by the ribbons in the negative and positive fields is not equal. Fourthly, the strongest hard X-ray sources are observed to originate in stronger field regions. Based on a comparison between HXT and EUV time-profiles we suggest that emission in the EUV ribbons is caused by electron bombardment of the lower atmosphere, supporting the hypothesis that flare ribbons map out the chromospheric footpoints of magnetic field lines newly linked by reconnection. We describe the interpretation of our observations within the standard model, and the implications for the distribution of magnetic fields in this active region.     

First-order asymptotics for the eigenfrequencies of the Earth and application to the retrieval of large-scale lateral variations of structure

Summary . We present a variety of examples, showing systematic fluctuations as a function of angular order of measured eigenfrequencies for given normal modes of the Earth. The data are single station measurements from the GEOSCOPE network. Such fluctuations are attributed to departures from the lowest order asymptotic expression of the geometrical optics approximation. We derive first-order asymptotic expressions for the location parameter for all three components of the Earth's motion, by a method based on the stationary phase approximation and geometric relations on the unit sphere.
We illustrate the sensitivity of the fluctuations to the different parameters involved (source parameters, epicentral distance, laterally heterogeneous earth model) with synthetic examples corresponding to GEOSCOPE observations. Finally, we show the results of first attempts at inversion, which indicate that, when the fluctuations are taken into account, more accurate estimates of the great circle average eigenfrequencies can be obtained, and additional constraints put on the structure in the neighbourhood of the great circle.     

A simple method for calculating growth rates of petroleum hydrocarbon plumes

Consumption of aquifer Fe(III) during biodegradation of ground water contaminants may result in expansion of a contaminant plume, changing the outlook for monitored natural attenuation. Data from two research sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons show that toluene and xylenes degrade under methanogenic conditions, but the benzene and ethylbenzene plumes grow as aquifer Fe(III) supplies are depleted. By considering a one-dimensional reaction front in a constant unidirectional flow field, it is possible to derive a simple expression for the growth rate of a benzene plume. The method balances the mass flux of benzene with the Fe(III) content of the aquifer, assuming that the biodegradation reaction is instantaneous. The resulting expression shows that the benzene front migration is retarded relative to the ground water velocity by a factor that depends on the concentrations of hydrocarbon and bioavailable Fe(III). The method provides good agreement with benzene plumes at a crude oil study site in Minnesota and a gasoline site in South Carolina. Compared to the South Carolina site, the Minnesota site has 25% higher benzene flux but eight times the Fe(III), leading to about one-sixth the expansion rate. Although it was developed for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes, the growth-rate estimation method may have applications to contaminant plumes from other persistent contaminant sources.