Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

深埋电极的地电阻率观测研究

首先研究了四极观测系统装置系数与电极埋深的关系;然后给出了点电流源在3层地壳模型的地表和第二层时,电源所在层的电位的解析表达式;最后将天津宝坻地区的电性结构简化成一个3层模型,计算给出了当地表层和基岩中的电阻率出现变化时,在地表和基岩上层开展四极地电阻率观测结果与供电极距和深度的关系.     

用超长基线解算分析汶川地震动态形变特征

以远距离的IGS武汉GPS站为参考站,用超长基线双差瞬时精密定位技术,获取汶川Ms8.0地震震时震区连续GPS站1 Hz动态形变序列。同时以较近距离的雅安站为参考站解算动态形变序列,结果显示,两者的形变结果具有很好的一致性。距离断层较近的郫县、成都、绵阳、中江等站形变较大（形变最大的郫县站最大振幅达1.034 m）;位于震中南侧的邛崃、雅安等站形变较小。利用动态时序的地震波到时和震中距离估计地震波地壳平均速度为3.1 km/s。     

马鞍山-铜陵-安庆长江沿线上地壳速度结构成像

利用安徽人工震源地下结构探测科学实验开展的三维高分辨探测数据,以及初至波走时成像技术,获得了沿长江一线上地壳速度结构成像结果。结果显示,沿长江从马鞍山至安庆,上地壳速度结构存在明显横向差异,沉积盖层厚度和浅表速度在该区呈现明显的隆升和坳陷相间的构造特征,显示了该区域中生代以来经历的隆升和伴随着岩浆活动的伸展作用。     

A new model for analyzing nonlinear torsion behavior of concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular section

An experimental study on concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular section subjected to compressionflexure-torsion combined action has been carried out. The failure modes and load-deformation hysteretic relations were obtained. Based on the principles of classical material mechanics, the relations between the torsion curvature of the section and the shear strain of the fiber on the section were established. Then the strain distribution on the rectangular section of concrete filled steel tube columns subjected to torsion was analyzed. The three-dimensional refined finite element model was also built, in order to make the precision verification. The matrix forms of the relation between the torsion curvature of the section and the shear strain of the fiber on the section were derived, and introduced into the fiber beam model considering nonlinear torsion effect on the section. The comparison between test results and calculation results showed that the fiber beam model considering nonlinear torsion effect had high modeling efficiency and solution precision for predicting the torsion behavior of concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular sections, and was suitable for analyzing the dynamic response of various structures subjected to the combined cyclic load caused by the earthquake load.     

High-resolution seismic tomography of the upper crust in the source region of the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake and its seismotectonic implications

Both P- and S-wave arrivals were collected for imaging upper crustal structures in the source region of the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake. High-resolution, three- dimensional P and S velocity models were constructed by travel-time tomography. Moreover, more than 3700 after- shocks of the Lushan earthquake were relocated via a grid search method. The P- and S-wave velocity images of the upper crust show largely similar characters, with high and low velocity anomalies, which mark the presence of sig- nificant lateral and vertical heterogeneity at the source region of the Lushan earthquake. The characteristics of the velocity anomalies also reflect the associated surface geo- logical tectonics in this region. The distributions of high velocity anomalies of both P- and S-waves to 18 km depth are consistent with the distributions of relocated after- shocks, suggesting that most of the ruptures were localized inside the high velocity region. In contrast, low P and S velocities were found in the surrounding regions without aftershocks, especially in the region to the northeast of the Lushan earthquake. For the relocated aftershocks of the Lushan earthquake from this study, we found that mostaftershocks were concentrated in a zone of about 40 km long and 20 km wide, and were located in the hanging wall of Dayi-Mingshan fault. The focal depths of aftershocks increase from the southeast to the northwest region in the direction perpendicular to the fault strike, suggesting that the fault ruptured at an approximate dip angle of 45°. The main depths of the aftershocks in the northwest of the main shock are significantly shallower than expected, revealing the different seismogenic conditions in the source region.     

The characteristics of shear wave splitting in the source region of the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake

Using seismic data of the aftershocks sequence of the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake recorded by seismic temporary and permanent stations in the source region, with the visual inspection of particle motion diagrams, this paper preliminarily contains the polarization directions of fast shear wave and the time-delays of split shear waves at every station, and analyzes the crustal anisotropic characteristics in the source region. In the study area, the polarization direc- tions at stations BAX, TQU, L 132, L 133, L 134, and L 135 are northeast, which is consistent with the strike of Dachuan- Shuangshi fault. There are two polarization directions at MDS and L131, which are northeast and southeast. The scatter of polarization directions suggests the complex stress field around these two stations where two faults intersect. For the normalized time-delays at every station, the range is 1.02-8.64 ms/km. The largest time-delay is from L134 which is closest to the mainshock, and the smallest one is from L133. The variations in time-delays show the decreasing at stations BAX, L134, and L135 because of the stress-relaxation after earthquake.     

无人机获取区域全景图试验

利用无人机灾情快速获取系统,以玉溪县城为工作区域,进行无人机区域航拍试验.通过开展无人机任务单元参数、飞行参数等试验,获得不同成像分辨率要求的最佳任务单元配置参数和飞行参数,获取高质量玉溪城区全景图像.试验证明,无人机灾情获取系统能够为应急救援决策和指挥等提供实时灾情信息,可显著增强快速响应能力.     

The nonlinear hydro-climatic process in the Yarkand River, northwestern China

Based on the hydrologic and meteorological data in the Yarkand River Basin during 1957–2008, the nonlinear hydro-climatic process was analyzed by a comprehensive method, including the Mann–Kendall trend test, wavelet analysis, wavelet regression analysis and correlation dimension. The main findings are as following: (1) The annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation showed an increasing trend during the period of 1957–2008, and the average increase extent in runoff, temperature and precipitation was 2.234 × 10⁸ m³/10 year, 0.223 °C/10 year, and 4.453 mm/10 year, respectively. (2) The nonlinear pattern of runoff, temperature and precipitation was scale-dependent with time. In other words, the annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation at five time scales resulted in five patterns of nonlinear variations respectively. (3) Although annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation presented nonlinear variations at different time scales, the runoff has a linear correlation with the temperature and precipitation. (4) The hydro-climatic process of the Yarkand River is chaotic dynamic system, in which the correlation dimension of annual runoff, annual average temperature and annual precipitation is 3.2118, 2.999 and 2.992 respectively. None of the correlation dimensions is an integer, and it indicates that the hydro-climatic process has the fractal characteristics.