Unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling for a multiple media reservoir

The paper deals with unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling of underground fluid in a multiple media reservoir. Assuming spherical vugs, symmetrically distributed pressure, negligible inter-porosity flow between matrix and vug systems and centrifugal flow of the fluid from matrix blocks or vugs to fractures, and treating media directly connected with wellbore as the fracture system, we establish and solve a model of unsteady inter-porosity flow for dual and triple porosity media reservoirs. We provide simulated graphs of pressure and pressure derivative log-log type curves, and analyze the transient flow process and characteristics of type curves affected by different parameters. The new type curves of unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling are evidently different in shape and characteristics from those of pseudo-steady inter-porosity flow modeling. The location of dimensionless pressure of unsteady inter-porosity is lower than that of pseudo-steady inter-porosity, which indicates that unsteady inter-porosity flow accelerates an energy supplement during production. Qualitatively, the unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling reduces the classical V-shaped response. We also estimated parameters from well test data in real applications using this model.     

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水电工程坝址区构造应力场三维数值反演

以水电工程实例为背景,在现场调查和地应力测量的基础上,采用三维数值技术对水电站坝址区小范围内构造应力场进行了反演分析,通过对三维模型施加不同量值、不同方向的边界载荷,对比分析应力拟合点处的计算主应力与实测主应力之间的差别,从而得到最合理的边界载荷的量值和方向,即为坝址区构造应力场的量值和方向。计算结果表明：水电站坝址区构造应力场σ₁方向为S50°－60°E,量值为6～7 MPa;σ₃方向为N50°－60°E,量值为3～4 MPa。反演计算得到的坝址区构造应力场方向与区域应力场方向吻合,主应力量值也在合理范围内。     

辽河流域土壤酸化与作物籽实镉生物效应的地球化学预警

土壤酸化及其引发的生态安全问题是公众广泛关注、全球研究的热点。辽河流域多目标区域地球化学调查结果显示：当土壤中的w(CaO+K2O)≥3.86%时,土壤对酸性沉降物具有缓冲能力;当w(CaO+K₂O)<3.86%时,则土壤对酸性沉降物的缓冲能力显著下降。利用土壤酸化缓冲能力的地球化学预测模型,对全流域土壤酸化的缓冲能力进行了预测,指出辽河流域东部,即营口-鞍山-辽阳-沈阳-抚顺-铁岭-开源的广大区域内既是土壤酸化的脆弱区,也是作物籽实Cd超标的预警区,辽河流域土壤酸化区域将进一步扩大。     

极端干旱区不同下垫面土壤凝结水试验研究

为了探讨极端干旱区植被生长季的土壤凝结水特征, 采用微渗计和中子仪, 于2010 年6-7 月对塔里木河下游地区胡杨林、柽柳丛和裸地3 种典型下垫面密封和不密封处理的土壤凝结水的变化特征、形成时间及其影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:微渗计和中子仪观测结果均显示观测期间裸地产生的土壤凝结水总量最大, 其次为柽柳丛, 而胡杨林形成的土壤凝结水总量最小。观测期间研究区凝结现象从21:00-22:00 左右开始, 02:00-03:00 左右达到第一个峰值前, 随着近地表气温和地温的降低, 土壤凝结水量呈增加的趋势。不密封处理产生的土壤凝结水量显著大于密封处理的(t<0.01)。柽柳丛土壤日均凝结水量最大, 其次为裸地, 胡杨林最小。方差分析显示, 不同下垫面类型土壤的日均凝结水量之间存在极显著差异(P<0.01)。3 种下垫面土壤凝结水量的变化趋势基本一致, 均呈双峰曲线。凝结过程一般从22:00 左右持续到次日09:00 左右。土壤凝结水量主要受气温、大气相对湿度、表层地温、风速以及下垫面等因素的影响。研究结果可以为生态退化区的植被恢复提供一定的理论依据。     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

蒙古南戈壁欧玉陶勒盖铜(金)矿床地质特征及其对我国找矿勘查工作的启示

近二十年来,蒙古南戈壁成矿带在寻找大宗金属矿产方面取得丰硕成果,发现了欧玉陶勒盖和查干苏布尔加等与古亚洲洋晚泥盆世岛弧演化有关的大型斑岩型矿床。研究表明:1)欧玉陶勒盖—查干苏布尔加地区在法门期弧岩浆与矿化作用之后,经历了短暂的抬升和剥蚀过程,随后被石炭纪火山-沉积岩所覆盖。两个矿床皆被埋藏于法门期(D_3)—杜内期(C_1)不整合面之下;2)矿床现今出露于石炭纪—二叠纪岩体包围的"天窗"中,矿体能否保存与其上覆岩层遭受的剥蚀程度有关;3)近EW向展布的蒙古南戈壁成矿带在欧玉陶勒盖—查干苏布尔加地区受三叠纪—早白垩世准巴彦断裂左旋走滑运动的影响,局部转变为NE走向,向东可延伸至中国境内东乌旗一带。因此,在中国内蒙古东乌旗地区开展的找矿勘查工作应重点关注法门期(D_3)—杜内期(C_1)不整合之下的晚泥盆世侵入体及其围岩,并在成矿远景区进行相应的区域构造解析研究。     

深埋电极的地电阻率观测研究

首先研究了四极观测系统装置系数与电极埋深的关系;然后给出了点电流源在3层地壳模型的地表和第二层时,电源所在层的电位的解析表达式;最后将天津宝坻地区的电性结构简化成一个3层模型,计算给出了当地表层和基岩中的电阻率出现变化时,在地表和基岩上层开展四极地电阻率观测结果与供电极距和深度的关系.     

用超长基线解算分析汶川地震动态形变特征

以远距离的IGS武汉GPS站为参考站,用超长基线双差瞬时精密定位技术,获取汶川Ms8.0地震震时震区连续GPS站1 Hz动态形变序列。同时以较近距离的雅安站为参考站解算动态形变序列,结果显示,两者的形变结果具有很好的一致性。距离断层较近的郫县、成都、绵阳、中江等站形变较大（形变最大的郫县站最大振幅达1.034 m）;位于震中南侧的邛崃、雅安等站形变较小。利用动态时序的地震波到时和震中距离估计地震波地壳平均速度为3.1 km/s。