GRAPES_GFS 2.0模式系统误差评估

通过选取2014年1月、4月、7月、10月的GRAPES_GFS 2.0预报产品和NCEP FNL分析资料进行对比分析,发现GRAPES_GFS 2.0的系统误差具有以下特性:位势高度场误差的空间分布具有纬向条带状或波列状特征,误差大值集中在中高纬度地区,低纬度地区误差较小。误差在南北半球各自的冬季最大、夏季最小,并呈现明显的季节变化特征。误差随预报时效的增速略低于线性增速且不同预报时效下误差随高度变化的曲线趋势相似。温度场误差的空间分布相对均匀,误差大值位于30°S~30°N附近地区。纬向风场误差没有十分明显的分布规律,与纬度变化、海陆分布和地形的关系均不密切,西风误差和东风误差交替出现。结果表明:模式对冬季中高纬度地区和边界层及对流层顶的模拟技巧尚需提高。明确GRAPES_GFS 2.0的系统误差分布特性,有助于有针对性地进行模式订正,改善误差大值区域的模式预报方法。     

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.     

一次致灾大暴雪的多尺度系统配置及落区分析

利用高时空分辨率T6390场预报资料、FY-2C卫星资料和Doppler雷达产品,详细分析了2010年2月23日发生在新疆天山北坡中部致灾大暴雪的多尺度系统和物理量场配置以及发生时间和落区.结果表明,南北支短波槽的合并、加强使得冷暖空气强烈交汇是造成大暴雪的主要环流背景,低空急流、辐合线和切变线是大暴雪的主要触发机制,低空急流输送的大量水汽和高低空急流的有利配合有助于低层上升运动加强,为暴雪强度的增强提供了有利条件.大暴雪发生在南北支短波槽交汇处、高空急流入口区右后方辐散区、低空西南暖湿急流出口区左侧辐合区、辐合线前部、切变线南侧以及地面冷锋附近的重叠区域内.大暴雪期间中高层辐散大于中低层辐合,上升运动强盛且深厚,水汽辐合强烈、湿层深厚.中-α和中-β尺度冷云团是造成大暴雪的主要系统,降雪强度、范围和持续时间与冷云团强度、面积及其生命史呈正相关,大暴雪发生在冷云团内部局地增强及强中心维持阶段,并位于TBB≤-65℃的中-α尺度和TBB≤-70℃的中-β尺度冷云团边缘的TBB梯度最大处.强降雪时段雷达回波呈带状分布,回波移动方向与带状长轴方向一致,使得降雪时间较长;回波强度演变、强中心范围与降雪量分布及强降雪中心范围基本一致,强降雪中心的回波强度达35～40 dBz,回波强度梯度大,“S”形速度场曲率大,垂直累积液态水含量有短时的跃增过程,回波演变具有短时弱对流特征.     

攀枝花“数字城管”中的基础空间信息共享策略研究

本文通过分析“数字城管”实施过程中基础空间信息共享的技术难题,在充分考虑现有的网络条件、软件平台、坐标系统的基础上,提出了基础空间信息共享的技术实现途径,包括适用于通用条件的WMS和WFS技术以及适用于特定软件环境的专用技术,对不同条件的“数字城管”的实施具有一定的参考意义。     

基于NDVI城镇土地利用变化检测探讨

通过归一化植被指数（NDVI）结合影像差值,对经过辐射校正后的1993年和2005年武汉地区TM影像进行了土地利用变化检测,与监督法分类进行比较,得出NDVI更宜于实现变化信息探测和提取。     

浅析《三峡库区地图集》的设计特点与主要技术

详细论述了《三峡库区地图集》的内容结构与编排体系的设计特点、版面设计与表达创新,以及图集制作的主要技术问题和处理方法。     

基于SuperMap的空间大数据可视化技术研究与应用

人类正从IT时代走向DT时代,诸多的技术手段使大数据处理技术能够从大规模数据中分析出相关模式或趋势,让我们对海量数据的价值挖掘充满了期待.当可视化呈现让大数据的潜力达到最大时,以往未被观察到的现象或趋势很容易被发现,用户能够快速地获得更多信息,发现他们所需要的价值.因此,如何最大化地呈现大数据中隐含的价值变得尤为关键.本文将重点研究空间大数据的可视化方法,充分发挥数据可视化的作用,帮助用户挖掘隐藏在空间大数据中的价值.     

城市地理信息查询系统的应用与研究

随着社会经济的不断发展,信息技术已经成为当前社会最主要的一个特征。在我国目前的城市发展中,信息已经成为发展中的一个重要因素。而作为城市,一般都具有人口密集、信息资源丰富、科学技术发达等特色,从这一方面来说,在城市中实现地理信息查询系统是非常有必要的。而且目前信息化技术水平已经有了提高,这在一定程度上也为城市地理信息查询系统的研究和实现奠定了良好的技术基础。本文具体对关于WebGIS城市地理信息查询系统在城市中的应用进行分析,以促进这一技术在城市的发展。     

基于嵌入式开发的便携式水域测量系统

基于水下地形测量原理,通过设计全新的船体结构和双动力系统,加载船载的GPS RTK和测深仪,完成了测量船的基本制造装配。通过开发岸基控制模块自动导航软件及基于嵌入式的船载控制模块,实现了遥控测量船的水下地形数据采集和远程控制功能。     

Comparison of Cu and Zn cycling in eutrophic lakes with oxic and anoxic hypolimnion

Data on the cycling of Cu and Zn in two eutrophic lakes are presented: Lake Greifen that becomes seasonally anoxic in its hypolimnion and Lake Sempach that is aerated during winter and oxygenated during summer. They suggest that hypolimnetic oxygenation 1) enhances the release of copper from the sediment but 2) also accelerates the entrapment and deposition of Cu and Zn by freshly formed Mn- and Fe-oxides.